Premier League Gameweek 3 Sat, Sep 5 · 17:30 The MKM Stadium, Hull
Hull City 3rd · 6 pts · 2 played
0–0Full time
Aston Villa 19th · 0 pts · 2 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Aston Villa were slight favourites.

Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Hull City. Hull City had 7.1 days of rest, Aston Villa 4.9 and had to travel 175 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel175 kmRest days7.1 · 4.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Hull City21%
Draw23%
Aston Villa56%
Expected goals 0.98 – 1.77
Hull City17%
Draw21%
Aston Villa62%
Expected goals 0.91 – 1.96
Hull City21%
Draw23%
Aston Villa56%
Expected goals 0.98 – 1.76
Hull City16%
Draw21%
Aston Villa63%
Expected goals 0.88 – 1.98
Hull City21%
Draw23%
Aston Villa56%
Expected goals 1.03 – 1.82
Over 2.5 52% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hull)
20°CMainly clear
  • Precipitation 0.0 mm
  • Wind 13 km/h
  • Humidity 49%
RefereeMichael Oliver
  • Cards per match 3.9
  • Penalties per match 0.21
  • Matches 200

Team strength

Hull CityAston Villa
36 L90 StrengthIn forecast 83
37 Current StrengthIn forecast 82
37 AttackIn forecast 83
50 DefenceIn forecast 78
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Hull City

Attack—
Defense risk—

Aston Villa

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Hull CityAston Villa
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.00
0.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50
0.87 xGVia Att/Def 0.31
1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.41
+0.63 Goals minus xGContext -0.31
100% Scored inContext 0%
100% Clean sheetsContext 0%
7.00 ShotsContext 6.50
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
43% On target shareContext 0%
3.50 Shots in the boxContext 2.50
48% Box shareContext 38%
21% ConversionContext 0%
— OffsidesContext —
16.00 Shots allowedContext 14.00
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
6.50 BlocksContext 2.00
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
100% Save rateContext 50%
30% PossessionIn forecast 33%
264 PassesContext 291
181 Accurate passesContext 229
69% Pass accuracyContext 79%
7.15 Team ratingContext 6.28
9.00 FoulsContext 14.00
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.23
1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
+0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.37
80% Scored inContext 60%
50% Clean sheetsContext 20%
11.10 ShotsContext 11.60
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.25
36% On target shareContext 36%
6.78 Shots in the boxContext 7.10
57% Box shareContext 58%
11% ConversionContext 14%
2.14 OffsidesContext 1.57
12.90 Shots allowedContext 11.80
3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20
3.90 BlocksContext 3.50
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80
77% Save rateContext 67%
40% PossessionIn forecast 48%
285 PassesContext 390
192 Accurate passesContext 330
67% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.93 Team ratingContext 6.77
9.50 FoulsContext 11.50
10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Hull City
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km337 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 81 · 6 pts vs 2.0 for an average club · +4.5 vs expected
  • W29 AugA · Coventry1–00.9 xPts
  • W22 AugH · Manchester United2–00.6 xPts
Aston Villa
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel175 km439 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 0 pts vs 1.3 for an average club · -2.4 vs expected
  • L31 AugH · Arsenal0–11.0 xPts
  • L23 AugA · Brighton0–41.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Hull City Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.1Premier League 2026-2027, 29 Aug4.9Premier League 2026-2027, 31 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km175 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways337 km439 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 21 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one6.93

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Hull City Confirmed XI
5-4-1
19K. Tzolakis(G)
3R. Giles 32N. Mendy 15J. Egan 6S. Ajayi 2L. Coyle
21E. Stroud 29L. Gourna-Douath 27R. Slater 10M. Belloumi
9O. McBurnie
+8 more reported missing outside this XI
Aston Villa Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1Z. Suzuki(G)
22I. Maatsen 5T. Mings 3V. Lindelöf 2M. Cash
6R. Barkley 8B. Kamara
53George Hemmings 10E. Buendía 7J. McGinn
11N. Jackson
+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Hull City Absences are shown before kick-off
Aston Villa Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Hull City-0.1 pp
  • Draw-0.1 pp
  • Aston Villa+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Hull City · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.00
Aston Villa · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
4.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Hull CityAston VillaForecast
Scored per game 1.500.00
Conceded per game 0.002.50
Match goals 1.502.50 2.75
Over 1.5 50%50%
Over 2.5 0%50% 52%
Over 3.5 0%50%
Both teams scored 0%0% 52%
Clean sheets 100%0%
Failed to score 0%100%
Games22
Hull CityAston VillaForecast
Scored per game 1.501.60
Conceded per game 0.001.40
Match goals 1.503.00 2.75
Over 1.5 50%70%
Over 2.5 0%70% 52%
Over 3.5 0%40%
Both teams scored 0%40% 52%
Clean sheets 100%20%
Failed to score 0%40%
Games210

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Hull CityAston VillaLeague
Corners
Corners won1.502.00
Corners conceded6.004.50
Match total7.506.509.35
Over 8.50% 0/20% 0/2
Over 9.50% 0/20% 0/2
Over 10.50% 0/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards3.003.50
Opponent cards1.001.50
Match total4.005.003.92
Over 3.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 4.550% 1/250% 1/2
Hull CityAston VillaLeague
Corners
Corners won4.225.10
Corners conceded6.334.40
Match total10.559.509.35
Over 8.544% 4/960% 6/10
Over 9.544% 4/950% 5/10
Over 10.544% 4/930% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.601.90
Opponent cards1.801.60
Match total4.403.503.92
Over 3.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 4.550% 5/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.74league 3.78
Red cards0.13league 0.04
Cards 5+35%league 33%
Fouls22.5league 23.7
Penalties0.21league 0.19
Home wins45%league 41%
Hull City

No previous matches with this referee.

Aston Villa13 with this referee
Record7-1-5 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1
  • L25 Apr 26A · Fulham0–12
  • D21 Feb 26H · Leeds1–11
  • W21 Dec 25H · Manchester United2–11
  • W26 Oct 25H · Manchester City1–01
  • W22 Feb 25H · Chelsea2–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Hull City2 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Aston Villa1 games · scored 0 · conceded 4
1 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Hull City10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
1 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 31-45
2 46-60
3 1 61-75
2 3 76-90
Aston Villa9 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
3 0-15
4 16-30
5 2 31-45
5 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
4 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Ipswich Liverpool 02 Newcastle Bournemouth 22 Fulham Crystal Palace 23 Manchester City Coventry 10 Brighton Leeds 11 Brentford Sunderland 11 Nottingham Forest Tottenham 00 Hull City Aston Villa 00 Everton Manchester United 22 Arsenal Chelsea 21