Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven – 8 Feb 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Feb 8 · 15:45 Euroborg, Groningen

Groningen 8th · 31 pts · 21 played DDWLL

First leg2–4 1–2Full time

PSV Eindhoven 1st · 56 pts · 21 played WWWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.

PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Groningen. Groningen had 7.8 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 7.1 and had to travel 211 km.

Away travel211 kmRest days7.8 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Groningen14%

Draw21%

PSV Eindhoven65%

Expected goals 0.90 – 2.13

Groningen14%

Draw21%

PSV Eindhoven65%

Expected goals 0.86 – 2.08

Groningen15%

Draw21%

PSV Eindhoven64%

Expected goals 0.91 – 2.10

Groningen10%

Draw17%

PSV Eindhoven72%

Expected goals 0.80 – 2.39

Groningen15%

Draw22%

PSV Eindhoven63%

Expected goals 0.84 – 1.98

Over 2.5 58% Both score 53% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Groningen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal

Cards per match 2.6
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 44

Team strength

Groningen

PSV Eindhoven

25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

41 AttackIn forecast 60

21 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

PSV Eindhoven

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Groningen

PSV Eindhoven

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.05

1.24 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.19

1.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.92

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.05

-0.24 Goals minus xGContext +1.13

71% Scored inContext 95%

33% Clean sheetsContext 29%

15.24 ShotsContext 17.05

6.15 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.10

38% On target shareContext 42%

8.71 Shots in the boxContext 11.67

58% Box shareContext 69%

9% ConversionContext 18%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.93

10.57 Shots allowedContext 10.86

4.05 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

2.61 BlocksContext 3.11

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.72

67% Save rateContext 69%

52% PossessionIn forecast 61%

421 PassesContext 551

340 Accurate passesContext 479

81% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.81 Team ratingContext 7.09

10.95 FoulsContext 11.52

10.43 Fouls sufferedContext 8.52

1.76 Yellow cardsContext 1.38

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 21 and 21 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.72

1.02 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

-0.60 Goals minus xGContext +0.58

60% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

17.00 ShotsContext 14.00

5.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

33% On target shareContext 43%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.40

56% Box shareContext 63%

7% ConversionContext 16%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.63

9.80 Shots allowedContext 10.70

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

2.50 BlocksContext 2.22

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

65% Save rateContext 64%

55% PossessionIn forecast 58%

454 PassesContext 529

373 Accurate passesContext 454

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.93

10.50 FoulsContext 10.20

9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.20

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Groningen

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km403 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

PSV Eindhoven

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel211 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Groningen	PSV Eindhoven
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 31 Jan	7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	211 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	403 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	5.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Groningen Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1E. Vaessen(G)

2W. Prins 3T. Blokzijl 5M. Rente 16T. Mercera

14J. Schreuders 18T. Land 6S. Resink 17D. van der Werff

26T. van Bergen 10Y. Taha

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

PSV Eindhoven Confirmed XI

4-4-2

24N. Schiks(G)

17Mauro Júnior 4A. Obispo 22J. Schouten 8S. Dest

5I. Perišić 23J. Veerman 10P. Wanner 19E. Bajraktarević

34I. Saibari 20G. Til

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Groningen Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

PSV Eindhoven Scores -0.06 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Groningen-0.6 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
PSV Eindhoven+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Groningen · Home 1.50points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-3
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.90

PSV Eindhoven · Away 3.00points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 10-0-0
Scored: 2.80
Conceded: 0.90

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Groningen	PSV Eindhoven
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–2 AL 0–2 H	W 6–1 H
Fortuna Sittard	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A	W 2–1 AW 5–2 H
Heerenveen	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H	W 2–0 A
NAC Breda	D 0–0 HW 2–1 A	D 2–2 HW 1–0 A
GO Ahead Eagles	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 H
FC Volendam	W 3–0 H	W 3–0 H
Excelsior	W 2–0 A	W 5–1 HW 2–1 A
Ajax	L 0–2 A	D 2–2 H
PEC Zwolle	D 2–2 H	W 4–0 A
NEC Nijmegen	L 0–2 A	W 5–3 A
Twente	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 A
Feyenoord	L 0–1 H	W 3–0 HW 3–2 A
Telstar	W 2–0 H	L 0–2 H
Utrecht	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 A
Heracles	W 4–0 H	W 4–3 H
AZ Alkmaar	L 1–4 A	W 5–1 A
Points	31 of 60 · 1.55 per game	53 of 60 · 2.65 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Groningen wins0 draws3 PSV Eindhoven wins

Goals per game1.00 – 4.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

23 Aug 2025PSV Eindhoven4–2Groningen
5 Apr 2025Groningen1–3PSV Eindhoven
23 Nov 2024PSV Eindhoven5–0Groningen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Groningen	PSV Eindhoven	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	3.05
Conceded per game	1.24	1.19
Match goals	2.57	4.24	3.03
Over 1.5	86%	95%
Over 2.5	43%	81%	58%
Over 3.5	19%	52%
Both teams scored	43%	67%	53%
Clean sheets	33%	29%
Failed to score	29%	5%
Games	21	21

	Groningen	PSV Eindhoven	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	2.90
Conceded per game	1.10	0.90
Match goals	2.20	3.80	3.03
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	30%	80%	58%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	30%	60%	53%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	40%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Groningen	PSV Eindhoven	League
Corners
Corners won	6.25	7.00
Corners conceded	4.10	4.14
Match total	10.35	11.14	10.23
Over 8.5	70% 14/20	81% 17/21
Over 9.5	40% 8/20	81% 17/21
Over 10.5	35% 7/20	52% 11/21
Cards
Cards	1.86	1.43
Opponent cards	1.81	1.76
Match total	3.67	3.19	3.58
Over 3.5	52% 11/21	38% 8/21
Over 4.5	29% 6/21	29% 6/21

	Groningen	PSV Eindhoven	League
Corners
Corners won	7.78	7.50
Corners conceded	3.44	4.20
Match total	11.22	11.70	10.23
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	90% 9/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.60
Opponent cards	1.80	2.50
Match total	3.30	5.10	3.58
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 44 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.52league 3.37

Red cards0.09league 0.21

Cards 5+23%league 31%

Fouls19.9league 21.7

Penalties0.23league 0.26

Home wins57%league 44%

Groningen4 with this referee

Record3-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

W14 Sep 25A · Utrecht1–04
L2 Apr 25A · Feyenoord1–42
W30 Nov 24H · Willem II2–01
W9 Aug 24H · NAC Breda4–11

PSV Eindhoven3 with this referee

Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.0.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W22 Nov 25A · NAC Breda1–01
W13 Jan 24H · Excelsior3–10
W27 Sep 23H · GO Ahead Eagles3–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.