Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb – 16 Sep 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 16 · 20:00 Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium, Beer Sheva

Hapoel Beer Sheva

0–0Full time

Dinamo Zagreb

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Dinamo Zagreb were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Hapoel Beer Sheva had 22.1 days of rest, Dinamo Zagreb 21 and had to travel 2,284 km.

Away travel2,284 kmRest days22.1 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0

Hapoel Beer Sheva40%

Draw23%

Dinamo Zagreb37%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.58

Hapoel Beer Sheva36%

Draw26%

Dinamo Zagreb38%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.37

Hapoel Beer Sheva40%

Draw23%

Dinamo Zagreb36%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.54

Hapoel Beer Sheva32%

Draw23%

Dinamo Zagreb45%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.77

Hapoel Beer Sheva39%

Draw24%

Dinamo Zagreb37%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.48

Over 2.5 63% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Beer Sheva)

No weather data yet

RefereeJohn Brooks

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 107

Team strength

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Dinamo Zagreb

28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 43

26 AttackIn forecast 33

31 DefenceIn forecast 44

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Attack—

Defense risk—

Dinamo Zagreb

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Dinamo Zagreb

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

— xGVia Att/Def 1.56

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

— Goals minus xGContext +0.64

90% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

— ShotsContext 18.00

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.63

38% On target shareContext 26%

— Shots in the boxContext 10.50

— Box shareContext 59%

13% ConversionContext 10%

— OffsidesContext 2.00

— Shots allowedContext 11.63

— On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.88

— BlocksContext 4.50

— Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

65% Save rateContext 56%

70% PossessionIn forecast 54%

— PassesContext 516

— Accurate passesContext 428

— Pass accuracyContext 83%

— Team ratingContext 6.90

10.00 FoulsContext 11.78

12.67 Fouls sufferedContext 13.22

3.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Rest22.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Dinamo Zagreb

Rest21 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel2,284 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Hapoel Beer Sheva	Dinamo Zagreb
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	22.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 25 Aug	21UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 26 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,284 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	28.9	29

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Hapoel Beer Sheva Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1O. Marciano(G)

5Pedro Amador 3M. Baltaxa 4M. Vítor 2G. Mizrahi

9Z. Ahmed 28N. Yehoshua 17A. Forson

14Y. Malede 66I. Zlatanović 20J. East

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Dinamo Zagreb Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

24D. Kotarski(G)

3B. Goda 26S. McKenna 36Sergi Domínguez 15N. Galešić

27J. Mišić

99M. Oršić 80L. Kačavenda 10L. Stojković 21M. Lisica

11A. Hoxha

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Hapoel Beer Sheva Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Dinamo Zagreb Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Hapoel Beer Sheva-0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Dinamo Zagreb+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Hapoel Beer Sheva · Home No home games yet this season.

Dinamo Zagreb · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Hapoel Beer Sheva	Dinamo Zagreb	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.23
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	63%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	64%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Hapoel Beer Sheva	Dinamo Zagreb	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	2.20
Conceded per game	1.33	1.80
Match goals	3.00	4.00	3.23
Over 1.5	83%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	80%	63%
Over 3.5	17%	70%
Both teams scored	50%	80%	64%
Clean sheets	50%	10%
Failed to score	0%	10%
Games	6	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Hapoel Beer Sheva	Dinamo Zagreb	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	13.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Hapoel Beer Sheva	Dinamo Zagreb	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	6.00
Corners conceded	5.33	5.11
Match total	8.33	11.11	13.50
Over 8.5	33% 1/3	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	33% 1/3	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	33% 1/3	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	4.10	2.10
Opponent cards	2.10	1.90
Match total	6.20	4.00	2.00
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · John Brooks 107 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.41league 2.00

Red cards0.14league 0.00

Cards 5+50%league 0%

Fouls22.5league 25.0

Penalties0.25league 0.00

Home wins52%league 50%

Hapoel Beer Sheva

No previous matches with this referee.

Dinamo Zagreb

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.