Bundesliga Gameweek 10 Sat, Nov 8 · 14:30 Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Hamburger SV 13th · 8 pts · 9 played
1–1Full time
Borussia Dortmund 3rd · 20 pts · 9 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Hamburger SV14.8%fair odds 6.78
Draw19.8%fair odds 5.05
Borussia Dortmund65.5%fair odds 1.53
Expected goals0.99 – 2.25total 3.24
Likeliest score0–210.0%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Hamburger SV

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Borussia Dortmund

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Hamburger SV ↓ · Borussia Dortmund →0123456+
04.48.410.07.54.21.91.0
13.49.29.87.44.11.91.0
21.94.34.83.62.00.90.5
30.61.41.61.20.70.30.2
40.20.30.40.30.20.10.0
50.00.10.10.10.00.00.0
6+0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Hamburger SV goals, columns Borussia Dortmund goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 0–210.0%10.04
  • 1–29.8%10.19
  • 1–19.2%10.89
  • 0–18.4%11.92
  • 0–37.5%13.39
  • 1–37.4%13.59
  • 2–24.8%20.68
  • 0–04.4%22.74
  • 2–14.3%23.27
  • 0–44.2%23.80

Winning margin

1.4% Hamburger SV by 3+ fair 74.02
3.8% Hamburger SV by 2 fair 26.48
9.6% Hamburger SV by 1 fair 10.39
19.8% Draw fair 5.05
22.6% Borussia Dortmund by 1 fair 4.43
19.7% Borussia Dortmund by 2 fair 5.08
23.2% Borussia Dortmund by 3+ fair 4.31

Goal distribution

Total goals

4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+

Hamburger SV goals

37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+

Borussia Dortmund goals

11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Hamburger SV win 14.8% 15.3% -0.5 pp
Draw 19.8% 21.4% -1.7 pp
Borussia Dortmund win 65.5% 63.3% +2.2 pp
Over 2.5 62.7% 56.7% +6.0 pp
Both teams score 56.5% 52.5% +4.0 pp
Expected goals Hamburger SV 0.99 0.91 +0.08
Expected goals Borussia Dortmund 2.25 2.05 +0.20

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Hamburger SV win14.8%6.78
  • Draw19.8%5.05
  • Borussia Dortmund win65.5%1.53
  • Double chance Hamburger SV or draw34.5%2.89
  • Double chance Hamburger SV or Borussia Dortmund80.2%1.25
  • Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw85.2%1.17
  • Draw no bet Hamburger SV18.4%5.44
  • Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund81.6%1.23

Goals

  • Over 0.595.6%1.05
  • Over 1.583.8%1.19
  • Over 2.562.7%1.59
  • Over 3.540.5%2.47
  • Over 4.522.6%4.43
  • Under 1.516.2%6.17
  • Under 2.537.3%2.68
  • Under 3.559.5%1.68

Both teams to score

  • Yes56.5%1.77
  • No43.5%2.30
  • Yes and over 2.547.3%2.11
  • Hamburger SV win and yes8.6%11.61
  • Draw and yes15.4%6.50
  • Borussia Dortmund win and yes32.5%3.08

Team goals

  • Hamburger SV over 0.562.7%1.60
  • Hamburger SV over 1.525.9%3.86
  • Hamburger SV over 2.57.8%12.88
  • Borussia Dortmund over 0.589.5%1.12
  • Borussia Dortmund over 1.565.7%1.52
  • Borussia Dortmund over 2.539.1%2.56
  • Hamburger SV clean sheet10.5%9.49
  • Borussia Dortmund clean sheet37.3%2.68
  • Hamburger SV win to nil6.1%16.28
  • Borussia Dortmund win to nil32.9%3.04

Handicap

  • Hamburger SV −1.55.1%19.50
  • Hamburger SV −2.51.4%74.02
  • Borussia Dortmund +1.594.9%1.05
  • Borussia Dortmund +2.598.6%1.01
  • Borussia Dortmund −1.542.9%2.33
  • Hamburger SV +1.557.1%1.75

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored82 Favourite won57.3% Avg chance given to result44.0% 1X2 Brier0.535 Over 2.5 called right62.2% BTTS called right54.9%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%1438.1%42.9%
40–50%2545.2%40.0%
50–60%1954.4%57.9%
60–70%1665.6%87.5%
70–80%773.5%71.4%
80%+187.0%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 64 of 82 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.50510.5168
Avg chance given to result45.4%44.4%
Favourite won60.9%62.5%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 64 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 82 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.