Heerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Heerenveen
9th · 41 pts · 28 played
LWWWD
First leg3–0
4–1Full time
Heracles
18th · 19 pts · 28 played
LLDLD
Our take
Heerenveen were clear favourites.
Heerenveen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 12). Absences weigh more on Heracles. Heerenveen had 14.1 days of rest, Heracles 15.7 and had to travel 84 km.
Away travel84 kmRest days14.1 · 15.7Matches / 14d0 · 0
Heerenveen67%
Draw19%
Heracles14%
Heerenveen62%
Draw22%
Heracles16%
Heerenveen66%
Draw19%
Heracles15%
Heerenveen60%
Draw22%
Heracles19%
Heerenveen67%
Draw19%
Heracles14%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heerenveen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsIngmar Oostrom
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 28
Team strength
HeerenveenHeracles
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
31
Current StrengthIn forecast
9
36
AttackIn forecast
7
40
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeerenveenHeracles
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.18
1.64
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.92
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
82%
Scored inContext
57%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
7%
14.43
ShotsContext
10.46
5.41
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.12
36%
On target shareContext
35%
9.52
Shots in the boxContext
6.96
66%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.94
12.46
Shots allowedContext
16.43
4.93
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
3.26
BlocksContext
4.89
3.32
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.93
67%
Save rateContext
60%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
426
PassesContext
339
341
Accurate passesContext
260
80%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.72
10.82
FoulsContext
12.93
9.71
Fouls sufferedContext
11.36
1.46
Yellow cardsContext
1.96
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.03
+0.54
Goals minus xGContext
-0.38
80%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.70
ShotsContext
10.00
5.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
37%
On target shareContext
30%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
70%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
1.29
OffsidesContext
2.67
17.10
Shots allowedContext
14.80
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.20
4.20
BlocksContext
3.60
4.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
75%
Save rateContext
61%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
416
PassesContext
342
333
Accurate passesContext
260
80%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.67
9.70
FoulsContext
14.10
7.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heerenveen
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Heracles
Rest15.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel84 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heerenveen |
Heracles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 15.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 20 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 84 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
16M. Linday
6J. van Overeem
7M. Rivera
10R. Meerveld
20J. Trenskow
18L. Nordås
Heracles
Confirmed XI
22R. Pasveer(G)
24I. Mesík
18A. Van Hoorenbeeck
4D. Mirani
2M. Benita
32S. Scheperman
73W. Ould-Chikh
8M. Engels
10T. Bruns
14E. Ahlstrand
25L. Zeefuik
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heerenveen
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Heracles
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.11 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heerenveen+1.8 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Heracles-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Heerenveen · Home
1.64points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-3
- Scored
- 1.93
- Conceded
- 1.57
Heracles · Away
0.29points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-12
- Scored
- 0.79
- Conceded
- 2.93
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Heerenveen | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | D 2–2 AW 3–2 H | L 1–4 AL 1–4 H |
| Telstar | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 2–1 HW 3–0 A | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–3 AL 0–2 H | L 1–3 HL 3–4 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 4–2 HL 1–2 A | W 8–2 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H | L 0–4 AW 4–2 H |
| Twente | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Utrecht | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | D 0–0 HL 0–4 A |
| Groningen | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| Feyenoord | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | L 2–4 AL 0–7 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 3–1 H | L 0–4 AL 1–2 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Ajax | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| NAC Breda | D 3–3 H | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A |
| FC Volendam | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 38 of 81 · 1.41 per game | 19 of 81 · 0.70 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Heerenveen wins1 draws1 Heracles wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.75
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 20 Dec 2025Heracles0–3Heerenveen
- 15 Mar 2025Heerenveen1–1Heracles
- 27 Sep 2024Heracles2–1Heerenveen
- 28 Oct 2023Heerenveen3–0Heracles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heerenveen | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.18 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.64 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.39 | 3.68 | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 96% | 93% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 71% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 54% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 7% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 43% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Heerenveen | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.10 | 3.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heerenveen | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 4.21 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.93 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.37 | 10.21 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 21/27 | 68% 19/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 15/27 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 13/27 | 32% 9/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.54 | 2.04 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 2.97 | 3.79 | 3.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 36% 10/28 | 46% 13/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 18% 5/28 | 29% 8/28 | |
| Heerenveen | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 8.70 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 3.40 | 3.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ingmar Oostrom Netherlands · 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.29league 3.19
Red cards0.21league 0.17
Cards 5+36%league 27%
Fouls21.6league 21.4
Penalties0.25league 0.23
Home wins46%league 45%
Heerenveen3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W15 Feb 26H · PEC Zwolle4–21
- D16 Feb 25A · PEC Zwolle1–11
- W20 Aug 23A · Utrecht2–01
Heracles5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- W2 Nov 25H · PEC Zwolle8–20
- L23 Apr 25A · Groningen1–45
- W19 Jan 25A · Almere City FC2–01
- L16 Feb 24A · PSV Eindhoven0–24
- D23 Sep 23A · FC Volendam2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heerenveen28 games · scored 49 · conceded 46
2
4
0-15
7
10
16-30
12
6
31-45
8
9
46-60
9
6
61-75
11
11
76-90
Heracles28 games · scored 33 · conceded 70
3
9
0-15
7
8
16-30
6
15
31-45
7
10
46-60
4
9
61-75
6
19
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 18 · conceded 18
1
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
6
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 7 · conceded 24
3
0-15
4
4
16-30
1
5
31-45
4
46-60
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
