Groningen vs Telstar – 20 Sep 2025

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Sep 20 · 17:45 Euroborg, Groningen

Groningen 7th · 9 pts · 5 played LWLWW

2–0Full time

Telstar 15th · 4 pts · 5 played LLDWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Groningen were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Groningen had 6.2 days of rest, Telstar 6.1 and had to travel 154 km.

Away travel154 kmRest days6.2 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Groningen43%

Draw27%

Telstar31%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.23

Groningen42%

Draw27%

Telstar31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22

Groningen43%

Draw27%

Telstar30%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.23

Groningen35%

Draw27%

Telstar38%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.38

Groningen42%

Draw27%

Telstar31%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.22

Over 2.5 51% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Groningen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsErwin Blank

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.11
Matches 18

Team strength

Groningen

Telstar

25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

41 AttackIn forecast 24

21 DefenceIn forecast 13

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Groningen

Telstar

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

+0.79 Goals minus xGContext -0.36

100% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.00 ShotsContext 14.40

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.60

46% On target shareContext 39%

8.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.80

64% Box shareContext 68%

15% ConversionContext 7%

1.33 OffsidesContext 2.50

14.00 Shots allowedContext 13.40

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

3.60 BlocksContext 4.20

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

60% Save rateContext 67%

49% PossessionIn forecast 45%

382 PassesContext 378

293 Accurate passesContext 307

77% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.90

12.20 FoulsContext 12.00

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29

1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

+0.91 Goals minus xGContext -0.22

80% Scored inContext 71%

20% Clean sheetsContext 43%

13.00 ShotsContext 12.57

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.71

44% On target shareContext 38%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.57

61% Box shareContext 68%

17% ConversionContext 9%

1.20 OffsidesContext 2.50

12.30 Shots allowedContext 13.57

4.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.57

2.70 BlocksContext 4.57

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

61% Save rateContext 72%

47% PossessionIn forecast 42%

376 PassesContext 346

294 Accurate passesContext 272

78% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.93

11.50 FoulsContext 12.29

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.86

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.86

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 7 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Groningen

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km318 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Telstar

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel154 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Groningen	Telstar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Sep	6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	154 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	318 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Groningen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1E. Vaessen(G)

43M. Peersman 4D. Janse 3T. Blokzijl 5M. Rente

6S. Resink 8T. de Jonge

14J. Schreuders 10Y. Taha 17D. van der Werff

26T. van Bergen

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Telstar Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1R. Koeman(G)

2J. Hardeveld 4G. Offerhaus 14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo

39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp 17N. Rossen 16D. Mertens 11T. Noslin

27P. Brouwer 7S. Hetli

30K. Tejan

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Groningen Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Telstar Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Groningen-0.3 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Telstar+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Groningen · Home 3.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 0.50

Telstar · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Groningen	Telstar
PSV Eindhoven	L 2–4 A	W 2–0 A
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Groningen	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.80	1.80
Match goals	3.80	2.80	2.72
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	40%	51%
Over 3.5	60%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	56%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	5	5

	Groningen	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.80	1.80
Match goals	3.80	2.80	2.72
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	40%	51%
Over 3.5	60%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	56%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Groningen	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	3.60	6.75
Corners conceded	5.20	6.25
Match total	8.80	13.00	9.84
Over 8.5	60% 3/5	100% 4/4
Over 9.5	40% 2/5	100% 4/4
Over 10.5	20% 1/5	75% 3/4
Cards
Cards	2.80	1.60
Opponent cards	1.00	0.80
Match total	3.80	2.40	3.59
Over 3.5	60% 3/5	20% 1/5
Over 4.5	20% 1/5	20% 1/5

	Groningen	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	5.67
Corners conceded	4.90	5.50
Match total	8.40	11.17	9.84
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.86
Opponent cards	1.60	1.00
Match total	3.60	2.86	3.59
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	29% 2/7
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	29% 2/7

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Erwin Blank Netherlands · 18 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.44league 3.39

Red cards0.06league 0.20

Cards 5+17%league 37%

Fouls22.4league 22.8

Penalties0.11league 0.15

Home wins50%league 46%

Groningen2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

D12 Jan 25H · Almere City FC0–01
L26 Oct 24A · Fortuna Sittard0–13

Telstar

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.