Inter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were clear favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 19). Absences weigh more on Cremonese. Inter had 6.9 days of rest, Cremonese 7.1 and had to travel 75 km.
Away travel75 kmRest days6.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Inter86%
Draw11%
Cremonese4%
Inter86%
Draw10%
Cremonese4%
Inter85%
Draw11%
Cremonese4%
Inter81%
Draw14%
Cremonese6%
Inter87%
Draw10%
Cremonese4%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 39%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyErmanno Feliciani
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 29
Team strength
Inter
Cremonese
85
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
91
AttackIn forecast
16
73
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
InterCremonese
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.76
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
0.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.84
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
100%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
18.20
ShotsContext
6.40
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
31%
On target shareContext
44%
13.00
Shots in the boxContext
4.25
72%
Box shareContext
59%
14%
ConversionContext
19%
2.20
OffsidesContext
3.00
9.80
Shots allowedContext
15.80
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.20
BlocksContext
4.60
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.80
79%
Save rateContext
86%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
514
PassesContext
375
454
Accurate passesContext
302
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.81
13.80
FoulsContext
12.40
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.53
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
90%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.40
ShotsContext
8.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
33%
On target shareContext
39%
11.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.63
74%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
16%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.29
11.10
Shots allowedContext
16.30
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
3.20
BlocksContext
4.20
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
69%
Save rateContext
74%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
506
PassesContext
362
441
Accurate passesContext
289
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.90
FoulsContext
10.50
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Inter
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,386 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cremonese
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel75 km210 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Inter |
Cremonese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 75 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,386 km | 210 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 16.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
95A. Bastoni
6S. de Vrij
25M. Akanji
32F. Dimarco
22H. Mkhitaryan
23N. Barella
16D. Frattesi
2D. Dumfries
10L. Martínez
14A. Bonny
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
16M. Silvestri(G)
3G. Pezzella
15M. Bianchetti
6F. Baschirotto
23F. Ceccherini
22R. Floriani Mussolini
38W. Bondo
33A. Grassi
20F. Vázquez
11D. Johnsen
99A. Sanabria
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Inter
Scores -0.05 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cremonese
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.12 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Inter+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Cremonese-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Inter · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Cremonese · Away
1.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Inter | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | W 2–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Inter wins0 draws0 Cremonese wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 28 Jan 2023Cremonese1–2Inter
- 30 Aug 2022Inter3–1Cremonese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Inter | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.00 | 3.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 39% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Inter | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.00 | 3.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 39% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Inter | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.60 | 2.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 8.20 | 9.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 4.20 | 3.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Inter | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.44 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.11 | 6.56 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 9.56 | 9.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ermanno Feliciani Italy · 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.07league 3.64
Red cards0.03league 0.13
Cards 5+17%league 38%
Fouls22.9league 26.0
Penalties0.24league 0.26
Home wins55%league 38%
Inter2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W19 Jan 25H · Empoli3–10
- D17 Aug 24A · Genoa2–22
CremoneseNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Inter5 games · scored 13 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Cremonese5 games · scored 6 · conceded 4
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 22 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
