Heracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 17). Heracles had 6.1 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 7.1 and had to travel 80 km.
Away travel80 kmRest days6.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Heracles33%
Draw27%
NEC Nijmegen41%
Heracles33%
Draw27%
NEC Nijmegen40%
Heracles33%
Draw27%
NEC Nijmegen41%
Heracles26%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen48%
Heracles33%
Draw27%
NEC Nijmegen40%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Almelo)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 24
Team strength
Heracles
NEC Nijmegen
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
9
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
7
AttackIn forecast
37
10
DefenceIn forecast
33
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
HeraclesNEC Nijmegen
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.50
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.60
ShotsContext
13.00
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
35%
On target shareContext
35%
5.75
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
60%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.38
14.90
Shots allowedContext
13.50
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
4.60
BlocksContext
4.00
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
64%
Save rateContext
83%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
355
PassesContext
410
284
Accurate passesContext
326
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.10
12.70
FoulsContext
11.10
9.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Heracles
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km218 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NEC Nijmegen
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel80 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Heracles |
NEC Nijmegen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 Aug | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 9 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 80 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 218 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Heracles
Confirmed XI
1F. de Keijzer(G)
15D. van der Kust
24I. Mesík
4D. Mirani
3J. Wieckhoff
13J. Žambůrek
32S. Scheperman
17T. van Gilst
10T. Bruns
7B. Limbombe
9J. Hornkamp
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
24C. Verdonk
3P. Sandler
2B. Pereira
11B. Önal
71D. Proper
23K. Sano
25S. Ouaissa
30B. Linssen
18K. Ogawa
10T. Chery
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Heracles
Absences are shown before kick-off
NEC Nijmegen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Heracles+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- NEC Nijmegen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Heracles · Home
No home games yet this season.
NEC Nijmegen · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Heracles wins0 draws2 NEC Nijmegen wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.75
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 18 May 2025Heracles1–2NEC Nijmegen
- 21 Sep 2024NEC Nijmegen1–2Heracles
- 3 Feb 2024NEC Nijmegen3–1Heracles
- 18 Aug 2023Heracles2–1NEC Nijmegen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Heracles | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 5.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 4.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 5.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Heracles | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 5.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 4.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 5.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Heracles | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.00 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Heracles | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 9.50 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.38league 2.91
Red cards0.29league 0.09
Cards 5+25%league 27%
Fouls22.8league 22.2
Penalties0.42league 0.18
Home wins54%league 64%
Heracles1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L7 Oct 23A · GO Ahead Eagles0–42
NEC Nijmegen2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L7 Dec 24A · GO Ahead Eagles0–52
- L25 Oct 24A · Almere City FC0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Heracles1 games · scored 0 · conceded 4
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
NEC Nijmegen1 games · scored 5 · conceded 0
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 10 · conceded 21
1
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
6
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 20 · conceded 9
2
2
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
3
46-60
7
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
