Groningen vs Utrecht – 9 Aug 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 9 · 13:30 Euroborg, Groningen

Groningen

2–1Full time

Utrecht

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 27). Groningen had 84 days of rest, Utrecht 84 and had to travel 159 km.

Away travel159 kmRest days84 · 84Matches / 14d0 · 0

Groningen37%

Draw25%

Utrecht37%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.38

Groningen37%

Draw26%

Utrecht37%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.33

Groningen37%

Draw25%

Utrecht37%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.38

Groningen30%

Draw25%

Utrecht45%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.55

Groningen37%

Draw25%

Utrecht38%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.41

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Groningen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 62

Team strength

Groningen

Utrecht

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 38

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

41 AttackIn forecast 32

21 DefenceIn forecast 31

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Utrecht

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Groningen

Utrecht

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.54 xGVia Att/Def 1.72

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

+0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.28

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.40 ShotsContext 16.30

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

37% On target shareContext 40%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 11.30

64% Box shareContext 70%

11% ConversionContext 12%

1.89 OffsidesContext 1.38

12.30 Shots allowedContext 12.60

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.40 BlocksContext 2.56

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

67% Save rateContext 73%

48% PossessionIn forecast 45%

395 PassesContext 373

306 Accurate passesContext 300

78% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.99

9.80 FoulsContext 9.90

9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 8.40

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Groningen

Rest84 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Utrecht

Rest84 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel159 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Groningen	Utrecht
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	84Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 May	84Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	159 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Groningen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1E. Vaessen(G)

2W. Prins 5M. Rente 3T. Blokzijl 14J. Schreuders

18T. Land 8T. de Jonge

24P. Clement 26T. van Bergen 17D. van der Werff

9B. Willumsson

Utrecht Confirmed XI

4-3-3

25M. Brouwer(G)

92A. Zagré 44M. Eerdhuijzen 2S. Horemans 23N. Vesterlund

53Ferdinand Pohl 8J. van Overeem 20D. de Wit

10Y. Cathline 9D. Min 11Ángel Alarcón

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Groningen Absences are shown before kick-off

Utrecht Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Groningen+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Utrecht+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Groningen · Home No home games yet this season.

Utrecht · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Groningen wins0 draws3 Utrecht wins

Goals per game0.75 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%

14 Feb 2026Groningen1–2Utrecht
14 Sep 2025Utrecht0–1Groningen
13 Apr 2025Utrecht3–1Groningen
20 Oct 2024Groningen0–1Utrecht

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Groningen	Utrecht	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.77
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	52%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	56%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Groningen	Utrecht	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.90
Conceded per game	1.30	1.10
Match goals	3.10	3.00	2.77
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	52%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	30%	56%
Clean sheets	30%	60%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Groningen	Utrecht	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	13.60
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.40
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Groningen	Utrecht	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	5.60
Corners conceded	6.33	4.60
Match total	12.11	10.20	13.60
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.40
Opponent cards	0.50	1.10
Match total	1.90	2.50	2.40
Over 3.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 62 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.26league 2.33

Red cards0.15league 0.00

Cards 5+27%league 0%

Fouls22.0league 20.0

Penalties0.24league 0.00

Home wins45%league 33%

Groningen3 with this referee

Record0-2-1 Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.3 Pens for · against1 · 0

D11 Apr 26H · GO Ahead Eagles0–00
D2 Nov 25H · Twente1–12
L23 Nov 24A · PSV Eindhoven0–50

Utrecht6 with this referee

Record4-2-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against1 · 1

W24 Aug 25H · Excelsior4–10
D1 Feb 25A · PEC Zwolle3–30
W3 Nov 24A · Sparta Rotterdam4–11
W21 Sep 24H · Willem II3–22
D21 Jan 24H · PSV Eindhoven1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.