Heracles vs Groningen – 17 May 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, May 17 · 13:30 Erve Asito, Almelo

Heracles 18th · 19 pts · 33 played LLLLL

First leg0–4 1–2Full time

Groningen 9th · 45 pts · 33 played WDLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Groningen were slight favourites.

Groningen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 9). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Groningen. Heracles had 6.9 days of rest, Groningen 6.9 and had to travel 96 km.

Away travel96 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 1

Heracles20%

Draw22%

Groningen58%

Expected goals 1.16 – 2.11

Heracles26%

Draw26%

Groningen48%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.60

Heracles22%

Draw22%

Groningen56%

Expected goals 1.19 – 2.01

Heracles15%

Draw19%

Groningen66%

Expected goals 1.04 – 2.36

Heracles20%

Draw22%

Groningen58%

Expected goals 1.13 – 2.03

Over 2.5 63% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Almelo)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsRichard Martens

Cards per match 3.1
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 17

Team strength

Heracles

Groningen

9 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27

9 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

7 AttackIn forecast 41

10 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heracles

Attack—

Defense risk—

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Heracles

Groningen

1.03 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.42

2.52 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

1.90 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

52% Scored inContext 79%

6% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.52 ShotsContext 15.18

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.88

34% On target shareContext 38%

6.97 Shots in the boxContext 9.09

64% Box shareContext 59%

10% ConversionContext 9%

1.77 OffsidesContext 1.96

16.36 Shots allowedContext 11.18

6.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.28

4.84 BlocksContext 3.07

4.15 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.93

62% Save rateContext 66%

44% PossessionIn forecast 51%

338 PassesContext 414

262 Accurate passesContext 331

77% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.85

12.94 FoulsContext 10.45

11.36 Fouls sufferedContext 9.85

1.97 Yellow cardsContext 1.58

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

0.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.95 xGVia Att/Def 1.94

2.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

-0.65 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

30% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.50 ShotsContext 16.20

2.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90

27% On target shareContext 36%

6.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.40

58% Box shareContext 64%

3% ConversionContext 11%

1.33 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.40 Shots allowedContext 11.70

7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

3.80 BlocksContext 3.30

4.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

66% Save rateContext 64%

47% PossessionIn forecast 50%

349 PassesContext 410

276 Accurate passesContext 322

79% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.61 Team ratingContext 6.91

14.10 FoulsContext 9.60

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 9.20

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heracles

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km358 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Groningen

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel96 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Heracles	Groningen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 May	6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	96 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	358 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	—	84

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Heracles Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16T. Jansink(G)

5D. van der Kust 4D. Mirani 23M. te Wierik 2M. Benita

32S. Scheperman 13J. Žambůrek

73W. Ould-Chikh 10T. Bruns 17T. van Gilst

8M. Engels

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Groningen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1E. Vaessen(G)

43M. Peersman 4D. Janse 3T. Blokzijl 5M. Rente

18T. Land 8T. de Jonge

14J. Schreuders 10Y. Taha 17D. van der Werff

26T. van Bergen

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Heracles Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.11 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Groningen Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Heracles-1.7 pp
Draw-0.8 pp
Groningen+2.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Heracles · Home 0.94points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-9
Scored: 1.38
Conceded: 2.13

Groningen · Away 1.25points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 6-2-8
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.63

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Heracles	Groningen
Telstar	L 0–3 AD 1–1 H	W 2–0 AW 2–0 H
PEC Zwolle	L 0–1 AW 8–2 H	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H
FC Volendam	L 0–2 HL 0–3 A	L 2–3 AW 3–0 H
Ajax	L 0–3 HL 0–2 A	W 3–1 HL 0–2 A
Heerenveen	L 1–4 AL 0–3 H	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H
Excelsior	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A	L 2–3 HW 2–0 A
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–4 AL 1–2 H	W 3–0 HL 1–4 A
Utrecht	D 0–0 HL 0–4 A	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–3 HL 3–4 A	L 1–2 HL 2–4 A
GO Ahead Eagles	L 0–4 AW 4–2 H	D 0–0 HD 1–1 A
NAC Breda	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A	D 0–0 HW 2–1 A
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–4 AL 1–4 H	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A
Feyenoord	L 2–4 AL 0–7 H	L 1–3 AL 0–1 H
Twente	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–2 AW 3–0 H	L 0–2 AL 0–2 H
Points	19 of 96 · 0.59 per game	42 of 96 · 1.31 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Heracles wins1 draws2 Groningen wins

Goals per game0.67 – 3.00 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

29 Aug 2025Groningen4–0Heracles
23 Apr 2025Groningen4–1Heracles
28 Jan 2025Heracles1–1Groningen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Heracles	Groningen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.03	1.42
Conceded per game	2.52	1.33
Match goals	3.55	2.76	3.27
Over 1.5	91%	88%
Over 2.5	70%	55%	63%
Over 3.5	39%	24%
Both teams scored	48%	55%	61%
Clean sheets	6%	30%
Failed to score	48%	21%
Games	33	33

	Heracles	Groningen	Forecast
Scored per game	0.30	1.70
Conceded per game	2.50	1.40
Match goals	2.80	3.10	3.27
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	63%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	30%	70%	61%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	70%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Heracles	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	4.24	6.06
Corners conceded	5.97	4.81
Match total	10.21	10.87	10.30
Over 8.5	67% 22/33	75% 24/32
Over 9.5	45% 15/33	53% 17/32
Over 10.5	36% 12/33	44% 14/32
Cards
Cards	2.09	1.64
Opponent cards	1.61	1.36
Match total	3.70	3.00	3.28
Over 3.5	45% 15/33	36% 12/33
Over 4.5	30% 10/33	18% 6/33

	Heracles	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	6.10
Corners conceded	5.70	5.40
Match total	10.00	11.50	10.30
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.40
Opponent cards	0.80	0.50
Match total	3.20	1.90	3.28
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Richard Martens Netherlands · 17 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.94league 3.11

Red cards0.12league 0.17

Cards 5+18%league 26%

Fouls20.8league 21.2

Penalties0.24league 0.21

Home wins53%league 45%

Heracles2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W1 Feb 26H · Fortuna Sittard2–12
D7 Dec 24H · Fortuna Sittard2–22

Groningen1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L1 Mar 26A · FC Volendam2–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.