Groningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Twente were slight favourites.
Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Twente. Groningen had 8.7 days of rest, Twente 6.7 and had to travel 113 km.
Away travel113 kmRest days8.7 · 6.7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Groningen29%
Draw22%
Twente48%
Groningen33%
Draw26%
Twente40%
Groningen29%
Draw23%
Twente48%
Groningen23%
Draw21%
Twente56%
Groningen30%
Draw23%
Twente47%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Groningen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 124
Team strength
Groningen
Twente
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
41
AttackIn forecast
41
21
DefenceIn forecast
49
45
Form indexContext
55
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTwente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GroningenTwente
2.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.33
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.86
2.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.51
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
100%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.50
ShotsContext
22.33
6.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.33
40%
On target shareContext
33%
13.33
Shots in the boxContext
14.33
73%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.67
14.25
Shots allowedContext
8.33
7.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
2.67
BlocksContext
2.50
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
64%
Save rateContext
70%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
439
PassesContext
578
361
Accurate passesContext
508
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.01
8.25
FoulsContext
10.67
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
6.00
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
0.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.54
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.80
ShotsContext
19.38
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.38
36%
On target shareContext
38%
9.78
Shots in the boxContext
13.00
65%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.60
Shots allowedContext
11.50
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.88
3.11
BlocksContext
3.86
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
58%
Save rateContext
65%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
416
PassesContext
483
332
Accurate passesContext
403
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.99
9.40
FoulsContext
8.75
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
7.88
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Groningen
WWLL
Rest8.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km422 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 45 · 6 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Groningen |
Twente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 28 Aug | 6.7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 113 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 422 km | 263 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 3.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Groningen
Confirmed XI
1E. Vaessen(G)
2W. Prins
3T. Blokzijl
4M. Csinger
14J. Schreuders
18T. Land
8T. de Jonge
24P. Clement
26T. van Bergen
17D. van der Werff
9B. Willumsson
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
4Ruud Nijstad
3R. Pröpper
38M. Bruns
28B. van Rooij
8D. Weidmann
6R. Zerrouki
7M. Pjaca
10Y. Taha
27S. Ørjasæter
9W. Weghorst
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Groningen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Twente
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Groningen+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Twente+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Groningen · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Twente · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Groningen wins2 draws2 Twente wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.50
Over 2.525%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 22 Feb 2026Twente2–1Groningen
- 2 Nov 2025Groningen1–1Twente
- 1 Mar 2025Groningen1–1Twente
- 15 Dec 2024Twente2–0Groningen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Groningen | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.75 | 3.33 | 3.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 4 | 3 |
| Groningen | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Groningen | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 7.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.75 | 10.67 | 10.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 0.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 1.67 | 2.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Groningen | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 11.00 | 10.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 0.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 2.30 | 1.90 | 2.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 124 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.27league 2.46
Red cards0.13league 0.05
Cards 5+27%league 14%
Fouls21.8league 20.6
Penalties0.33league 0.19
Home wins44%league 27%
Groningen7 with this referee
Record3-1-3
Cards · opp.1.4 · 0.9
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L25 Apr 26A · Feyenoord1–32
- L22 Feb 26A · Twente1–22
- W13 Dec 25H · FC Volendam3–00
- L23 Aug 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–42
- W25 Jan 25H · Heerenveen1–00
Twente7 with this referee
Record4-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W22 Feb 26H · Groningen2–10
- W26 Sep 25H · Fortuna Sittard3–21
- L18 May 25A · Ajax0–22
- L24 Apr 25H · PSV Eindhoven1–32
- W23 Feb 25H · NEC Nijmegen2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Groningen4 games · scored 9 · conceded 10
3
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Twente3 games · scored 7 · conceded 3
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
5
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 20 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
