Heerenveen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Heerenveen35.1%fair odds 2.85
Draw25.6%fair odds 3.91
Twente39.4%fair odds 2.54
Expected goals1.44 – 1.54total 2.98
Likeliest score1–111.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Twente
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Heerenveen ↓ · Twente → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Heerenveen goals, columns Twente goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%8.42
- 1–28.7%11.54
- 2–18.1%12.32
- 0–17.2%13.83
- 1–06.7%14.85
- 2–26.2%16.02
- 0–26.0%16.62
- 0–05.7%17.58
- 2–05.3%18.94
- 1–34.4%22.51
Winning margin
6.2%
Heerenveen by 3+
fair 16.20
10.4%
Heerenveen by 2
fair 9.59
18.5%
Heerenveen by 1
fair 5.42
25.6%
Draw
fair 3.91
19.8%
Twente by 1
fair 5.06
11.9%
Twente by 2
fair 8.41
7.7%
Twente by 3+
fair 12.95
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Heerenveen goals
24%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Twente goals
21%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen win | 35.1% | 35.1% | -0.0 pp |
| Draw | 25.6% | 25.8% | -0.2 pp |
| Twente win | 39.4% | 39.2% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.2% | 56.3% | +0.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.5% | 59.9% | +0.7 pp |
| Expected goals Heerenveen | 1.44 | 1.42 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Twente | 1.54 | 1.52 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Heerenveen win35.1%2.85
- Draw25.6%3.91
- Twente win39.4%2.54
- Double chance Heerenveen or draw60.6%1.65
- Double chance Heerenveen or Twente74.4%1.34
- Double chance Twente or draw64.9%1.54
- Draw no bet Heerenveen47.1%2.12
- Draw no bet Twente52.9%1.89
Goals
- Over 0.594.3%1.06
- Over 1.580.3%1.24
- Over 2.557.2%1.75
- Over 3.534.8%2.88
- Over 4.518.1%5.52
- Under 1.519.7%5.09
- Under 2.542.8%2.34
- Under 3.565.2%1.53
Both teams to score
- Yes60.5%1.65
- No39.5%2.53
- Yes and over 2.548.6%2.06
- Heerenveen win and yes19.3%5.19
- Draw and yes19.9%5.03
- Twente win and yes21.4%4.68
Team goals
- Heerenveen over 0.576.3%1.31
- Heerenveen over 1.542.2%2.37
- Heerenveen over 2.517.6%5.67
- Twente over 0.578.5%1.27
- Twente over 1.545.5%2.20
- Twente over 2.520.1%4.98
- Heerenveen clean sheet21.5%4.65
- Twente clean sheet23.7%4.22
- Heerenveen win to nil15.8%6.33
- Twente win to nil18.0%5.56
Handicap
- Heerenveen −1.516.6%6.02
- Heerenveen −2.56.2%16.20
- Twente +1.583.4%1.20
- Twente +2.593.8%1.07
- Twente −1.519.6%5.10
- Heerenveen +1.580.4%1.24
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored8
Favourite won62.5%
Avg chance given to result40.5%
1X2 Brier0.633
Over 2.5 called right62.5%
BTTS called right37.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.4% | 100.0% |
| 40–50% | 1 | 47.6% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 4 | 55.3% | 75.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 65.4% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 84.4% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 8 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
- ✓Groningen 2–1 Utrecht37·25·37
- ✓PEC Zwolle 0–2 Ajax23·23·54
- ✓Sparta Rotterdam 0–1 Feyenoord22·23·55
- ✓AZ Alkmaar 2–0 ADO Den Haag65·20·15
- ✗PSV Eindhoven 2–2 Fortuna Sittard84·10·5
- ✓GO Ahead Eagles 4–1 Willem II54·23·23
- ✗NEC Nijmegen 1–2 Telstar58·22·20
- ✗Cambuur 0–4 Excelsior48·24·28
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 8 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.