Inter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were slight favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 73). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Juventus. Inter had 6.1 days of rest, Juventus 6 and had to travel 125 km.
Away travel125 kmRest days6.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Inter53%
Draw26%
Juventus22%
Inter57%
Draw24%
Juventus19%
Inter54%
Draw25%
Juventus21%
Inter45%
Draw27%
Juventus27%
Inter53%
Draw25%
Juventus22%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFederico La Penna
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 46
Team strength
Inter
Juventus
87
L90 StrengthIn forecast
73
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
91
AttackIn forecast
57
73
DefenceIn forecast
76
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisJuventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
InterJuventus
2.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.71
0.79
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.83
1.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
0.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
96%
Scored inContext
79%
54%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
18.00
ShotsContext
16.25
6.08
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.96
34%
On target shareContext
37%
12.67
Shots in the boxContext
10.17
71%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.05
8.25
Shots allowedContext
9.63
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.70
2.95
BlocksContext
2.91
2.26
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.10
77%
Save rateContext
75%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
530
PassesContext
524
463
Accurate passesContext
456
87%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.93
13.63
FoulsContext
12.92
11.71
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.42
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.94
xGVia Att/Def
2.00
0.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.63
+0.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
100%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
18.70
ShotsContext
16.60
6.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
35%
On target shareContext
38%
14.10
Shots in the boxContext
11.56
76%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
8.00
Shots allowedContext
8.70
2.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.22
3.00
BlocksContext
3.38
1.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.43
59%
Save rateContext
100%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
537
PassesContext
551
470
Accurate passesContext
481
88%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.96
12.40
FoulsContext
13.30
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Inter
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km433 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Juventus
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel125 km420 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Inter |
Juventus |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 125 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 433 km | 420 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
95A. Bastoni
25M. Akanji
31Y. Bisseck
32F. Dimarco
8P. Sučić
7P. Zieliński
23N. Barella
11L. de Lima
9M. Thuram
10L. Martínez
Juventus
Confirmed XI
16M. Di Gregorio(G)
27A. Cambiaso
6L. Kelly
3Bremer
15P. Kalulu
21F. Miretti
5M. Locatelli
22W. McKennie
10K. Yıldız
30J. David
7Francisco Conceição
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Inter
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Juventus
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Inter-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Juventus+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Inter · Home
2.33points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-1-2
- Scored
- 2.75
- Conceded
- 0.83
Juventus · Away
1.67points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-4
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Inter | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | W 5–0 AW 2–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Cremonese | W 2–0 AW 4–1 H | W 5–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Pisa | W 6–2 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Udinese | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Lecce | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Napoli | D 2–2 HL 1–3 A | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Parma | W 2–0 A | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Bologna | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Atalanta | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Genoa | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Como | W 4–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Lazio | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Verona | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Fiorentina | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Torino | W 5–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 58 of 69 · 2.52 per game | 43 of 69 · 1.87 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 Inter wins3 draws4 Juventus wins
Goals per game1.22 – 1.56
Over 2.522%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets22% · 33%
- 13 Sep 2025Juventus4–3Inter
- 16 Feb 2025Juventus1–0Inter
- 27 Oct 2024Inter4–4Juventus
- 4 Feb 2024Inter1–0Juventus
- 26 Nov 2023Juventus1–1Inter
- 19 Mar 2023Inter0–1Juventus
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Inter | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.38 | 1.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.79 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 3.17 | 2.54 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 46% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 54% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 4% | 21% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Inter | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.90 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Inter | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.58 | 5.45 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.79 | 3.77 | |
| Match total | 9.37 | 9.22 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 15/24 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 13/24 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 10/24 | 27% 6/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.42 | 1.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 2.21 | |
| Match total | 3.17 | 3.59 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 6/24 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 4/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Inter | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 6.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.90 | 3.11 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 9.89 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 2.60 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Federico La Penna Italy · 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.26league 3.82
Red cards0.11league 0.19
Cards 5+39%league 37%
Fouls26.2league 25.5
Penalties0.28league 0.32
Home wins39%league 38%
Inter5 with this referee
Record4-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W28 Dec 25A · Atalanta1–01
- W25 Aug 25H · Torino5–00
- W11 May 25A · Torino2–03
- W10 Feb 25H · Fiorentina2–14
- D17 Mar 24H · Napoli1–12
Juventus3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L7 Dec 25A · Napoli1–21
- W7 Apr 24H · Fiorentina1–02
- W19 Feb 23A · Spezia2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Inter24 games · scored 57 · conceded 19
9
2
0-15
7
3
16-30
9
4
31-45
8
2
46-60
10
2
61-75
14
6
76-90
Juventus24 games · scored 41 · conceded 20
6
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
5
31-45
6
3
46-60
10
2
61-75
9
5
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 25 · conceded 8
2
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
8
3
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 22 · conceded 5
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
6
1
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
