Heerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AZ Alkmaar. Heerenveen had 7 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 7.8 and had to travel 87 km.
Away travel87 kmRest days7 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Heerenveen21%
Draw21%
AZ Alkmaar58%
Heerenveen32%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar42%
Heerenveen21%
Draw21%
AZ Alkmaar58%
Heerenveen16%
Draw18%
AZ Alkmaar66%
Heerenveen21%
Draw21%
AZ Alkmaar58%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heerenveen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 57
Team strength
Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
31
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
36
AttackIn forecast
52
40
DefenceIn forecast
49
32
Form indexContext
84
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeerenveenAZ Alkmaar
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.25
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
3.04
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
75%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.00
ShotsContext
20.50
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.00
42%
On target shareContext
39%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
13.00
63%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.33
18.25
Shots allowedContext
8.00
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.25
5.50
BlocksContext
2.33
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
74%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
516
PassesContext
504
443
Accurate passesContext
430
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.93
Team ratingContext
7.12
7.00
FoulsContext
10.75
9.25
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.10
ShotsContext
17.50
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
36%
On target shareContext
37%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
69%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.75
18.20
Shots allowedContext
10.00
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
5.30
BlocksContext
3.13
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
73%
Save rateContext
72%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
478
PassesContext
478
401
Accurate passesContext
404
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.89
Team ratingContext
7.02
8.10
FoulsContext
10.70
8.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heerenveen
WDLD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km332 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 32 · 5 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
AZ Alkmaar
WWWW
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel87 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 84 · 12 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · +4.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heerenveen |
AZ Alkmaar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 7.8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 87 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 332 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
6D. Proper
36N. Courtens
7M. Rivera
10R. Meerveld
20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
28J. De Busser(G)
5Mateo Chávez
4L. Schouten
3W. Goes
22Elijah Dijkstra
6P. Koopmeiners
8J. Clasie
11Ro-Zangelo Daal
21D. Kwakman
7Weslley Patati
9M. Meerdink
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heerenveen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AZ Alkmaar
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heerenveen-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- AZ Alkmaar+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Heerenveen · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
AZ Alkmaar · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Heerenveen wins1 draws3 AZ Alkmaar wins
Goals per game1.50 – 3.17
Over 2.5100%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 12 Apr 2026AZ Alkmaar3–0Heerenveen
- 23 Nov 2025Heerenveen3–1AZ Alkmaar
- 2 Mar 2025Heerenveen3–1AZ Alkmaar
- 14 Sep 2024AZ Alkmaar9–1Heerenveen
- 28 Jan 2024Heerenveen2–2AZ Alkmaar
- 21 Oct 2023AZ Alkmaar3–0Heerenveen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heerenveen | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 3.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 4.00 | 3.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Heerenveen | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.30 | 3.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heerenveen | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 10.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.75 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 11.25 | 14.00 | 10.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 0.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 2.25 | 2.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Heerenveen | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 7.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 11.78 | 11.50 | 10.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 57 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.25league 2.45
Red cards0.14league 0.05
Cards 5+28%league 13%
Fouls19.6league 20.5
Penalties0.26league 0.18
Home wins44%league 26%
Heerenveen8 with this referee
Record2-1-5
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 1
- L7 Feb 26A · Twente0–53
- L8 Nov 25A · Fortuna Sittard0–21
- L16 Aug 25A · Groningen1–22
- W18 May 25H · Feyenoord2–00
- D9 Feb 25H · Twente3–31
AZ Alkmaar8 with this referee
Record3-2-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D23 Apr 26A · GO Ahead Eagles0–01
- L30 Nov 25A · Twente0–14
- W18 Oct 25A · Ajax2–02
- W31 Aug 25A · NAC Breda1–05
- L5 Apr 25H · Feyenoord0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heerenveen4 games · scored 5 · conceded 6
1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
AZ Alkmaar4 games · scored 13 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
1
4
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 24 · conceded 11
7
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
