Inter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were clear favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 20). Inter had 8.1 days of rest, Sassuolo 7.1 and had to travel 142 km.
Away travel142 kmRest days8.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Inter83%
Draw12%
Sassuolo5%
Inter85%
Draw11%
Sassuolo4%
Inter83%
Draw12%
Sassuolo5%
Inter78%
Draw15%
Sassuolo7%
Inter84%
Draw11%
Sassuolo5%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 40%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyLivio Marinelli
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 54
Team strength
Inter
Sassuolo
84
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
91
AttackIn forecast
41
73
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
InterSassuolo
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.77
+1.59
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
100%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
17.00
ShotsContext
8.67
5.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
33%
On target shareContext
42%
11.33
Shots in the boxContext
5.67
69%
Box shareContext
63%
18%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
—
11.33
Shots allowedContext
12.33
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.67
BlocksContext
4.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
78%
Save rateContext
62%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
521
PassesContext
422
465
Accurate passesContext
358
89%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.68
13.33
FoulsContext
16.00
8.33
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
0.67
Yellow cardsContext
3.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.77
+0.75
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
90%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.80
ShotsContext
8.60
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
38%
On target shareContext
35%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
73%
Box shareContext
61%
17%
ConversionContext
12%
2.90
OffsidesContext
1.33
13.80
Shots allowedContext
13.90
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.00
BlocksContext
4.00
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
71%
Save rateContext
58%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
507
PassesContext
346
441
Accurate passesContext
267
87%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.73
11.30
FoulsContext
12.40
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Inter
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km251 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sassuolo
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel142 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Inter |
Sassuolo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Serie A 2025-2026, 13 Sep | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 142 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 251 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Inter
Confirmed XI
13Josep Martínez(G)
30Carlos Augusto
15F. Acerbi
25M. Akanji
32F. Dimarco
8P. Sučić
20H. Çalhanoğlu
23N. Barella
2D. Dumfries
9M. Thuram
94F. Esposito
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
3J. Doig
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
25W. Coulibaly
90I. Koné
18N. Matić
40A. Vranckx
45A. Laurienté
99A. Pinamonti
10D. Berardi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Inter
Scores -0.07 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sassuolo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Inter-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Sassuolo+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Inter · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Sassuolo · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Inter wins0 draws3 Sassuolo wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 4 May 2024Sassuolo1–0Inter
- 27 Sep 2023Inter1–2Sassuolo
- 13 May 2023Inter4–2Sassuolo
- 8 Oct 2022Sassuolo1–2Inter
- 20 Feb 2022Inter0–2Sassuolo
- 2 Oct 2021Sassuolo1–2Inter
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Inter | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 2.67 | 3.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Inter | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 2.67 | 3.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Inter | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.00 | 2.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 13.00 | 7.34 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 3/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.67 | 3.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.34 | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Inter | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.90 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 9.10 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.20 | 3.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Livio Marinelli Italy · 54 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.59league 3.53
Red cards0.19league 0.11
Cards 5+41%league 37%
Fouls23.4league 26.0
Penalties0.31league 0.21
Home wins41%league 37%
Inter7 with this referee
Record5-0-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.1
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds1
- W26 Jan 25A · Lecce4–02
- L21 May 23A · Napoli1–32
- W23 Apr 23A · Empoli3–01
- L10 Mar 23A · Spezia1–20
- W9 Apr 22H · Verona2–02
Sassuolo1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L30 Dec 23A · AC Milan0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Inter3 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Sassuolo3 games · scored 3 · conceded 5
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 22 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 10 · conceded 21
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
5
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
