Inter vs Monza – 22 Aug 2026

Serie A Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 22 · 17:30 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

Inter

4–1Full time

Monza

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Inter were clear favourites.

Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Monza. Inter had 91 days of rest, Monza ? and had to travel 14 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel14 kmRest days91 · ?Matches / 14d0 · 0

Inter88%

Draw8%

Monza4%

Expected goals 3.34 – 0.59

Inter87%

Draw9%

Monza4%

Expected goals 3.18 – 0.56

Inter88%

Draw9%

Monza4%

Expected goals 3.32 – 0.62

Inter83%

Draw11%

Monza5%

Expected goals 2.98 – 0.67

Inter87%

Draw9%

Monza4%

Expected goals 3.22 – 0.58

Over 2.5 75% Both score 43% Likeliest score 3–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Milano)

29°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 6 km/h
Humidity 36%

Warm

Referee · ItalyLivio Marinelli

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 61

Team strength

Inter

Monza

84 L90 StrengthIn forecast 16

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

91 AttackIn forecast 34

73 DefenceIn forecast 26

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Inter

Attack—

Defense risk—

Monza

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Inter

Monza

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 0.77

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

+0.89 Goals minus xGContext -0.27

100% Scored inContext 40%

30% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.60 ShotsContext 9.60

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.56

37% On target shareContext 33%

10.40 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

77% Box shareContext 59%

18% ConversionContext 5%

1.71 OffsidesContext 2.75

11.50 Shots allowedContext 13.90

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.33 BlocksContext 3.30

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

67% Save rateContext 62%

58% PossessionIn forecast 51%

539 PassesContext 441

478 Accurate passesContext 379

89% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.77

11.50 FoulsContext 12.00

9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 15.60

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Inter

Rest91 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Monza

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel14 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Inter	Monza
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	91Serie A 2025-2026, 23 May	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	14 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Inter Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Josep Martínez(G)

95A. Bastoni 25M. Akanji 31Y. Bisseck

32F. Dimarco 7P. Zieliński 20H. Çalhanoğlu 23N. Barella 17A. Diouf

10L. Martínez 94F. Esposito

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Monza Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13S. Pizzignacco(G)

44A. Carboni 3L. Lucchesi 60E. Kouadio

19S. Birindelli 80M. Mout 8F. Ondoa 24A. Bakoune

7Ricardo Mangas 9Gustavo Varela 28A. Colpani

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Inter Absences are shown before kick-off

Monza Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Inter+0.6 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Monza-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Inter · Home No home games yet this season.

Monza · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Inter wins2 draws1 Monza wins

Goals per game2.17 – 1.17 Over 2.550% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 17%

8 Mar 2025Inter3–2Monza
15 Sep 2024Monza1–1Inter
13 Jan 2024Monza1–5Inter
19 Aug 2023Inter2–0Monza
15 Apr 2023Inter0–1Monza
7 Jan 2023Monza2–2Inter

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Inter	Monza	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.93
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	75%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	43%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Inter	Monza	Forecast
Scored per game	2.50	—
Conceded per game	1.30	—
Match goals	3.80	—	3.93
Over 1.5	100%	—
Over 2.5	60%	—	75%
Over 3.5	40%	—
Both teams scored	70%	—	43%
Clean sheets	30%	—
Failed to score	0%	—
Games	10	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Inter	Monza
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Inter	Monza
Corners
Corners won	4.70	4.13
Corners conceded	3.30	4.38
Match total	8.00	8.51
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	13% 1/8
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.90
Opponent cards	1.70	2.20
Match total	3.50	4.10
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Livio Marinelli Italy · 61 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.62

Red cards0.21

Cards 5+41%

Fouls23.8

Penalties0.31

Home wins43%

Inter8 with this referee

Record6-0-2 Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.1 Pens for · against3 · 1 Reds1

W21 Sep 25H · Sassuolo2–12
W26 Jan 25A · Lecce4–02
L21 May 23A · Napoli1–32
W23 Apr 23A · Empoli3–01
L10 Mar 23A · Spezia1–20

Monza4 with this referee

Record0-1-3 Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds2

L18 May 25H · Empoli1–30
D17 Sep 23H · Lecce1–16
L26 Feb 23A · Salernitana0–34
L22 Oct 22A · AC Milan1–41

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.