Heracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Heracles
18th · 14 pts · 20 played
LLLLL
First leg1–1
2–1Full time
Fortuna Sittard
10th · 25 pts · 20 played
LWDLW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Fortuna Sittard were the stronger side on L90 Strength (20 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Heracles. Heracles had 6.9 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 7 and had to travel 161 km.
Away travel161 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Heracles39%
Draw26%
Fortuna Sittard35%
Heracles37%
Draw27%
Fortuna Sittard36%
Heracles39%
Draw26%
Fortuna Sittard35%
Heracles32%
Draw26%
Fortuna Sittard42%
Heracles39%
Draw26%
Fortuna Sittard35%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Almelo)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRichard Martens
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 13
Team strength
HeraclesFortuna Sittard
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
9
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
7
AttackIn forecast
19
10
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeraclesFortuna Sittard
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
60%
Scored inContext
85%
5%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
10.40
ShotsContext
12.85
4.53
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.74
37%
On target shareContext
35%
7.05
Shots in the boxContext
8.05
64%
Box shareContext
62%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
1.77
OffsidesContext
1.88
17.30
Shots allowedContext
14.60
6.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.55
5.68
BlocksContext
4.21
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
60%
Save rateContext
72%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
336
PassesContext
362
259
Accurate passesContext
278
77%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.40
FoulsContext
13.25
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.77
+0.61
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
70%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.10
ShotsContext
13.10
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
44%
On target shareContext
37%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
74%
Box shareContext
57%
19%
ConversionContext
12%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.67
14.90
Shots allowedContext
15.70
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
4.89
BlocksContext
5.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
61%
Save rateContext
70%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
340
PassesContext
331
262
Accurate passesContext
252
77%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.30
FoulsContext
13.10
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heracles
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km313 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fortuna Sittard
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel161 km503 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heracles |
Fortuna Sittard |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 161 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 313 km | 503 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heracles
Confirmed XI
22R. Pasveer(G)
24I. Mesík
18A. Van Hoorenbeeck
23M. te Wierik
5D. van der Kust
4D. Mirani
70A. Hrustić
2M. Benita
9N. Ünüvar
73W. Ould-Chikh
25L. Zeefuik
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
21N. Kasanwirjo
44Iván Márquez
4S. Adewoye
28J. Hubner
23P. Brittijn
20É. Michut
12Ivo Pinto
7K. Peterson
52M. Ihattaren
9K. Sierhuis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heracles
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fortuna Sittard
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heracles-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Fortuna Sittard+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Heracles · Home
1.11points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-5
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.56
Fortuna Sittard · Away
0.80points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-6
- Scored
- 1.30
- Conceded
- 1.90
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Heracles | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | L 2–4 AL 0–7 H | L 0–2 A |
| Twente | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Heerenveen | L 0–3 H | W 2–0 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 3–4 A | L 1–2 HL 2–5 A |
| Telstar | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 4–2 H | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 8–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| FC Volendam | L 0–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| NAC Breda | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–2 H | W 4–3 H |
| Groningen | L 0–4 A | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Ajax | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 1–4 H | W 3–2 H |
| Utrecht | L 0–4 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 13 of 57 · 0.68 per game | 24 of 57 · 1.26 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Heracles wins2 draws2 Fortuna Sittard wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 29 Nov 2025Fortuna Sittard1–1Heracles
- 8 Mar 2025Fortuna Sittard1–0Heracles
- 7 Dec 2024Heracles2–2Fortuna Sittard
- 10 Nov 2023Fortuna Sittard4–1Heracles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heracles | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.20 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 5% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 15% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Heracles | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 4.30 | 3.50 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heracles | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.84 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.45 | 6.63 | |
| Match total | 10.65 | 11.47 | 10.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 15/20 | 84% 16/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 11/20 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 8/20 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.05 | 1.55 | |
| Match total | 4.15 | 3.85 | 3.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 10/20 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 7/20 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Heracles | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.20 | 7.40 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 12.70 | 10.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.20 | 3.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Richard Martens Netherlands · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.85league 3.35
Red cards0.15league 0.20
Cards 5+15%league 31%
Fouls20.0league 21.7
Penalties0.23league 0.27
Home wins38%league 44%
Heracles1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D7 Dec 24H · Fortuna Sittard2–22
Fortuna Sittard2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D7 Dec 24A · Heracles2–21
- L17 Feb 24H · AZ Alkmaar1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heracles20 games · scored 28 · conceded 52
3
6
0-15
4
6
16-30
5
11
31-45
7
7
46-60
4
7
61-75
5
15
76-90
Fortuna Sittard20 games · scored 30 · conceded 34
8
5
0-15
1
7
16-30
5
7
31-45
3
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
9
6
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 21 · conceded 22
1
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
7
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 16 · conceded 19
4
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
