Heerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Heerenveen
11th · 24 pts · 19 played
LWWDL
First leg2–2
1–1Full time
Utrecht
12th · 23 pts · 19 played
DDLLL
Our take
Heerenveen were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Heerenveen. Heerenveen had 14.2 days of rest, Utrecht 2.8 and had to travel 111 km.
Away travel111 kmRest days14.2 · 2.8Matches / 14d0 · 3
Heerenveen44%
Draw26%
Utrecht30%
Heerenveen42%
Draw27%
Utrecht31%
Heerenveen44%
Draw26%
Utrecht30%
Heerenveen36%
Draw27%
Utrecht37%
Heerenveen43%
Draw27%
Utrecht30%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heerenveen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 30
Team strength
HeerenveenUtrecht
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
31
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
36
AttackIn forecast
32
40
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeerenveenUtrecht
1.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.53
1.58
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.37
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
79%
Scored inContext
84%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
15.32
ShotsContext
14.74
5.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.84
35%
On target shareContext
33%
9.89
Shots in the boxContext
9.74
63%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.67
9.95
Shots allowedContext
11.42
4.21
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.47
2.43
BlocksContext
3.81
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.05
63%
Save rateContext
68%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
434
PassesContext
407
348
Accurate passesContext
328
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.42
FoulsContext
10.84
10.84
Fouls sufferedContext
10.89
1.47
Yellow cardsContext
1.32
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.20
ShotsContext
12.50
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
39%
On target shareContext
34%
9.89
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
62%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.86
9.50
Shots allowedContext
12.80
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
2.11
BlocksContext
3.30
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
64%
Save rateContext
64%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
440
PassesContext
391
354
Accurate passesContext
319
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.20
FoulsContext
10.20
8.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heerenveen
Rest14.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Utrecht
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel111 km1,484 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heerenveen |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 23 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 111 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,484 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
6J. van Overeem
45O. Braude
8L. Brouwers
16M. Linday
7M. Rivera
10R. Meerveld
20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
55D. Murkin
3M. van der Hoorn
40M. Didden
23N. Vesterlund
8C. Bozdoğan
27A. Engwanda
21G. Zechiël
11K. Karlsson
20D. de Wit
77Ángel Alarcón
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heerenveen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Utrecht
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heerenveen-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Utrecht+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Heerenveen · Home
1.30points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-3
- Scored
- 1.70
- Conceded
- 1.80
Utrecht · Away
0.67points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-5
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 1.78
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Heerenveen | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Feyenoord | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Heracles | W 3–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 3–0 A | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| PEC Zwolle | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 3–1 H | L 1–4 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Ajax | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| NAC Breda | D 3–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Telstar | W 3–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 H | W 4–1 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 3–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Twente | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| FC Volendam | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Points | 23 of 54 · 1.28 per game | 22 of 54 · 1.22 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Heerenveen wins2 draws1 Utrecht wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.25
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 28 Sep 2025Utrecht2–2Heerenveen
- 30 Mar 2025Utrecht2–0Heerenveen
- 17 Aug 2024Heerenveen1–1Utrecht
- 20 Aug 2023Utrecht0–2Heerenveen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heerenveen | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.63 | 1.53 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.58 | 1.37 | |
| Match goals | 3.21 | 2.89 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 95% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 58% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 37% | |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 68% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 16% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Heerenveen | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.90 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heerenveen | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.95 | 4.65 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.47 | 4.65 | |
| Match total | 10.42 | 9.30 | 10.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 79% 15/19 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 10/19 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 8/19 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.58 | 1.32 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.58 | 2.05 | |
| Match total | 3.16 | 3.37 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 37% 7/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 4/19 | 16% 3/19 | |
| Heerenveen | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.78 | 10.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.90 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 2.20 | 3.70 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.70league 3.36
Red cards0.07league 0.20
Cards 5+30%league 31%
Fouls23.3league 21.7
Penalties0.17league 0.26
Home wins53%league 45%
Heerenveen7 with this referee
Record3-2-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- D1 Nov 25A · Ajax1–12
- W21 Sep 25H · NEC Nijmegen3–21
- W27 Apr 25H · NEC Nijmegen1–01
- L30 Mar 25A · Utrecht0–21
- W26 Oct 24H · Sparta Rotterdam2–04
Utrecht4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D30 Nov 25A · GO Ahead Eagles2–22
- W31 Aug 25A · PEC Zwolle2–01
- W30 Mar 25H · Heerenveen2–01
- W11 Aug 24H · PEC Zwolle1–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heerenveen19 games · scored 31 · conceded 30
2
3
0-15
3
6
16-30
8
5
31-45
5
4
46-60
5
4
61-75
8
8
76-90
Utrecht19 games · scored 29 · conceded 26
1
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
4
31-45
7
5
46-60
6
3
61-75
5
7
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
0-15
1
4
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
1
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
