Inter vs Napoli – 11 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 20 Sun, Jan 11 · 19:45 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

Inter 1st · 42 pts · 18 played WWWWW

2–2Full time

Napoli 4th · 38 pts · 18 played WLWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Inter were slight favourites.

Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 72). Inter had 4 days of rest, Napoli 4.1 and had to travel 658 km.

Away travel658 kmRest days4 · 4.1Matches / 14d3 · 2

Inter56%

Draw25%

Napoli20%

Expected goals 1.74 – 0.95

Inter56%

Draw24%

Napoli20%

Expected goals 1.81 – 0.99

Inter56%

Draw25%

Napoli20%

Expected goals 1.74 – 0.95

Inter48%

Draw27%

Napoli25%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.06

Inter56%

Draw24%

Napoli20%

Expected goals 1.81 – 0.99

Over 2.5 50% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Milano)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 75

Team strength

Inter

Napoli

86 L90 StrengthIn forecast 72

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 61

91 AttackIn forecast 61

73 DefenceIn forecast 70

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Inter

Attack—

Defense risk—

Napoli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Inter

Napoli

2.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.56

0.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.83

1.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.41

0.84 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.02

+0.37 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

94% Scored inContext 78%

50% Clean sheetsContext 39%

17.61 ShotsContext 13.11

5.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.06

33% On target shareContext 36%

12.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.56

69% Box shareContext 64%

13% ConversionContext 12%

2.06 OffsidesContext 1.82

8.44 Shots allowedContext 10.33

3.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.71

2.86 BlocksContext 2.94

2.69 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.07

81% Save rateContext 71%

60% PossessionIn forecast 57%

524 PassesContext 524

457 Accurate passesContext 452

87% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.88

14.61 FoulsContext 11.78

11.28 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

1.61 Yellow cardsContext 1.39

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.47

0.89 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.89

+0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

80% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

15.60 ShotsContext 11.20

5.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44

36% On target shareContext 36%

10.40 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

68% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.75

8.70 Shots allowedContext 9.90

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.22

2.43 BlocksContext 2.89

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

82% Save rateContext 71%

56% PossessionIn forecast 56%

516 PassesContext 520

448 Accurate passesContext 445

87% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.85

15.30 FoulsContext 11.80

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Inter

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km322 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Napoli

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel658 km373 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Inter	Napoli
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Jan	4.1Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	658 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	322 km	373 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Inter Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Y. Sommer(G)

95A. Bastoni 25M. Akanji 31Y. Bisseck

32F. Dimarco 7P. Zieliński 20H. Çalhanoğlu 23N. Barella 11L. de Lima

10L. Martínez 9M. Thuram

Napoli Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

32V. Milinković-Savić(G)

5Juan Jesus 13A. Rrahmani 31S. Beukema

37L. Spinazzola 8S. McTominay 68S. Lobotka 22G. Di Lorenzo

20E. Elmas 21M. Politano

19R. Højlund

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Inter Absences are shown before kick-off

Napoli Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Inter+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Napoli+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Inter · Home 2.33points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 7-0-2
Scored: 2.67
Conceded: 0.67

Napoli · Away 1.80points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 6-0-4
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 0.70

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Inter	Napoli
Bologna	W 3–1 H	L 0–2 A
Atalanta	W 1–0 A	W 3–1 H
Genoa	W 2–1 A	W 2–1 H
Como	W 4–0 H	D 0–0 H
Pisa	W 2–0 A	W 3–2 H
AC Milan	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 A
Lazio	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 A
Verona	W 2–1 A	D 2–2 H
Fiorentina	W 3–0 H	W 3–1 A
AS Roma	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 A
Cremonese	W 4–1 H	W 2–0 A
Cagliari	W 2–0 A	W 1–0 H
Sassuolo	W 2–1 H	W 2–0 A
Juventus	L 3–4 A	W 2–1 H
Udinese	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 A
Torino	W 5–0 H	L 0–1 A
Points	39 of 48 · 2.44 per game	32 of 48 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 Inter wins4 draws2 Napoli wins

Goals per game1.44 – 1.33 Over 2.544% Both scored78% Clean sheets22% · 0%

25 Oct 2025Napoli3–1Inter
1 Mar 2025Napoli1–1Inter
10 Nov 2024Inter1–1Napoli
17 Mar 2024Inter1–1Napoli
3 Dec 2023Napoli0–3Inter
21 May 2023Napoli3–1Inter

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Inter	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	2.22	1.56
Conceded per game	0.83	0.83
Match goals	3.06	2.39	2.69
Over 1.5	83%	67%
Over 2.5	61%	44%	50%
Over 3.5	33%	28%
Both teams scored	44%	44%	51%
Clean sheets	50%	39%
Failed to score	6%	22%
Games	18	18

	Inter	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	1.30
Conceded per game	0.40	0.70
Match goals	2.50	2.00	2.69
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	50%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	30%	51%
Clean sheets	60%	50%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Inter	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	6.67	5.13
Corners conceded	2.83	2.88
Match total	9.50	8.01	8.79
Over 8.5	67% 12/18	31% 5/16
Over 9.5	56% 10/18	25% 4/16
Over 10.5	39% 7/18	25% 4/16
Cards
Cards	1.61	1.44
Opponent cards	1.67	2.11
Match total	3.28	3.55	4.04
Over 3.5	28% 5/18	44% 8/18
Over 4.5	17% 3/18	17% 3/18

	Inter	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	5.33
Corners conceded	2.60	2.56
Match total	8.40	7.89	8.79
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.70
Opponent cards	1.70	2.30
Match total	3.70	4.00	4.04
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 75 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.36league 3.89

Red cards0.20league 0.18

Cards 5+28%league 38%

Fouls24.8league 25.8

Penalties0.21league 0.31

Home wins24%league 37%

Inter13 with this referee

Record5-5-3 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.1 Pens for · against2 · 1

W14 Dec 25A · Genoa2–13
W2 Nov 25A · Verona2–11
D5 Apr 25A · Parma2–23
D1 Mar 25A · Napoli1–10
L6 Feb 25A · Fiorentina0–30

Napoli10 with this referee

Record4-4-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.9 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

D18 May 25A · Parma0–04
D1 Mar 25H · Inter1–11
W14 Dec 24A · Udinese3–11
L3 Nov 24H · Atalanta0–31
D21 Sep 24A · Juventus0–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.