Bundesliga Gameweek 2 Sun, Sep 6 · 14:30 Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Hamburger SV 17th · 0 pts · 1 played
0–5Full time
FSV Mainz 05 12th · 1 pts · 1 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It was too close to call.

FSV Mainz 05 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 39). Hamburger SV had 7.9 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 8 and had to travel 414 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel414 kmRest days7.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Hamburger SV37%
Draw26%
FSV Mainz 0537%
Expected goals 1.37 – 1.36
Hamburger SV37%
Draw26%
FSV Mainz 0537%
Expected goals 1.33 – 1.35
Hamburger SV37%
Draw26%
FSV Mainz 0537%
Expected goals 1.35 – 1.34
Hamburger SV31%
Draw25%
FSV Mainz 0544%
Expected goals 1.23 – 1.52
Hamburger SV38%
Draw25%
FSV Mainz 0537%
Expected goals 1.42 – 1.41
Over 2.5 51% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
20°CPartly cloudy
  • Precipitation 0.0 mm
  • Wind 7 km/h
  • Humidity 55%
Referee · GermanyTobias Reichel
  • Cards per match 3.9
  • Penalties per match 0.29
  • Matches 58

Team strength

Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 05
39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52
40 Current StrengthIn forecast 55
37 AttackIn forecast 68
43 DefenceIn forecast 56
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Hamburger SV

Attack—
Defense risk—

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 05
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.64
2.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48
+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.34
80% Scored inContext 70%
0% Clean sheetsContext 30%
10.30 ShotsContext 14.10
3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.56
37% On target shareContext 36%
6.78 Shots in the boxContext 10.22
61% Box shareContext 69%
12% ConversionContext 9%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.00
16.10 Shots allowedContext 11.20
5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.78
3.89 BlocksContext 2.80
3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
67% Save rateContext 63%
42% PossessionIn forecast 45%
346 PassesContext 376
275 Accurate passesContext 302
79% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.80 Team ratingContext 6.89
11.60 FoulsContext 10.30
11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.10
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Hamburger SV
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km567 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 44 · 0 pts vs 0.6 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
  • L29 AugA · Borussia Dortmund0–20.5 xPts
FSV Mainz 05
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel414 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 43 · 1 pts vs 1.8 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
  • D29 AugH · SC Paderborn 070–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Hamburger SV FSV Mainz 05
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 29 Aug8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 29 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km414 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways567 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 10 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one76

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Hamburger SV Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
23J. Torunarigha 33S. Bornauw 24N. Capaldo
3D. Møller Wolfe 21N. Remberg 4B. Nadir 7Z. El Ouahdi
11A. Grønbæk 5M. Adeline
9T. Moffi
+3 more reported missing outside this XI
FSV Mainz 05 Confirmed XI
3-5-2
1A. Schwolow(G)
48K. Potulski 3F. Gruber 4S. Posch
2P. Mwene 7J. Lee 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 19A. Caci
9P. Tietz 23S. Becker
+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Hamburger SV Absences are shown before kick-off
FSV Mainz 05 Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Hamburger SV+0.3 pp
  • Draw-0.2 pp
  • FSV Mainz 05-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Hamburger SV · Home No home games yet this season.
FSV Mainz 05 · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Hamburger SV wins1 draws0 FSV Mainz 05 wins
Goals per game2.50 – 0.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%
  • 20 Feb 2026FSV Mainz 051–1Hamburger SV
  • 5 Oct 2025Hamburger SV4–0FSV Mainz 05

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 05Forecast
Scored per game 0.000.00
Conceded per game 2.000.00
Match goals 2.000.00 2.73
Over 1.5 100%0%
Over 2.5 0%0% 51%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 0%0% 56%
Clean sheets 0%100%
Failed to score 100%100%
Games11
Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 05Forecast
Scored per game 1.201.50
Conceded per game 2.001.20
Match goals 3.202.70 2.73
Over 1.5 100%80%
Over 2.5 60%50% 51%
Over 3.5 40%20%
Both teams scored 80%60% 56%
Clean sheets 0%30%
Failed to score 20%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 05League
Corners
Corners won1.0011.00
Corners conceded3.002.00
Match total4.0013.0011.47
Over 8.50% 0/1100% 1/1
Over 9.50% 0/1100% 1/1
Over 10.50% 0/1100% 1/1
Cards
Cards1.001.00
Opponent cards3.002.00
Match total4.003.003.60
Over 3.5100% 1/10% 0/1
Over 4.50% 0/10% 0/1
Hamburger SVFSV Mainz 05League
Corners
Corners won3.445.67
Corners conceded6.445.22
Match total9.8810.8911.47
Over 8.578% 7/989% 8/9
Over 9.567% 6/967% 6/9
Over 10.544% 4/944% 4/9
Cards
Cards2.101.40
Opponent cards3.102.80
Match total5.204.203.60
Over 3.580% 8/1050% 5/10
Over 4.560% 6/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tobias Reichel Germany · 58 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.78league 3.50
Red cards0.10league 0.13
Cards 5+38%league 25%
Fouls23.9league 22.8
Penalties0.29league 0.06
Home wins47%league 63%
Hamburger SV1 with this referee
Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • D8 Nov 25H · Borussia Dortmund1–11
FSV Mainz 055 with this referee
Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.2 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1
  • L27 Sep 25H · Borussia Dortmund0–23
  • D17 May 25H · Bayer Leverkusen2–22
  • W17 Feb 24H · FC Augsburg1–03
  • L9 Nov 22A · FC Schalke 040–11
  • W28 Aug 21H · SpVgg Greuther Fürth3–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Hamburger SV1 games · scored 0 · conceded 2
1 0-15
16-30
1 31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
FSV Mainz 051 games · scored 0 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
1 1 0-15
1 4 16-30
4 5 31-45
3 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
6 76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
5 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
3 2 31-45
1 2 46-60
3 61-75
2 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
VfB Stuttgart 1.FC Köln 41 Werder Bremen RB Leipzig 31 Borussia Mönchengladbach SV Elversberg 34 1899 Hoffenheim Borussia Dortmund 23 Bayer Leverkusen Union Berlin 40 SC Paderborn 07 SC Freiburg 01 FC Schalke 04 Bayern München 00 Hamburger SV FSV Mainz 05 05 Eintracht Frankfurt FC Augsburg 14