Primeira Liga Gameweek 22 Sat, Feb 14 2026 · 18:00 Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
Guimaraes
2–1 Full time · HT 0–1 xG 1.49 – 0.91
Estrela
  • Thiago Balieiro 64’
  • Diogo Sousa 68’
  • 10’ Paulo Moreira
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Guimaraes come from behind to beat Estrela

Guimaraes entered as favourites, yet Estrela led 1–0 at half-time through a Moreira goal. But Balieiro and Sousa scored to turn it around for Guimaraes, who won 2–1. Guimaraes finished with the higher xG (1.49 vs 0.91). On the chances created, Estrela deserved more: 1.0 expected points against the 0 points they took.

Guimaraes ✓57%
Draw25%
Estrela19%

Model vs reality

Guimaraes goals
2
Model 1.75 · xG 1.49
Estrela goals
1
Model 0.90 · xG 0.91
Total goals
3
Model 2.65 · xG 2.40
Score 2–1
10%
Most likely 1–0 (12%)
Over 2.5
Yes
Model 49%
Both scored
Yes
Model 50%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchDiogo SousaGuimaraes · 1 goal
8.3
  • RefereeCarlos Macedo
  • Coaches— · Joao Nuno
  • VenueEstádio Dom Afonso Henriques
  • Table before kick-offGuimaraes 9th · Estrela 11th

Timeline

  1. Paulo Moreira 0–1Assist A. Marcus
    10’
  2. ⇄ M. NóbregaFor R. Abascal
    16’
  3. SamuYellow card
    24’
  4. OtávioYellow card
    34’
  5. Half time · 0–1
  6. ⇄ Nélson OliveiraFor Gustavo Silva
    46’
  7. ⇄ Telmo ArcanjoFor O. Camara
    46’
  8. Thiago Balieiro 1–1
    64’
  9. ⇄ M. ScholzeFor Otávio
    65’
  10. ⇄ Leandro AntonettiFor Rodrigo Pinho
    65’
  11. ⇄ RobinhoFor S. Leković
    65’
  12. Diogo Sousa 2–1Assist J. Teixeira Mendes
    68’
  13. R. AbascalYellow card · misses next match
    69’
  14. ⇄ Miguel MagaFor T. Strata
    74’
  15. ⇄ B. BrahimiFor G. Doue
    75’
  16. ⇄ I. StoicaFor Jovane Cabral
    83’
  17. CharlesYellow card
    89’
  18. Bernardo SchappoYellow card · misses next match
    90+1’
  19. ⇄ O. LebedenkoFor N. Saviolo
    90+3’
  20. Full time · 2–1

Team stats

Guimaraes20 shots · 10 in box, 10 outside
Estrela6 shots · 5 in box, 1 outside
GuimaraesEstrela
55% Possession 45%
1.49 Expected goals (xG) 0.91
1.78 Expected points (xPts) 0.95
20 Shots 6
6 Shots on target 4
6 Shots off target 2
8 Blocked shots 0
10 Shots inside the box 5
10 Shots outside the box 1
413 Passes 363
85% Pass accuracy 79%
9 Corners 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
13 Fouls 18
0 Offsides 2
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
7.02 Team rating 6.70

Line-ups

Guimaraes 4-2-3-1

276.7 Charles(G)
137.3 J. Teixeira Mendes A 266.3 R. Abascal ↓16’ 288.2 Thiago Balieiro 667.0 T. Strata ↓74’
238.3★ Diogo Sousa 167.3 Beni
486.9 N. Saviolo ↓90’ 206.2 Samu 116.3 Gustavo Silva ↓46’
196.3 O. Camara ↓46’
  • 27Charles (G)6.7
  • 13J. Teixeira MendesA7.3
  • 26R. Abascal↓16’6.3
  • 28Thiago Balieiro8.2
  • 66T. Strata↓74’7.0
  • 23Diogo Sousa ★8.3
  • 16Beni7.3
  • 48N. Saviolo↓90’6.9
  • 20Samu6.2
  • 11Gustavo Silva↓46’6.3
  • 19O. Camara↓46’6.3

Substitutes used

  • 3M. Nóbrega↑16’6.6
  • 18Telmo Arcanjo↑46’6.7
  • 7Nélson Oliveira↑46’6.2
  • 2Miguel Maga↑74’7.0
  • 17O. Lebedenko↑90’

