Heerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Heerenveen were slight favourites.
Heerenveen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (21 vs 13). Heerenveen had ? days of rest, FC Volendam ? and had to travel 77 km.
Away travel77 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Heerenveen54%
Draw24%
FC Volendam22%
Heerenveen53%
Draw25%
FC Volendam22%
Heerenveen54%
Draw24%
FC Volendam22%
Heerenveen46%
Draw26%
FC Volendam28%
Heerenveen53%
Draw25%
FC Volendam22%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heerenveen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal
- Cards per match 2.4
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 31
Team strength
Heerenveen
FC Volendam
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
31
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
36
AttackIn forecast
14
40
DefenceIn forecast
19
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Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeerenveenFC Volendam
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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—
Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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—
FoulsContext
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—
Fouls sufferedContext
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—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
—
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.90
ShotsContext
6.50
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.30
32%
On target shareContext
35%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
64%
Box shareContext
69%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.40
Shots allowedContext
21.40
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.70
2.89
BlocksContext
5.80
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.78
71%
Save rateContext
68%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
36%
419
PassesContext
318
345
Accurate passesContext
233
82%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.70
FoulsContext
8.00
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
7.30
0.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heerenveen
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Volendam
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel77 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heerenveen |
FC Volendam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 77 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
44A. Noppert(G)
28H. Petrov
17N. Hopland
4S. Kersten
19V. Zagaritis
8L. Brouwers
6J. van Overeem
7M. Rivera
14L. Smans
20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
32Y. Leliendal
3M. Amevor
4X. Mbuyamba
2D. Payne
8G. Yah
6A. Plat
7O. Kökçü
21R. Mühren
11A. Oehlers
9H. Veerman
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heerenveen
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Volendam
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heerenveen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Volendam+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Heerenveen · Home
No home games yet this season.
FC Volendam · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Heerenveen wins0 draws1 FC Volendam wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 16 Dec 2023Heerenveen1–2FC Volendam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heerenveen | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 56% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Heerenveen | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 56% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heerenveen | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 3.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Heerenveen | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 8.40 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 12.30 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 0.90 | |
| Match total | 2.30 | 2.30 | 3.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.32league 2.67
Red cards0.10league 0.33
Cards 5+19%league 33%
Fouls18.5league 23.3
Penalties0.16league 0.33
Home wins58%league 67%
Heerenveen3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 0.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L19 Oct 24A · NEC Nijmegen0–33
- D7 Oct 23H · NEC Nijmegen1–11
- W12 Aug 23H · Waalwijk3–10
FC VolendamNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
HeerenveenFC VolendamHeerenveen10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 8 · conceded 25
4
5
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
6
46-60
5
61-75
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
