Heerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 19). Absences weigh more on Heerenveen. Heerenveen had 7.7 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 7.8 and had to travel 124 km.
Away travel124 kmRest days7.7 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Heerenveen33%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen41%
Heerenveen34%
Draw27%
NEC Nijmegen39%
Heerenveen34%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen40%
Heerenveen27%
Draw25%
NEC Nijmegen48%
Heerenveen33%
Draw27%
NEC Nijmegen40%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heerenveen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 22
Team strength
Heerenveen
NEC Nijmegen
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
31
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
36
AttackIn forecast
37
40
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeerenveenNEC Nijmegen
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
2.65
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
-0.79
Goals minus xGContext
+0.75
80%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
16.40
ShotsContext
18.40
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.60
24%
On target shareContext
47%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
12.40
65%
Box shareContext
68%
6%
ConversionContext
19%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.75
8.40
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
2.50
BlocksContext
2.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
65%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
435
PassesContext
478
345
Accurate passesContext
388
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.14
10.60
FoulsContext
11.40
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
2.07
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.53
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.10
ShotsContext
15.00
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.60
27%
On target shareContext
44%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
66%
Box shareContext
68%
8%
ConversionContext
17%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.88
9.50
Shots allowedContext
13.30
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
2.83
BlocksContext
3.40
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
68%
Save rateContext
76%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
415
PassesContext
437
331
Accurate passesContext
347
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.90
Team ratingContext
7.09
11.60
FoulsContext
10.90
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heerenveen
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km302 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NEC Nijmegen
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel124 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heerenveen |
NEC Nijmegen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Sep | 7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 124 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 302 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
6J. van Overeem
45O. Braude
8L. Brouwers
16M. Linday
7M. Rivera
10R. Meerveld
20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
5T. Ouwejan
4A. Kaplan
2B. Pereira
23K. Sano
7V. Misidjan
32Vito van Crooij
71D. Proper
25S. Ouaissa
9K. Shiogai
10T. Chery
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heerenveen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
NEC Nijmegen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heerenveen-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- NEC Nijmegen+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Heerenveen · Home
0.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
NEC Nijmegen · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Heerenveen wins1 draws1 NEC Nijmegen wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 27 Apr 2025Heerenveen1–0NEC Nijmegen
- 19 Oct 2024NEC Nijmegen3–0Heerenveen
- 7 Oct 2023Heerenveen1–1NEC Nijmegen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heerenveen | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 5.20 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 100% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Heerenveen | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 5.20 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 100% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heerenveen | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 8.40 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 5/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 5.00 | 3.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Heerenveen | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 9.00 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.20 | 3.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.73league 3.42
Red cards0.05league 0.20
Cards 5+36%league 36%
Fouls23.3league 22.4
Penalties0.23league 0.14
Home wins50%league 48%
Heerenveen5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- W27 Apr 25H · NEC Nijmegen1–01
- L30 Mar 25A · Utrecht0–21
- W26 Oct 24H · Sparta Rotterdam2–04
- D3 Feb 24A · Fortuna Sittard3–32
- L2 Sep 23A · GO Ahead Eagles2–31
NEC Nijmegen1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L27 Apr 25A · Heerenveen0–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heerenveen5 games · scored 5 · conceded 8
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
NEC Nijmegen5 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
4
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 26 · conceded 12
2
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
6
3
46-60
8
1
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
