Heerenveen vs Twente – 9 Aug 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 9 · 15:45 Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen

Heerenveen

1–0Full time

Twente

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 29). Heerenveen had 84.1 days of rest, Twente 9.8 and had to travel 106 km.

Away travel106 kmRest days84.1 · 9.8Matches / 14d0 · 1

Heerenveen36%

Draw24%

Twente40%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.54

Heerenveen36%

Draw26%

Twente38%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.37

Heerenveen36%

Draw24%

Twente40%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.54

Heerenveen29%

Draw24%

Twente48%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.72

Heerenveen36%

Draw25%

Twente40%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.52

Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Heerenveen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal

Cards per match 2.6
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 56

Team strength

Heerenveen

Twente

29 L90 StrengthIn forecast 43

31 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

36 AttackIn forecast 41

40 DefenceIn forecast 49

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heerenveen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Twente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Heerenveen

Twente

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.32

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.38

70% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.40 ShotsContext 15.88

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.25

43% On target shareContext 39%

8.90 Shots in the boxContext 11.25

73% Box shareContext 67%

14% ConversionContext 11%

1.13 OffsidesContext 2.25

17.50 Shots allowedContext 12.00

6.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

5.56 BlocksContext 3.86

4.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

75% Save rateContext 67%

52% PossessionIn forecast 53%

442 PassesContext 448

360 Accurate passesContext 362

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.94

9.40 FoulsContext 8.38

7.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.13

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 0.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heerenveen

Rest84.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Twente

Rest9.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel106 km2,029 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Heerenveen	Twente
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 5
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	84.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 May	9.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 30 Jul
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	106 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	2,029 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Heerenveen Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

22B. Klaverboer(G)

19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 15M. Egbring

6D. Proper

29Lanroy Machine 10R. Meerveld 16M. Linday 20J. Trenskow

9D. Vente

Twente Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1L. Unnerstall(G)

29A. Adelgaard 3R. Pröpper 38M. Bruns 28B. van Rooij

20T. van den Belt 6R. Zerrouki

27S. Ørjasæter 11D. Rots 7M. Pjaca

9W. Weghorst

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Heerenveen Absences are shown before kick-off

Twente Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Heerenveen+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Twente+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Heerenveen · Home No home games yet this season.

Twente · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

0 Heerenveen wins1 draws4 Twente wins

Goals per game0.80 – 2.60 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets0% · 60%

7 Feb 2026Twente5–0Heerenveen
24 Aug 2025Heerenveen1–2Twente
9 Feb 2025Heerenveen3–3Twente
17 Sep 2024Twente2–0Heerenveen
30 Sep 2023Twente1–0Heerenveen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Heerenveen	Twente	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.98
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	57%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	60%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Heerenveen	Twente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.70
Conceded per game	1.10	1.70
Match goals	2.80	3.40	2.98
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	70%	80%	57%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	80%	60%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Heerenveen	Twente	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	12.29
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.71
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Heerenveen	Twente	League
Corners
Corners won	5.56	5.13
Corners conceded	5.56	4.88
Match total	11.12	10.01	12.29
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	1.00	0.90
Opponent cards	1.20	1.70
Match total	2.20	2.60	2.71
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 56 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.52league 2.50

Red cards0.11league 0.13

Cards 5+21%league 13%

Fouls19.5league 21.4

Penalties0.21league 0.00

Home wins57%league 38%

Heerenveen5 with this referee

Record1-2-2 Cards · opp.1.2 · 0.6 Pens for · against0 · 1

L12 Apr 26A · AZ Alkmaar0–31
D9 Aug 25H · FC Volendam1–11
L19 Oct 24A · NEC Nijmegen0–33
D7 Oct 23H · NEC Nijmegen1–11
W12 Aug 23H · Waalwijk3–10

Twente5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.0.8 · 2.0 Pens for · against2 · 0

L15 Mar 26H · Utrecht0–21
D18 Oct 25A · NEC Nijmegen3–33
W11 May 25H · Utrecht2–00
W9 Mar 25H · Almere City FC1–00
L18 Feb 24H · Utrecht0–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.