Hibernian
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
Knockout phase Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00
Easter Road Stadium, Edinburgh
Hibernian17.3%fair odds 5.80
Draw19.2%fair odds 5.21
Celtic63.6%fair odds 1.57
Expected goals1.21 – 2.42total 3.63
Likeliest score1–29.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Celtic
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Hibernian ↓ · Celtic → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Hibernian goals, columns Celtic goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–29.4%10.64
- 1–18.2%12.20
- 0–27.8%12.87
- 1–37.6%13.21
- 0–36.3%15.98
- 0–16.0%16.61
- 2–25.7%17.58
- 2–14.7%21.23
- 2–34.6%21.83
- 1–44.6%21.87
Winning margin
2.1%
Hibernian by 3+
fair 47.87
4.7%
Hibernian by 2
fair 21.29
10.5%
Hibernian by 1
fair 9.56
19.2%
Draw
fair 5.21
21.3%
Celtic by 1
fair 4.69
18.7%
Celtic by 2
fair 5.34
23.5%
Celtic by 3+
fair 4.25
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
9%1
18%2
21%3
19%4
30%5+
Hibernian goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
Celtic goals
9%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
22%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernian win | 17.3% | 17.6% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 19.2% | 19.7% | -0.5 pp |
| Celtic win | 63.6% | 62.6% | +0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 70.2% | 68.3% | +1.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 64.3% | 63.1% | +1.2 pp |
| Expected goals Hibernian | 1.21 | 1.18 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals Celtic | 2.42 | 2.34 | +0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Hibernian win17.3%5.80
- Draw19.2%5.21
- Celtic win63.6%1.57
- Double chance Hibernian or draw36.4%2.74
- Double chance Hibernian or Celtic80.8%1.24
- Double chance Celtic or draw82.7%1.21
- Draw no bet Hibernian21.3%4.68
- Draw no bet Celtic78.7%1.27
Goals
- Over 0.596.9%1.03
- Over 1.588.1%1.14
- Over 2.570.2%1.43
- Over 3.549.0%2.04
- Over 4.529.8%3.35
- Under 1.511.9%8.40
- Under 2.529.8%3.35
- Under 3.551.0%1.96
Both teams to score
- Yes64.3%1.55
- No35.7%2.80
- Yes and over 2.556.1%1.78
- Hibernian win and yes11.4%8.78
- Draw and yes16.1%6.21
- Celtic win and yes36.8%2.72
Team goals
- Hibernian over 0.570.2%1.42
- Hibernian over 1.534.1%2.93
- Hibernian over 2.512.3%8.15
- Celtic over 0.591.1%1.10
- Celtic over 1.569.5%1.44
- Celtic over 2.543.4%2.30
- Hibernian clean sheet8.9%11.19
- Celtic clean sheet29.8%3.35
- Hibernian win to nil5.9%17.07
- Celtic win to nil26.7%3.74
Handicap
- Hibernian −1.56.8%14.73
- Hibernian −2.52.1%47.87
- Celtic +1.593.2%1.07
- Celtic +2.597.9%1.02
- Celtic −1.542.3%2.37
- Hibernian +1.557.7%1.73
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.