Unused: Juan Castillo, Fabio Blanco, Matija Mitrović, A. Ndoye

Estrela 4-1-4-1

407.0 Renan Ribeiro(G)
836.9 Otávio ↓65’ 147.0 Bernardo Schappo 306.6 Luan Patrick 176.5 Jefferson Encada
46.5 S. Leković ↓65’
115.9 Jovane Cabral ↓83’ 197.6 Paulo Moreira 396.2 G. Doue ↓75’ 996.9 A. Marcus A
96.7 Rodrigo Pinho ↓65’
  • 40Renan Ribeiro (G)7.0
  • 83Otávio↓65’6.9
  • 14Bernardo Schappo7.0
  • 30Luan Patrick6.6
  • 17Jefferson Encada6.5
  • 4S. Leković↓65’6.5
  • 11Jovane Cabral↓83’5.9
  • 19Paulo Moreira7.6
  • 39G. Doue↓75’6.2
  • 99A. MarcusA6.9
  • 9Rodrigo Pinho↓65’6.7

Substitutes used

  • 21M. Scholze↑65’6.5
  • 8Robinho↑65’6.6
  • 7Leandro Antonetti↑65’6.5
  • 26B. Brahimi↑75’6.3
  • 10I. Stoica↑83’6.3

Unused: Dudu, A. Sola, T. Moustier, Jorge Meireles

Coach: Joao Nuno

Player stats

Top rated
Diogo SousaGuimaraes8.3
2nd
Thiago BalieiroGuimaraes8.2
3rd
Paulo MoreiraEstrela7.6

Guimaraes

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
Charles G 90 0 0 3 sv 0 78% 18 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.7
J. Teixeira Mendes D 90 0 1 1 (0) 2 75% 44 6 3 0/0 0/1 7.3
R. Abascal D 16 0 0 0 (0) 0 89% 9 1 2 0/0 1/0 6.3
Thiago Balieiro D 90 1 0 2 (2) 0 90% 50 4 1 0/0 0/0 8.2
T. Strata D 74 0 0 0 (0) 4 91% 33 3 1 0/0 3/5 7.0
Diogo Sousa M 90 1 0 1 (1) 0 83% 59 1 2 0/0 1/1 8.3
Beni M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 96% 48 2 0 1/1 1/2 7.3
N. Saviolo M 90 0 0 2 (2) 0 100% 15 0 0 1/4 0/3 6.9
Samu M 90 0 0 2 (1) 3 66% 32 1 1 0/0 2/2 6.2
Gustavo Silva F 46 0 0 2 (0) 0 79% 14 2 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
O. Camara F 46 0 0 1 (0) 2 75% 12 0 0 0/0 2/0 6.3
M. Nóbrega D 74 0 0 0 (0) 0 90% 39 1 0 0/0 1/0 6.6
Telmo Arcanjo M 44 0 0 1 (0) 1 83% 18 1 0 0/1 0/1 6.7
Nélson Oliveira F 44 0 0 0 (0) 1 77% 13 0 0 0/3 1/1 6.2
Miguel Maga D 16 0 0 0 (0) 1 100% 9 0 1 0/0 0/0 7.0
O. Lebedenko D 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 —

Estrela

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
Renan Ribeiro G 90 0 0 4 sv 0 60% 35 0 0 0/0 0/1 7.0
Otávio D 65 0 0 0 (0) 0 96% 24 2 1 1/3 0/3 6.9
Bernardo Schappo D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 91% 55 2 0 0/0 3/1 7.0
Luan Patrick D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 79% 48 2 2 2/2 0/0 6.6
Jefferson Encada M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 88% 25 1 4 1/1 2/2 6.5
S. Leković D 65 0 0 1 (0) 0 70% 27 1 3 0/0 1/0 6.5
Jovane Cabral F 83 0 0 1 (1) 1 79% 34 1 0 0/0 5/2 5.9
Paulo Moreira M 90 1 0 2 (1) 0 71% 28 5 0 1/3 2/2 7.6
G. Doue M 75 0 0 0 (0) 0 69% 26 0 0 1/2 2/1 6.2
A. Marcus F 90 0 1 1 (1) 2 81% 21 3 0 0/1 2/0 6.9
Rodrigo Pinho F 65 0 0 0 (0) 0 77% 13 1 1 0/1 0/1 6.7
M. Scholze F 25 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 7 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.5
Robinho M 25 0 0 0 (0) 0 82% 11 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.6
Leandro Antonetti F 25 0 0 1 (1) 0 50% 4 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.5
B. Brahimi F 15 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 5 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.3
I. Stoica F 7 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.