Heracles vs Utrecht – 6 Mar 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Fri, Mar 6 · 19:00 Erve Asito, Almelo

Heracles 18th · 17 pts · 25 played WLLLL

First leg0–4 0–0Full time

Utrecht 8th · 34 pts · 25 played LWWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Utrecht were slight favourites.

Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Utrecht. Heracles had 6.1 days of rest, Utrecht 5.1 and had to travel 109 km.

Away travel109 kmRest days6.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Heracles23%

Draw24%

Utrecht53%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.83

Heracles27%

Draw26%

Utrecht47%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.58

Heracles22%

Draw24%

Utrecht54%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.82

Heracles17%

Draw22%

Utrecht61%

Expected goals 1.01 – 2.05

Heracles23%

Draw24%

Utrecht53%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.81

Over 2.5 57% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Almelo)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 33

Team strength

Heracles

Utrecht

12 L90 StrengthIn forecast 32

9 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

7 AttackIn forecast 32

10 DefenceIn forecast 31

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heracles

Attack—

Defense risk—

Utrecht

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Heracles

Utrecht

1.28 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.52

2.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.24

1.15 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

1.90 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

60% Scored inContext 84%

4% Clean sheetsContext 16%

10.60 ShotsContext 14.16

4.27 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.68

36% On target shareContext 33%

7.21 Shots in the boxContext 9.48

65% Box shareContext 66%

12% ConversionContext 11%

1.94 OffsidesContext 1.59

16.68 Shots allowedContext 11.80

6.76 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44

5.04 BlocksContext 3.85

4.08 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.16

60% Save rateContext 71%

43% PossessionIn forecast 47%

335 PassesContext 398

258 Accurate passesContext 317

77% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.91

12.52 FoulsContext 10.80

11.08 Fouls sufferedContext 11.08

1.92 Yellow cardsContext 1.36

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

2.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.30

2.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

-0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

50% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.70 ShotsContext 13.20

3.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

32% On target shareContext 33%

6.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.60

68% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 9%

2.83 OffsidesContext 1.57

16.30 Shots allowedContext 11.20

7.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

4.33 BlocksContext 3.00

4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

62% Save rateContext 69%

43% PossessionIn forecast 48%

332 PassesContext 406

255 Accurate passesContext 326

77% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.64 Team ratingContext 6.82

12.70 FoulsContext 10.50

10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heracles

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km71 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Utrecht

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel109 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Heracles	Utrecht
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 28 Feb	5.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	109 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	71 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	8.8	8.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Heracles Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22R. Pasveer(G)

24I. Mesík 18A. Van Hoorenbeeck 4D. Mirani 3J. Wieckhoff

20Rhys Bozinovski 13J. Žambůrek

9N. Ünüvar 70A. Hrustić 14E. Ahlstrand

25L. Zeefuik

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Utrecht Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1V. Barkas(G)

16S. El Karouani 24N. Viergever 3M. van der Hoorn 40M. Didden

21G. Zechiël 27A. Engwanda

10Y. Cathline 20D. de Wit 77Ángel Alarcón

18A. Stepanov

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Heracles Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Utrecht Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Heracles+0.6 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Utrecht-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Heracles · Home 1.08points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-7
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 2.33

Utrecht · Away 1.08points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 3-4-5
Scored: 1.42
Conceded: 1.58

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Heracles	Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–3 HL 3–4 A	L 1–2 H
GO Ahead Eagles	L 0–4 AW 4–2 H	D 2–2 A
NAC Breda	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A	D 1–1 A
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–4 AL 1–4 H	W 3–1 AW 1–0 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	L 0–1 A
Feyenoord	L 2–4 AL 0–7 H	L 0–1 HL 2–3 A
Twente	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A	D 1–1 H
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–2 AW 3–0 H	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A
Heerenveen	L 0–3 H	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H
Telstar	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
Excelsior	W 2–1 A	W 4–1 H
PEC Zwolle	W 8–2 H	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A
FC Volendam	L 0–3 A	L 1–2 AW 3–1 H
AZ Alkmaar	L 1–2 H	W 2–0 HL 1–4 A
Groningen	L 0–4 A	W 2–1 AL 0–1 H
Ajax	L 0–2 A	W 2–1 H
Points	17 of 72 · 0.71 per game	31 of 72 · 1.29 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

0 Heracles wins1 draws4 Utrecht wins

Goals per game0.40 – 2.00 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets0% · 60%

10 Aug 2025Utrecht4–0Heracles
24 Jan 2025Heracles1–1Utrecht
8 Nov 2024Utrecht1–0Heracles
23 Feb 2024Utrecht1–0Heracles
16 Sep 2023Heracles1–3Utrecht

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Heracles	Utrecht	Forecast
Scored per game	1.28	1.52
Conceded per game	2.60	1.24
Match goals	3.88	2.76	2.96
Over 1.5	96%	80%
Over 2.5	76%	52%	57%
Over 3.5	44%	32%
Both teams scored	56%	68%	57%
Clean sheets	4%	16%
Failed to score	40%	16%
Games	25	25

	Heracles	Utrecht	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.20
Conceded per game	2.80	1.40
Match goals	3.70	2.60	2.96
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	57%
Over 3.5	50%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	10%
Failed to score	50%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Heracles	Utrecht	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	4.82
Corners conceded	5.96	4.59
Match total	10.16	9.41	10.27
Over 8.5	68% 17/25	59% 13/22
Over 9.5	44% 11/25	45% 10/22
Over 10.5	32% 8/25	36% 8/22
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.40
Opponent cards	1.88	2.04
Match total	3.88	3.44	3.48
Over 3.5	48% 12/25	48% 12/25
Over 4.5	32% 8/25	20% 5/25

	Heracles	Utrecht	League
Corners
Corners won	3.80	5.00
Corners conceded	5.30	4.38
Match total	9.10	9.38	10.27
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.40
Opponent cards	1.70	2.10
Match total	3.70	3.50	3.48
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 33 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.73league 3.29

Red cards0.06league 0.19

Cards 5+30%league 30%

Fouls23.1league 21.6

Penalties0.15league 0.25

Home wins48%league 45%

Heracles3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.2.3 · 0.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

L11 Jan 26A · Sparta Rotterdam0–23
D20 Jan 24H · FC Volendam1–11
W26 Nov 23A · Almere City FC5–03

Utrecht5 with this referee

Record3-2-0 Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 0

D1 Feb 26A · Heerenveen1–12
D30 Nov 25A · GO Ahead Eagles2–22
W31 Aug 25A · PEC Zwolle2–01
W30 Mar 25H · Heerenveen2–01
W11 Aug 24H · PEC Zwolle1–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.