Heerenveen vs Feyenoord – 11 Jan 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Jan 11 · 11:15 Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen

Heerenveen 9th · 23 pts · 17 played WLLWW

First leg0–1 2–2Full time

Feyenoord 2nd · 35 pts · 17 played LWWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Feyenoord were slight favourites.

Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 27). Heerenveen had 21.8 days of rest, Feyenoord 20.9 and had to travel 151 km.

Away travel151 kmRest days21.8 · 20.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

Heerenveen30%

Draw26%

Feyenoord44%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.58

Heerenveen30%

Draw27%

Feyenoord44%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.50

Heerenveen30%

Draw26%

Feyenoord44%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.58

Heerenveen23%

Draw25%

Feyenoord52%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.77

Heerenveen30%

Draw27%

Feyenoord44%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.50

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Heerenveen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 49

Team strength

Heerenveen

Feyenoord

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 50

31 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

36 AttackIn forecast 76

40 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heerenveen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Feyenoord

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Heerenveen

Feyenoord

1.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.47

1.53 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.24

1.79 xGVia Att/Def 2.08

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.02

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.39

82% Scored inContext 94%

12% Clean sheetsContext 35%

15.47 ShotsContext 17.94

5.47 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.59

35% On target shareContext 37%

10.06 Shots in the boxContext 12.65

64% Box shareContext 73%

11% ConversionContext 14%

2.18 OffsidesContext 2.10

10.06 Shots allowedContext 10.76

4.24 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.57

2.67 BlocksContext 3.00

2.65 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.46

63% Save rateContext 71%

52% PossessionIn forecast 54%

426 PassesContext 442

339 Accurate passesContext 371

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.83 Team ratingContext 7.05

11.47 FoulsContext 9.88

11.06 Fouls sufferedContext 10.18

1.53 Yellow cardsContext 1.41

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.67 xGVia Att/Def 1.99

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

80% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

15.70 ShotsContext 17.40

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

38% On target shareContext 31%

9.89 Shots in the boxContext 11.90

60% Box shareContext 71%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.43

10.40 Shots allowedContext 12.50

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

2.78 BlocksContext 3.13

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.38

64% Save rateContext 71%

53% PossessionIn forecast 53%

435 PassesContext 443

351 Accurate passesContext 376

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.90

12.10 FoulsContext 11.00

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heerenveen

Rest21.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Feyenoord

Rest20.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel151 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Heerenveen	Feyenoord
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	21.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 20 Dec	20.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	151 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Heerenveen Confirmed XI

4-3-3

31N. Bakker(G)

19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude

6J. van Overeem 16M. Linday 8L. Brouwers

10R. Meerveld 9D. Vente 20J. Trenskow

Feyenoord Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22T. Wellenreuther(G)

15J. Bos 4T. Watanabe 21A. Ahmedhodžić 26G. Read

8Q. Timber 6I. Hwang

16L. Sauer 14S. Steijn 11Gonçalo Borges

9A. Ueda

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Heerenveen Absences are shown before kick-off

Feyenoord Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Heerenveen+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Feyenoord+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Heerenveen · Home 1.50points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 3-3-2
Scored: 1.88
Conceded: 1.75

Feyenoord · Away 2.00points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 5-1-2
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 1.13

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Heerenveen	Feyenoord
Heracles	W 3–0 A	W 7–0 A
Sparta Rotterdam	W 3–0 A	W 4–0 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 0–2 H	L 2–3 H
PEC Zwolle	L 1–2 A	W 6–1 H
AZ Alkmaar	W 3–1 H	D 3–3 A
Fortuna Sittard	L 0–2 A	W 2–0 H
Ajax	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 A
NAC Breda	D 3–3 H	W 2–0 H
Telstar	W 3–2 A	W 2–1 A
Excelsior	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 A
Utrecht	D 2–2 A	W 3–2 H
NEC Nijmegen	W 3–2 H	L 2–4 H
GO Ahead Eagles	D 2–2 H	L 1–2 A
Twente	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 H
Groningen	L 1–2 A	W 1–0 A
FC Volendam	D 1–1 H	W 3–1 H
Points	23 of 48 · 1.44 per game	32 of 48 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Heerenveen wins0 draws3 Feyenoord wins

Goals per game0.75 – 2.50 Over 2.550% Both scored25% Clean sheets25% · 50%

13 Sep 2025Feyenoord1–0Heerenveen
18 May 2025Heerenveen2–0Feyenoord
23 Nov 2024Feyenoord3–0Heerenveen
16 Sep 2023Feyenoord6–1Heerenveen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Heerenveen	Feyenoord	Forecast
Scored per game	1.71	2.47
Conceded per game	1.53	1.24
Match goals	3.24	3.71	2.84
Over 1.5	94%	88%
Over 2.5	71%	65%	54%
Over 3.5	35%	47%
Both teams scored	71%	59%	57%
Clean sheets	12%	35%
Failed to score	18%	6%
Games	17	17

	Heerenveen	Feyenoord	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.90
Conceded per game	1.40	2.10
Match goals	3.30	4.00	2.84
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	70%	70%	54%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	80%	57%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Heerenveen	Feyenoord	League
Corners
Corners won	6.24	7.31
Corners conceded	4.47	3.94
Match total	10.71	11.25	10.22
Over 8.5	82% 14/17	75% 12/16
Over 9.5	59% 10/17	69% 11/16
Over 10.5	47% 8/17	56% 9/16
Cards
Cards	1.65	1.53
Opponent cards	1.65	1.12
Match total	3.30	2.65	3.59
Over 3.5	41% 7/17	24% 4/17
Over 4.5	24% 4/17	12% 2/17

	Heerenveen	Feyenoord	League
Corners
Corners won	6.70	7.10
Corners conceded	4.30	4.00
Match total	11.00	11.10	10.22
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.50
Opponent cards	1.10	1.30
Match total	2.50	2.80	3.59
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 49 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.43league 3.36

Red cards0.33league 0.22

Cards 5+33%league 32%

Fouls22.5league 21.7

Penalties0.18league 0.30

Home wins47%league 47%

Heerenveen5 with this referee

Record1-1-3 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

L12 Apr 25A · Sparta Rotterdam1–32
W12 Jan 25A · NAC Breda4–23
L14 Sep 24A · AZ Alkmaar1–91
D28 Jan 24H · AZ Alkmaar2–22
L5 Nov 23A · Ajax1–42

Feyenoord4 with this referee

Record3-1-0 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.3 Pens for · against1 · 0

W30 Nov 25A · Telstar2–13
W22 Sep 24H · NAC Breda2–02
D14 Jan 24H · NEC Nijmegen2–22
W8 Oct 23A · PEC Zwolle2–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.