Groningen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Groningen36.7%fair odds 2.72
Draw26.7%fair odds 3.74
Utrecht36.5%fair odds 2.74
Expected goals1.39 – 1.38total 2.77
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Utrecht
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Groningen ↓ · Utrecht → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Groningen goals, columns Utrecht goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.89
- 2–18.3%12.00
- 1–28.3%12.04
- 1–08.1%12.39
- 0–18.0%12.43
- 0–06.9%14.45
- 2–06.0%16.57
- 0–26.0%16.68
- 2–25.8%17.37
- 3–13.9%25.97
Winning margin
6.3%
Groningen by 3+
fair 15.95
10.9%
Groningen by 2
fair 9.15
19.5%
Groningen by 1
fair 5.12
26.7%
Draw
fair 3.74
19.5%
Utrecht by 1
fair 5.14
10.9%
Utrecht by 2
fair 9.21
6.2%
Utrecht by 3+
fair 16.12
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Groningen goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Utrecht goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen win | 36.7% | 36.6% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 26.7% | 26.5% | +0.2 pp |
| Utrecht win | 36.5% | 36.9% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.3% | 53.2% | -0.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.8% | 57.5% | -0.7 pp |
| Expected goals Groningen | 1.39 | 1.40 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Utrecht | 1.38 | 1.41 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Groningen win36.7%2.72
- Draw26.7%3.74
- Utrecht win36.5%2.74
- Double chance Groningen or draw63.5%1.58
- Double chance Groningen or Utrecht73.3%1.36
- Double chance Utrecht or draw63.3%1.58
- Draw no bet Groningen50.1%1.99
- Draw no bet Utrecht49.9%2.01
Goals
- Over 0.593.1%1.07
- Over 1.577.0%1.30
- Over 2.552.3%1.91
- Over 3.530.1%3.33
- Over 4.514.7%6.79
- Under 1.523.0%4.34
- Under 2.547.7%2.09
- Under 3.569.9%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes56.8%1.76
- No43.2%2.31
- Yes and over 2.544.1%2.27
- Groningen win and yes18.5%5.40
- Draw and yes19.8%5.05
- Utrecht win and yes18.4%5.42
Team goals
- Groningen over 0.575.0%1.33
- Groningen over 1.540.3%2.48
- Groningen over 2.516.3%6.13
- Utrecht over 0.574.9%1.34
- Utrecht over 1.540.2%2.49
- Utrecht over 2.516.2%6.17
- Groningen clean sheet25.1%3.98
- Utrecht clean sheet25.0%4.00
- Groningen win to nil18.2%5.49
- Utrecht win to nil18.1%5.53
Handicap
- Groningen −1.517.2%5.81
- Groningen −2.56.3%15.95
- Utrecht +1.582.8%1.21
- Utrecht +2.593.7%1.07
- Utrecht −1.517.1%5.86
- Groningen +1.582.9%1.21
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored6
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result38.8%
1X2 Brier0.692
Over 2.5 called right66.7%
BTTS called right33.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 1 | 47.6% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 3 | 55.6% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 65.4% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 84.4% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 6 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 6 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.