Guimaraes vs Arouca – 8 Aug 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 8 · 18:00 Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

Guimaraes

0–1Full time

Arouca

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Guimaraes were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Arouca. Guimaraes had 84 days of rest, Arouca 84 and had to travel 57 km.

Away travel57 kmRest days84 · 84Matches / 14d0 · 0

Guimaraes42%

Draw25%

Arouca33%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.29

Guimaraes45%

Draw25%

Arouca29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.17

Guimaraes42%

Draw25%

Arouca33%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.29

Guimaraes35%

Draw25%

Arouca40%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.45

Guimaraes42%

Draw25%

Arouca33%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.27

Over 2.5 53% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Guimarães)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalMiguel Nogueira

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 64

Team strength

Guimaraes

Arouca

32 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

28 AttackIn forecast 28

39 DefenceIn forecast 37

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Arouca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Guimaraes

Arouca

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.22 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.97

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

60% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.90 ShotsContext 11.90

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

32% On target shareContext 32%

7.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

56% Box shareContext 58%

9% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

9.30 Shots allowedContext 11.40

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

2.22 BlocksContext 3.56

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.20

65% Save rateContext 63%

56% PossessionIn forecast 49%

419 PassesContext 414

347 Accurate passesContext 346

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.77

13.20 FoulsContext 13.20

14.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Guimaraes

Rest84 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Arouca

Rest84 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel57 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Guimaraes	Arouca
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	84Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 May	84Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	57 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Guimaraes Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

48O. Zych(G)

13J. Teixeira Mendes 28Thiago Balieiro 4Óscar Rivas 2Miguel Maga

8Gonçalo Nogueira 16Beni

7O. Camara 20Samu 11Gustavo Silva

24A. Ndoye

Arouca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12I. de Arruabarrena(G)

21Mateo Flores 3José Fontán 15Javi Sánchez 28Tiago Esgaio

8T. Fukui 6E. van Ee

7N. Djouahra 14Lee Hyun-Ju 19A. Trezza

17Barbero

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Guimaraes Absences are shown before kick-off

Arouca Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Arouca+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Guimaraes · Home No home games yet this season.

Arouca · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Guimaraes wins3 draws2 Arouca wins

Goals per game1.63 – 1.50 Over 2.563% Both scored75% Clean sheets13% · 13%

7 Feb 2026Arouca3–2Guimaraes
30 Aug 2025Guimaraes1–1Arouca
18 Jan 2025Guimaraes2–2Arouca
12 Aug 2024Arouca0–1Guimaraes
18 May 2024Arouca1–3Guimaraes
15 Jan 2024Guimaraes2–1Arouca

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Guimaraes	Arouca	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.79
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	53%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	56%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Guimaraes	Arouca	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.50
Conceded per game	1.60	1.20
Match goals	2.70	2.70	2.79
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	53%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	30%	60%	56%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Guimaraes	Arouca	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Guimaraes	Arouca	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	3.60
Corners conceded	3.90	5.80
Match total	8.50	9.40	10.50
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.10
Opponent cards	2.00	1.90
Match total	4.00	5.00	3.50
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Nogueira Portugal · 64 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.11league 3.50

Red cards0.27league 0.00

Cards 5+47%league 0%

Fouls25.5league 27.5

Penalties0.23league 0.00

Home wins41%league 50%

Guimaraes9 with this referee

Record6-1-2 Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.7 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

L23 Dec 25H · Sporting CP1–44
W14 Sep 25A · Estrela2–00
D18 Jan 25H · Arouca2–21
L7 Dec 24A · Benfica0–11
W3 Nov 24H · Moreirense1–00

Arouca8 with this referee

Record2-5-1 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

L1 Dec 25H · SC Braga0–44
W8 Mar 25A · AVS1–01
D15 Feb 25A · Sporting CP2–23
D18 Jan 25A · Guimaraes2–23
D9 Nov 24A · Famalicao0–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.