Heerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Heerenveen
10th · 28 pts · 22 played
DLDLW
First leg1–2
4–2Full time
PEC Zwolle
12th · 26 pts · 22 played
DWLWL
Our take
Heerenveen were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Heerenveen. Heerenveen had 3.8 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 7.8 and had to travel 51 km.
Away travel51 kmRest days3.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d3 · 1
Heerenveen48%
Draw24%
PEC Zwolle27%
Heerenveen47%
Draw26%
PEC Zwolle27%
Heerenveen49%
Draw24%
PEC Zwolle26%
Heerenveen40%
Draw25%
PEC Zwolle34%
Heerenveen47%
Draw25%
PEC Zwolle28%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heerenveen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsIngmar Oostrom
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 26
Team strength
HeerenveenPEC Zwolle
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
31
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
36
AttackIn forecast
17
40
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeerenveenPEC Zwolle
1.59
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.41
1.68
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.05
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
77%
Scored inContext
86%
9%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
15.14
ShotsContext
9.00
5.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.52
35%
On target shareContext
37%
9.81
Shots in the boxContext
5.52
64%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
2.07
OffsidesContext
2.05
10.77
Shots allowedContext
16.82
4.59
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.23
2.65
BlocksContext
4.00
2.91
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.48
63%
Save rateContext
70%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
439
PassesContext
364
354
Accurate passesContext
285
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.36
FoulsContext
10.91
10.45
Fouls sufferedContext
12.32
1.45
Yellow cardsContext
1.91
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
70%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.20
ShotsContext
9.40
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
36%
On target shareContext
44%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
65%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
18%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.40
Shots allowedContext
17.10
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.40
2.40
BlocksContext
4.40
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.33
69%
Save rateContext
77%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
456
PassesContext
374
371
Accurate passesContext
291
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.70
FoulsContext
11.70
8.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heerenveen
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km371 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
PEC Zwolle
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel51 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heerenveen |
PEC Zwolle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 Feb | 7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 51 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 371 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
6J. van Overeem
16M. Linday
7M. Rivera
10R. Meerveld
11L. Oyen
18L. Nordås
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
28S. Graves
6T. Gooijer
7S. Shoretire
30R. Thomas
22K. de Rooij
25T. Oosting
9Y. Namli
10Koen Kostons
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heerenveen
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PEC Zwolle
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heerenveen-1.2 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- PEC Zwolle+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Heerenveen · Home
1.27points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-3
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 1.73
PEC Zwolle · Away
0.64points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-6
- Scored
- 1.45
- Conceded
- 2.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Heerenveen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Twente | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Utrecht | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Groningen | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Feyenoord | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | L 1–6 A |
| Heracles | W 3–0 A | L 2–8 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–2 H | L 0–4 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 3–1 H | W 3–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Ajax | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| NAC Breda | D 3–3 H | D 2–2 A |
| Telstar | W 3–2 A | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 3–2 H | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H |
| FC Volendam | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 28 of 63 · 1.33 per game | 23 of 63 · 1.10 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Heerenveen wins3 draws1 PEC Zwolle wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 28 Nov 2025PEC Zwolle2–1Heerenveen
- 16 Feb 2025PEC Zwolle1–1Heerenveen
- 6 Oct 2024Heerenveen1–1PEC Zwolle
- 13 Jan 2024PEC Zwolle2–2Heerenveen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heerenveen | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.59 | 1.41 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.68 | 2.05 | |
| Match goals | 3.27 | 3.45 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 95% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 68% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 68% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 14% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Heerenveen | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.50 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heerenveen | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.81 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 6.15 | |
| Match total | 10.48 | 9.25 | 10.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 81% 17/21 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 12/21 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 10/21 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.55 | 2.09 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.55 | 1.45 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.54 | 3.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 36% 8/22 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 18% 4/22 | 27% 6/22 | |
| Heerenveen | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 7.44 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 11.11 | 10.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 3.20 | 3.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ingmar Oostrom Netherlands · 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.42league 3.31
Red cards0.23league 0.20
Cards 5+38%league 31%
Fouls22.2league 21.6
Penalties0.27league 0.25
Home wins46%league 43%
Heerenveen2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D16 Feb 25A · PEC Zwolle1–11
- W20 Aug 23A · Utrecht2–01
PEC Zwolle5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L2 Nov 25A · Heracles2–83
- D16 Feb 25H · Heerenveen1–10
- W30 Nov 24H · Sparta Rotterdam1–03
- L20 Sep 24H · AZ Alkmaar1–22
- L12 Nov 23A · PSV Eindhoven0–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heerenveen22 games · scored 35 · conceded 37
2
3
0-15
4
8
16-30
8
5
31-45
6
7
46-60
6
5
61-75
9
9
76-90
PEC Zwolle21 games · scored 31 · conceded 43
8
2
0-15
2
7
16-30
7
16
31-45
5
6
46-60
6
3
61-75
3
9
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
0-15
2
6
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 17 · conceded 18
5
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
