Heerenveen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Heerenveen
10th · 28 pts · 22 played
DLDLW
First leg1–2
4–2Full time
PEC Zwolle
12th · 26 pts · 22 played
DWLWL
Heerenveen48.3%fair odds 2.07
Draw24.4%fair odds 4.11
PEC Zwolle27.3%fair odds 3.66
Expected goals1.78 – 1.29total 3.07
Likeliest score1–111.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
PEC Zwolle
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Heerenveen ↓ · PEC Zwolle → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Heerenveen goals, columns PEC Zwolle goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.2%8.92
- 2–19.5%10.55
- 1–07.7%13.04
- 2–07.3%13.65
- 1–26.9%14.51
- 2–26.1%16.31
- 3–15.6%17.79
- 0–15.4%18.45
- 0–05.2%19.26
- 3–04.3%23.01
Winning margin
11.9%
Heerenveen by 3+
fair 8.41
14.8%
Heerenveen by 2
fair 6.74
21.6%
Heerenveen by 1
fair 4.64
24.4%
Draw
fair 4.11
15.5%
PEC Zwolle by 1
fair 6.44
7.8%
PEC Zwolle by 2
fair 12.75
4.0%
PEC Zwolle by 3+
fair 25.13
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Heerenveen goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
PEC Zwolle goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen win | 48.3% | 47.4% | +0.9 pp |
| Draw | 24.4% | 25.0% | -0.6 pp |
| PEC Zwolle win | 27.3% | 27.6% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.3% | 56.8% | +2.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.9% | 59.1% | +1.8 pp |
| Expected goals Heerenveen | 1.78 | 1.71 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals PEC Zwolle | 1.29 | 1.26 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Heerenveen win48.3%2.07
- Draw24.4%4.11
- PEC Zwolle win27.3%3.66
- Double chance Heerenveen or draw72.7%1.38
- Double chance Heerenveen or PEC Zwolle75.6%1.32
- Double chance PEC Zwolle or draw51.7%1.93
- Draw no bet Heerenveen63.8%1.57
- Draw no bet PEC Zwolle36.2%2.77
Goals
- Over 0.594.8%1.05
- Over 1.581.7%1.22
- Over 2.559.3%1.69
- Over 3.536.9%2.71
- Over 4.519.7%5.07
- Under 1.518.3%5.47
- Under 2.540.7%2.46
- Under 3.563.1%1.59
Both teams to score
- Yes60.9%1.64
- No39.1%2.56
- Yes and over 2.549.7%2.01
- Heerenveen win and yes26.1%3.84
- Draw and yes19.2%5.22
- PEC Zwolle win and yes15.7%6.38
Team goals
- Heerenveen over 0.583.1%1.20
- Heerenveen over 1.553.1%1.88
- Heerenveen over 2.526.4%3.79
- PEC Zwolle over 0.572.6%1.38
- PEC Zwolle over 1.537.1%2.70
- PEC Zwolle over 2.514.1%7.07
- Heerenveen clean sheet27.4%3.65
- PEC Zwolle clean sheet16.9%5.93
- Heerenveen win to nil22.2%4.50
- PEC Zwolle win to nil11.7%8.56
Handicap
- Heerenveen −1.526.7%3.74
- Heerenveen −2.511.9%8.41
- PEC Zwolle +1.573.3%1.36
- PEC Zwolle +2.588.1%1.13
- PEC Zwolle −1.511.8%8.46
- Heerenveen +1.588.2%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored204
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result40.8%
1X2 Brier0.594
Over 2.5 called right62.7%
BTTS called right62.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 36 | 38.1% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 73 | 44.9% | 43.8% |
| 50–60% | 46 | 55.1% | 47.8% |
| 60–70% | 27 | 64.1% | 63.0% |
| 70–80% | 15 | 74.2% | 86.7% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 84.7% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 181 of 204 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5982 | 0.5935 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.5% | 41.8% |
| Favourite won | 49.2% | 51.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 181 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 204 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.