Hapoel Beer Sheva
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Hapoel Beer Sheva39.4%fair odds 2.54
Draw24.4%fair odds 4.10
Dinamo Zagreb36.3%fair odds 2.76
Expected goals1.65 – 1.58total 3.23
Likeliest score1–110.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Dinamo Zagreb
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Hapoel Beer Sheva ↓ · Dinamo Zagreb → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Hapoel Beer Sheva goals, columns Dinamo Zagreb goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%9.20
- 2–18.5%11.74
- 1–28.1%12.29
- 2–26.7%14.89
- 1–06.0%16.68
- 0–15.7%17.53
- 2–05.4%18.52
- 0–24.9%20.28
- 3–14.7%21.34
- 0–04.5%22.17
Winning margin
8.3%
Hapoel Beer Sheva by 3+
fair 12.00
11.9%
Hapoel Beer Sheva by 2
fair 8.40
19.1%
Hapoel Beer Sheva by 1
fair 5.23
24.4%
Draw
fair 4.10
18.3%
Dinamo Zagreb by 1
fair 5.48
10.9%
Dinamo Zagreb by 2
fair 9.20
7.1%
Dinamo Zagreb by 3+
fair 14.04
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
Hapoel Beer Sheva goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
9%4+
Dinamo Zagreb goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Beer Sheva win | 39.4% | 37.9% | +1.4 pp |
| Draw | 24.4% | 25.5% | -1.2 pp |
| Dinamo Zagreb win | 36.3% | 36.5% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 62.6% | 57.4% | +5.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 64.7% | 60.7% | +3.9 pp |
| Expected goals Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1.65 | 1.51 | +0.14 |
| Expected goals Dinamo Zagreb | 1.58 | 1.48 | +0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Hapoel Beer Sheva win39.4%2.54
- Draw24.4%4.10
- Dinamo Zagreb win36.3%2.76
- Double chance Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw63.7%1.57
- Double chance Hapoel Beer Sheva or Dinamo Zagreb75.6%1.32
- Double chance Dinamo Zagreb or draw60.6%1.65
- Draw no bet Hapoel Beer Sheva52.1%1.92
- Draw no bet Dinamo Zagreb47.9%2.09
Goals
- Over 0.595.5%1.05
- Over 1.583.8%1.19
- Over 2.562.6%1.60
- Over 3.540.4%2.48
- Over 4.522.4%4.46
- Under 1.516.2%6.17
- Under 2.537.4%2.67
- Under 3.559.6%1.68
Both teams to score
- Yes64.7%1.55
- No35.3%2.83
- Yes and over 2.553.8%1.86
- Hapoel Beer Sheva win and yes23.2%4.31
- Draw and yes19.9%5.03
- Dinamo Zagreb win and yes21.6%4.64
Team goals
- Hapoel Beer Sheva over 0.580.8%1.24
- Hapoel Beer Sheva over 1.549.1%2.04
- Hapoel Beer Sheva over 2.523.0%4.35
- Dinamo Zagreb over 0.579.4%1.26
- Dinamo Zagreb over 1.546.8%2.14
- Dinamo Zagreb over 2.521.1%4.74
- Hapoel Beer Sheva clean sheet20.6%4.84
- Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet19.2%5.21
- Hapoel Beer Sheva win to nil16.1%6.20
- Dinamo Zagreb win to nil14.7%6.81
Handicap
- Hapoel Beer Sheva −1.520.2%4.94
- Hapoel Beer Sheva −2.58.3%12.00
- Dinamo Zagreb +1.579.8%1.25
- Dinamo Zagreb +2.591.7%1.09
- Dinamo Zagreb −1.518.0%5.56
- Hapoel Beer Sheva +1.582.0%1.22
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored2
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result45.6%
1X2 Brier0.465
Over 2.5 called right100.0%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 38.5% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 1 | 56.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 2 of 2 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4646 | 0.6092 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.6% | 39.6% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 2 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 2 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.