Heracles
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Heracles32.9%fair odds 3.04
Draw26.6%fair odds 3.76
NEC Nijmegen40.5%fair odds 2.47
Expected goals1.30 – 1.47total 2.77
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
NEC Nijmegen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Heracles ↓ · NEC Nijmegen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Heracles goals, columns NEC Nijmegen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.92
- 1–28.8%11.37
- 0–18.6%11.64
- 2–17.8%12.84
- 1–07.5%13.26
- 0–06.9%14.43
- 0–26.8%14.77
- 2–25.7%17.51
- 2–05.3%18.83
- 1–34.3%23.26
Winning margin
5.0%
Heracles by 3+
fair 19.84
9.6%
Heracles by 2
fair 10.42
18.2%
Heracles by 1
fair 5.48
26.6%
Draw
fair 3.76
20.7%
NEC Nijmegen by 1
fair 4.84
12.2%
NEC Nijmegen by 2
fair 8.18
7.6%
NEC Nijmegen by 3+
fair 13.15
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Heracles goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
NEC Nijmegen goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 32.9% | 32.8% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 26.6% | 27.1% | -0.5 pp |
| NEC Nijmegen win | 40.5% | 40.1% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.2% | 50.1% | +2.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.6% | 55.0% | +1.6 pp |
| Expected goals Heracles | 1.30 | 1.26 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals NEC Nijmegen | 1.47 | 1.42 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Heracles win32.9%3.04
- Draw26.6%3.76
- NEC Nijmegen win40.5%2.47
- Double chance Heracles or draw59.5%1.68
- Double chance Heracles or NEC Nijmegen73.4%1.36
- Double chance NEC Nijmegen or draw67.1%1.49
- Draw no bet Heracles44.8%2.23
- Draw no bet NEC Nijmegen55.2%1.81
Goals
- Over 0.593.1%1.07
- Over 1.576.9%1.30
- Over 2.552.2%1.91
- Over 3.530.0%3.33
- Over 4.514.7%6.80
- Under 1.523.1%4.34
- Under 2.547.8%2.09
- Under 3.570.0%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes56.6%1.77
- No43.4%2.30
- Yes and over 2.544.0%2.27
- Heracles win and yes16.7%5.98
- Draw and yes19.7%5.08
- NEC Nijmegen win and yes20.2%4.96
Team goals
- Heracles over 0.572.7%1.38
- Heracles over 1.537.3%2.68
- Heracles over 2.514.3%7.01
- NEC Nijmegen over 0.576.9%1.30
- NEC Nijmegen over 1.543.1%2.32
- NEC Nijmegen over 2.518.3%5.47
- Heracles clean sheet23.1%4.33
- NEC Nijmegen clean sheet27.3%3.67
- Heracles win to nil16.1%6.20
- NEC Nijmegen win to nil20.3%4.91
Handicap
- Heracles −1.514.6%6.83
- Heracles −2.55.0%19.84
- NEC Nijmegen +1.585.4%1.17
- NEC Nijmegen +2.595.0%1.05
- NEC Nijmegen −1.519.8%5.04
- Heracles +1.580.2%1.25
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored11
Favourite won63.6%
Avg chance given to result52.1%
1X2 Brier0.409
Over 2.5 called right54.5%
BTTS called right45.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.8% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 2 | 43.6% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 53.9% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 62.2% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 76.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 80.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 7 of 11 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.3713 | 0.3635 |
| Avg chance given to result | 53.7% | 57.1% |
| Favourite won | 71.4% | 71.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 7 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 11 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.