Heracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Heracles
18th · 19 pts · 29 played
LDLDL
First leg0–2
0–3Full time
Ajax
5th · 48 pts · 29 played
DLWDL
Our take
Ajax were clear favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 11). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Ajax. Heracles had 6.3 days of rest, Ajax 7 and had to travel 120 km.
Away travel120 kmRest days6.3 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Heracles17%
Draw21%
Ajax62%
Heracles19%
Draw24%
Ajax57%
Heracles17%
Draw22%
Ajax61%
Heracles12%
Draw18%
Ajax70%
Heracles17%
Draw22%
Ajax61%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Almelo)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartin Van den Kerkhof
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 36
Team strength
HeraclesAjax
11
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
9
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
7
AttackIn forecast
66
10
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAjax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeraclesAjax
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.86
2.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.28
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
59%
Scored inContext
93%
7%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
10.34
ShotsContext
14.10
4.12
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.86
36%
On target shareContext
42%
6.89
Shots in the boxContext
9.86
64%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.74
16.66
Shots allowedContext
12.76
6.72
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.71
4.93
BlocksContext
3.89
4.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.32
62%
Save rateContext
71%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
337
PassesContext
516
259
Accurate passesContext
442
77%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.71
Team ratingContext
7.01
12.83
FoulsContext
10.07
11.38
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.93
Yellow cardsContext
1.66
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
2.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
60%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.80
ShotsContext
11.30
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
35%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
65%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.63
15.30
Shots allowedContext
11.70
6.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.50
BlocksContext
3.40
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
64%
Save rateContext
62%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
334
PassesContext
495
252
Accurate passesContext
414
76%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.92
14.00
FoulsContext
9.30
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heracles
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km167 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Ajax
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel120 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heracles |
Ajax |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 5 Apr | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 120 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 167 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.7 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heracles
Confirmed XI
22R. Pasveer(G)
24I. Mesík
18A. Van Hoorenbeeck
4D. Mirani
3J. Wieckhoff
32S. Scheperman
10T. Bruns
9N. Ünüvar
8M. Engels
17T. van Gilst
25L. Zeefuik
Ajax
Confirmed XI
26M. Paes(G)
2Lucas Rosa
15Y. Baas
37J. Šutalo
3A. Gaaei
24J. Mokio
4K. Itakura
10O. Gloukh
11M. Godts
25W. Weghorst
23S. Berghuis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heracles
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Ajax
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heracles-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Ajax+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Heracles · Home
1.07points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-7
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 2.07
Ajax · Away
1.29points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-9-2
- Scored
- 1.79
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Heracles | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | L 1–4 AL 0–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Excelsior | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–4 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Utrecht | D 0–0 HL 0–4 A | L 1–2 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–3 HL 3–4 A | D 2–2 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 0–4 AW 4–2 H | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| NAC Breda | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 1–4 AL 1–4 H | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Feyenoord | L 2–4 AL 0–7 H | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Twente | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H | W 4–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Telstar | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 AW 2–0 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 8–2 H | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H |
| FC Volendam | L 0–3 A | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Groningen | L 0–4 A | L 1–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Points | 19 of 84 · 0.68 per game | 45 of 84 · 1.61 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 Heracles wins0 draws5 Ajax wins
Goals per game1.20 – 3.60
Over 2.580%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 24 Aug 2025Ajax2–0Heracles
- 16 Feb 2025Ajax4–0Heracles
- 20 Oct 2024Heracles3–4Ajax
- 27 Jan 2024Heracles2–4Ajax
- 12 Aug 2023Ajax4–1Heracles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heracles | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.55 | 1.28 | |
| Match goals | 3.72 | 3.14 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 93% | 97% | |
| Over 2.5 | 72% | 59% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 72% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 7% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 7% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Heracles | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.80 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heracles | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 4.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.03 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 9.70 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 66% 19/29 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 12/29 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 9/29 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.69 | 1.66 | |
| Match total | 3.69 | 3.35 | 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 13/29 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 28% 8/29 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Heracles | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.56 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 2.50 | 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Van den Kerkhof Netherlands · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.36league 3.18
Red cards0.28league 0.17
Cards 5+17%league 26%
Fouls18.6league 21.2
Penalties0.28league 0.23
Home wins42%league 45%
Heracles5 with this referee
Record0-1-4
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L20 Dec 25H · Heerenveen0–31
- L18 May 25H · NEC Nijmegen1–20
- D31 Jan 25A · NAC Breda1–10
- L18 Aug 24H · PSV Eindhoven1–31
- L28 Oct 23A · Heerenveen0–32
Ajax2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 Sep 24H · Fortuna Sittard5–00
- W2 Nov 23H · FC Volendam2–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heracles29 games · scored 34 · conceded 74
3
9
0-15
8
8
16-30
6
17
31-45
7
12
46-60
4
9
61-75
6
19
76-90
Ajax29 games · scored 54 · conceded 37
9
5
0-15
8
5
16-30
14
6
31-45
10
8
46-60
4
7
61-75
9
6
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 8 · conceded 26
3
0-15
5
3
16-30
1
7
31-45
5
46-60
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
