Inter
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Inter88.0%fair odds 1.14
Draw8.7%fair odds 11.55
Monza3.3%fair odds 30.06
Expected goals3.34 – 0.59total 3.93
Likeliest score3–012.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Monza
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Inter ↓ · Monza → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Inter goals, columns Monza goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 3–012.2%8.22
- 2–010.9%9.16
- 4–010.2%9.85
- 3–17.2%13.85
- 5–06.8%14.74
- 2–16.5%15.42
- 1–06.3%15.79
- 4–16.0%16.58
- 1–14.1%24.45
- 5–14.0%24.82
Winning margin
52.5%
Inter by 3+
fair 1.91
20.2%
Inter by 2
fair 4.95
15.4%
Inter by 1
fair 6.51
8.7%
Draw
fair 11.55
2.6%
Monza by 1
fair 39.04
0.6%
Monza by 2
fair 156.61
0.1%
Monza by 3+
fair 790.04
Goal distribution
Total goals
2%0
7%1
15%2
20%3
20%4
36%5+
Inter goals
4%0
12%1
20%2
22%3
43%4+
Monza goals
55%0
33%1
10%2
2%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter win | 88.0% | 87.1% | +0.9 pp |
| Draw | 8.7% | 9.3% | -0.7 pp |
| Monza win | 3.3% | 3.6% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 75.2% | 73.1% | +2.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 43.4% | 42.6% | +0.8 pp |
| Expected goals Inter | 3.34 | 3.22 | +0.12 |
| Expected goals Monza | 0.59 | 0.58 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Inter win88.0%1.14
- Draw8.7%11.55
- Monza win3.3%30.06
- Double chance Inter or draw96.7%1.03
- Double chance Inter or Monza91.3%1.09
- Double chance Monza or draw12.0%8.34
- Draw no bet Inter96.4%1.04
- Draw no bet Monza3.6%27.46
Goals
- Over 0.597.8%1.02
- Over 1.590.5%1.10
- Over 2.575.2%1.33
- Over 3.555.3%1.81
- Over 4.535.8%2.79
- Under 1.59.5%10.58
- Under 2.524.8%4.03
- Under 3.544.7%2.24
Both teams to score
- Yes43.4%2.30
- No56.6%1.77
- Yes and over 2.539.3%2.54
- Inter win and yes35.0%2.86
- Draw and yes6.5%15.39
- Monza win and yes1.9%51.42
Team goals
- Inter over 0.596.5%1.04
- Inter over 1.584.6%1.18
- Inter over 2.564.8%1.54
- Monza over 0.544.8%2.23
- Monza over 1.512.0%8.34
- Monza over 2.52.3%44.39
- Inter clean sheet55.2%1.81
- Monza clean sheet3.5%28.20
- Inter win to nil53.0%1.89
- Monza win to nil1.4%72.35
Handicap
- Inter −1.572.7%1.38
- Inter −2.552.5%1.91
- Monza +1.527.3%3.66
- Monza +2.547.5%2.10
- Monza −1.50.8%130.70
- Inter +1.599.2%1.01
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2026-2027
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.