Hamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Hamburger SV
13th · 8 pts · 9 played
DWLLL
1–1Full time
Borussia Dortmund
3rd · 20 pts · 9 played
WDLWW
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were clear favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 32). Hamburger SV had 6 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 7.8 and had to travel 284 km.
Away travel284 kmRest days6 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Hamburger SV15%
Draw20%
Borussia Dortmund65%
Hamburger SV16%
Draw22%
Borussia Dortmund63%
Hamburger SV15%
Draw20%
Borussia Dortmund65%
Hamburger SV11%
Draw17%
Borussia Dortmund73%
Hamburger SV15%
Draw21%
Borussia Dortmund63%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Reichel
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 46
Team strength
Hamburger SVBorussia Dortmund
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
40
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
37
AttackIn forecast
69
43
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Hamburger SVBorussia Dortmund
0.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
44%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
13.78
ShotsContext
12.44
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
35%
On target shareContext
38%
9.13
Shots in the boxContext
8.56
60%
Box shareContext
70%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.86
14.78
Shots allowedContext
9.33
5.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.44
BlocksContext
2.63
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.57
65%
Save rateContext
78%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
408
PassesContext
533
340
Accurate passesContext
459
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.89
FoulsContext
11.78
13.11
Fouls sufferedContext
10.67
2.22
Yellow cardsContext
1.78
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
-0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.80
40%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.40
ShotsContext
11.90
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
34%
On target shareContext
35%
8.56
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
58%
Box shareContext
61%
6%
ConversionContext
17%
2.30
OffsidesContext
1.80
15.00
Shots allowedContext
10.90
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.40
BlocksContext
3.50
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
66%
Save rateContext
74%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
417
PassesContext
488
347
Accurate passesContext
412
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.91
12.50
FoulsContext
11.50
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Hamburger SV
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km714 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Dortmund
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel284 km854 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Hamburger SV |
Borussia Dortmund |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 31 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 284 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 714 km | 854 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
25J. Torunarigha
44L. Vušković
24N. Capaldo
28M. Muheim
6A. Sambi Lokonga
21N. Remberg
16G. Gocholeishvili
7Jean-Luc Dompe
15Y. Poulsen
14Rayan Philippe
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
23E. Can
3W. Anton
24D. Svensson
7J. Bellingham
13P. Groß
26J. Ryerson
17C. Chukwuemeka
14M. Beier
9S. Guirassy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Hamburger SV
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Hamburger SV-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Borussia Dortmund+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Hamburger SV · Home
1.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Borussia Dortmund · Away
2.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-1
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Hamburger SV | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln | L 1–4 A | W 1–0 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Union Berlin | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–5 A | L 1–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | L 0–2 H | D 3–3 A |
| Points | 7 of 24 · 0.88 per game | 17 of 24 · 2.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Hamburger SV | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.89 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 2.33 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 33% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 0% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Hamburger SV | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.89 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 2.33 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 33% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 0% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Hamburger SV | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 8.45 | 9.77 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 1.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.44 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.11 | 3.89 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 89% 8/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Hamburger SV | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 9.67 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.30 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Reichel Germany · 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.91league 4.15
Red cards0.11league 0.22
Cards 5+39%league 41%
Fouls25.3league 22.5
Penalties0.28league 0.35
Home wins41%league 43%
Hamburger SVNo previous matches with this referee.
Borussia Dortmund3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W27 Sep 25A · FSV Mainz 052–01
- L5 Oct 24A · Union Berlin1–24
- D1 Sep 23H · 1. FC Heidenheim2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Hamburger SV9 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
76-90
Borussia Dortmund9 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
7
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
