Heerenveen vs Telstar – 14 Mar 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Mar 14 · 19:00 Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen

Heerenveen 8th · 37 pts · 26 played WWLWW

First leg3–2 3–0Full time

Telstar 16th · 24 pts · 26 played DDLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Heerenveen were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Telstar. Heerenveen had 7 days of rest, Telstar 6.2 and had to travel 102 km.

Away travel102 kmRest days7 · 6.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Heerenveen46%

Draw24%

Telstar31%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.47

Heerenveen47%

Draw26%

Telstar27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.13

Heerenveen45%

Draw24%

Telstar31%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.48

Heerenveen38%

Draw24%

Telstar38%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.65

Heerenveen45%

Draw24%

Telstar31%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.45

Over 2.5 64% Both score 65% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Heerenveen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 58

Team strength

Heerenveen

Telstar

29 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24

31 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

36 AttackIn forecast 24

40 DefenceIn forecast 13

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heerenveen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Heerenveen

Telstar

1.69 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.35

1.69 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.62

1.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.80

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

81% Scored inContext 77%

8% Clean sheetsContext 15%

14.69 ShotsContext 12.50

5.32 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.76

35% On target shareContext 37%

9.56 Shots in the boxContext 7.96

65% Box shareContext 61%

12% ConversionContext 11%

1.88 OffsidesContext 2.27

11.92 Shots allowedContext 15.69

4.69 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.16

3.14 BlocksContext 4.68

3.08 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.44

66% Save rateContext 72%

51% PossessionIn forecast 44%

430 PassesContext 354

345 Accurate passesContext 273

80% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.89

10.81 FoulsContext 11.50

9.88 Fouls sufferedContext 10.38

1.46 Yellow cardsContext 1.23

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 26 and 26 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.42

1.54 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67

+0.67 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

80% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.40 ShotsContext 11.60

5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

36% On target shareContext 41%

8.90 Shots in the boxContext 7.25

67% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 14%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.11

14.70 Shots allowedContext 15.50

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.44

3.70 BlocksContext 4.44

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.67

71% Save rateContext 72%

50% PossessionIn forecast 45%

445 PassesContext 352

362 Accurate passesContext 265

81% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.89

9.50 FoulsContext 12.60

8.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 0.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heerenveen

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km302 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Telstar

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel102 km366 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Heerenveen	Telstar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Mar	6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	102 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	302 km	366 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.7	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Heerenveen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22B. Klaverboer(G)

19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude

6J. van Overeem 16M. Linday

7M. Rivera 10R. Meerveld 20J. Trenskow

18L. Nordås

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Telstar Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1R. Koeman(G)

6D. Bakker 4G. Offerhaus 14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo

2J. Hardeveld 23C. Hatenboer 8T. Owusu 3G. Alders

27P. Brouwer 19N. Þórisson 37Sem van Duijn

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Heerenveen Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Telstar Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Heerenveen+0.3 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Telstar-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Heerenveen · Home 1.54points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 5-5-3
Scored: 1.85
Conceded: 1.69

Telstar · Away 1.00points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 3-4-6
Scored: 1.08
Conceded: 1.38

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Heerenveen	Telstar
Excelsior	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H
Sparta Rotterdam	W 2–1 HW 3–0 A	L 0–1 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–3 AL 0–2 H	W 2–0 A
PEC Zwolle	W 4–2 HL 1–2 A	L 1–4 AL 0–2 H
GO Ahead Eagles	W 3–1 AD 2–2 H	D 1–1 AW 4–2 H
Twente	L 0–5 AL 1–2 H	D 1–1 HD 0–0 A
Utrecht	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A	D 1–1 H
Groningen	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A	L 0–2 A
Feyenoord	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Heracles	W 3–0 A	D 1–1 A
AZ Alkmaar	W 3–1 H	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A
Fortuna Sittard	L 0–2 A	W 4–1 AL 1–3 H
Ajax	D 1–1 A	L 2–3 HL 0–2 A
NAC Breda	D 3–3 H	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A
NEC Nijmegen	W 3–2 H	D 2–2 H
FC Volendam	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 H
Points	34 of 75 · 1.36 per game	24 of 75 · 0.96 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Heerenveen wins0 draws0 Telstar wins

Goals per game3.00 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

19 Oct 2025Telstar2–3Heerenveen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Heerenveen	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.69	1.35
Conceded per game	1.69	1.62
Match goals	3.38	2.96	3.31
Over 1.5	96%	85%
Over 2.5	73%	54%	64%
Over 3.5	42%	38%
Both teams scored	73%	65%	65%
Clean sheets	8%	15%
Failed to score	19%	23%
Games	26	26

	Heerenveen	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.60
Conceded per game	1.80	1.50
Match goals	3.60	3.10	3.31
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	64%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	65%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Heerenveen	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	4.92
Corners conceded	4.92	5.96
Match total	10.52	10.88	10.33
Over 8.5	80% 20/25	76% 19/25
Over 9.5	60% 15/25	64% 16/25
Over 10.5	52% 13/25	56% 14/25
Cards
Cards	1.54	1.31
Opponent cards	1.50	1.73
Match total	3.04	3.04	3.44
Over 3.5	35% 9/26	31% 8/26
Over 4.5	19% 5/26	27% 7/26

	Heerenveen	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	4.22	5.00
Corners conceded	5.67	5.20
Match total	9.89	10.20	10.33
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.00
Opponent cards	1.20	1.60
Match total	2.50	2.60	3.44
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 58 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.45league 3.25

Red cards0.29league 0.18

Cards 5+34%league 29%

Fouls22.2league 21.4

Penalties0.17league 0.24

Home wins48%league 44%

Heerenveen6 with this referee

Record1-2-3 Cards · opp.1.8 · 0.8 Pens for · against1 · 1

D11 Jan 26H · Feyenoord2–21
L12 Apr 25A · Sparta Rotterdam1–32
W12 Jan 25A · NAC Breda4–23
L14 Sep 24A · AZ Alkmaar1–91
D28 Jan 24H · AZ Alkmaar2–22

Telstar3 with this referee

Record0-1-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

L22 Feb 26A · Feyenoord1–21
L30 Nov 25H · Feyenoord1–20
D23 Aug 25H · FC Volendam2–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.