Guimaraes vs Estrela – 14 Feb 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 22 Sat, Feb 14 · 18:00 Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

Guimaraes 9th · 28 pts · 21 played WLLWL

2–1Full time

Estrela 11th · 23 pts · 21 played DLLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Guimaraes were slight favourites.

Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 19). Guimaraes had 6.9 days of rest, Estrela 7.1 and had to travel 310 km.

Away travel310 kmRest days6.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2

Guimaraes57%

Draw25%

Estrela19%

Expected goals 1.75 – 0.90

Guimaraes58%

Draw24%

Estrela19%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.96

Guimaraes57%

Draw25%

Estrela19%

Expected goals 1.75 – 0.90

Guimaraes49%

Draw27%

Estrela24%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.01

Guimaraes58%

Draw24%

Estrela19%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.97

Over 2.5 49% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Guimarães)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalCarlos Macedo

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 35

Team strength

Guimaraes

Estrela

38 L90 StrengthIn forecast 19

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

28 AttackIn forecast 24

39 DefenceIn forecast 27

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Guimaraes

Estrela

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.19

1.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.76

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

62% Scored inContext 57%

33% Clean sheetsContext 24%

12.81 ShotsContext 10.29

3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

28% On target shareContext 32%

7.14 Shots in the boxContext 5.24

57% Box shareContext 48%

9% ConversionContext 12%

2.11 OffsidesContext 1.94

11.81 Shots allowedContext 12.86

4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

3.11 BlocksContext 3.50

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.26

70% Save rateContext 66%

49% PossessionIn forecast 47%

361 PassesContext 338

294 Accurate passesContext 271

81% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.74

14.62 FoulsContext 14.19

15.05 Fouls sufferedContext 14.62

2.43 Yellow cardsContext 2.67

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 21 and 21 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 0.78

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.92

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.42

70% Scored inContext 60%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.30 ShotsContext 8.50

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

27% On target shareContext 35%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 4.30

62% Box shareContext 46%

10% ConversionContext 14%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.78

10.40 Shots allowedContext 14.30

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

2.56 BlocksContext 3.89

2.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

61% Save rateContext 59%

50% PossessionIn forecast 43%

363 PassesContext 331

295 Accurate passesContext 266

81% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.61

15.70 FoulsContext 15.10

15.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Guimaraes

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km115 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Estrela

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel310 km46 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Guimaraes	Estrela
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Feb	7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	310 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	115 km	46 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Guimaraes Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

27Charles(G)

13J. Teixeira Mendes 26R. Abascal 28Thiago Balieiro 66T. Strata

23Diogo Sousa 16Beni

48N. Saviolo 20Samu 11Gustavo Silva

19O. Camara

Estrela Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

40Renan Ribeiro(G)

83Otávio 14Bernardo Schappo 30Luan Patrick 17Jefferson Encada

4S. Leković

11Jovane Cabral 19Paulo Moreira 39G. Doue 99A. Marcus

9Rodrigo Pinho

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Guimaraes Absences are shown before kick-off

Estrela Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estrela+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Guimaraes · Home 1.64points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 5-3-3
Scored: 1.36
Conceded: 1.27

Estrela · Away 1.00points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 2-4-4
Scored: 1.10
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Guimaraes	Estrela
Arouca	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H	W 3–1 H
Moreirense	W 1–0 HL 0–2 A	D 0–0 H
Estoril	L 2–4 AW 3–2 H	L 0–5 HD 1–1 A
FC Porto	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A	L 1–3 A
Nacional	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 H
Casa Pia	D 0–0 A	W 5–3 A
Sporting CP	L 1–4 H	L 0–4 A
Rio Ave	W 1–0 A	L 1–2 H
GIL Vicente	D 0–0 H	L 0–2 A
AVS	W 4–0 H	W 3–0 H
Tondela	W 1–0 A	D 0–0 A
Benfica	L 0–3 H	L 0–4 AL 0–1 H
Famalicao	L 0–2 A	W 3–2 A
Santa Clara	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 HD 0–0 A
Alverca	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H
SC Braga	D 1–1 H	D 3–3 H
Points	25 of 60 · 1.25 per game	23 of 60 · 1.15 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

4 Guimaraes wins1 draws0 Estrela wins

Goals per game2.00 – 0.40 Over 2.540% Both scored20% Clean sheets80% · 0%

14 Sep 2025Estrela0–2Guimaraes
16 Mar 2025Guimaraes2–0Estrela
27 Oct 2024Estrela2–2Guimaraes
21 Jan 2024Guimaraes3–0Estrela
13 Aug 2023Estrela0–1Guimaraes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Guimaraes	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.19
Conceded per game	1.43	1.76
Match goals	2.52	2.95	2.65
Over 1.5	71%	76%
Over 2.5	43%	52%	49%
Over 3.5	24%	43%
Both teams scored	38%	48%	50%
Clean sheets	33%	24%
Failed to score	38%	43%
Games	21	21

	Guimaraes	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.20
Conceded per game	1.30	2.30
Match goals	2.60	3.50	2.65
Over 1.5	50%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	49%
Over 3.5	40%	70%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Guimaraes	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	4.29	3.61
Corners conceded	3.38	5.06
Match total	7.67	8.67	9.13
Over 8.5	43% 9/21	44% 8/18
Over 9.5	29% 6/21	33% 6/18
Over 10.5	14% 3/21	28% 5/18
Cards
Cards	2.57	2.81
Opponent cards	3.10	2.62
Match total	5.67	5.43	5.29
Over 3.5	76% 16/21	76% 16/21
Over 4.5	71% 15/21	71% 15/21

	Guimaraes	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	3.00
Corners conceded	3.40	6.25
Match total	8.00	9.25	9.13
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.80
Opponent cards	3.10	2.00
Match total	5.80	4.80	5.29
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Carlos Macedo Portugal · 35 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.14league 4.95

Red cards0.20league 0.29

Cards 5+43%league 60%

Fouls28.5league 26.9

Penalties0.31league 0.45

Home wins51%league 41%

Guimaraes1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

D28 Sep 24A · Casa Pia1–10

Estrela2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D31 Aug 25A · Santa Clara0–02
W29 Oct 23H · Famalicao1–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.