Inter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were clear favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 40). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Udinese. Inter had 6 days of rest, Udinese 7 and had to travel 321 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel321 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Inter77%
Draw14%
Udinese9%
Inter74%
Draw16%
Udinese10%
Inter76%
Draw14%
Udinese9%
Inter70%
Draw17%
Udinese13%
Inter75%
Draw15%
Udinese10%
Over 2.5 71%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
24°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 6 km/h
- Humidity 69%
RefereeLuca Pairetto
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 74
Team strength
Inter
Udinese
84
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
91
AttackIn forecast
22
73
DefenceIn forecast
18
78
Form indexContext
44
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUdinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
InterUdinese
2.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
2.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
0.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
100%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
24.00
ShotsContext
13.00
6.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
28%
On target shareContext
36%
18.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
75%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
11.00
Shots allowedContext
17.67
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
2.67
BlocksContext
5.33
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
80%
Save rateContext
72%
66%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
643
PassesContext
394
577
Accurate passesContext
315
90%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.25
Team ratingContext
6.91
5.67
FoulsContext
12.67
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.67
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
2.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
100%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
17.80
ShotsContext
12.50
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
32%
On target shareContext
38%
13.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
75%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.29
10.80
Shots allowedContext
14.80
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.00
BlocksContext
4.40
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
74%
Save rateContext
71%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
596
PassesContext
407
539
Accurate passesContext
340
91%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.94
9.20
FoulsContext
12.30
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Inter
WWWL
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,376 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Inter |
Udinese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 8 Sep | 7Serie A 2026-2027, 7 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 321 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,376 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Josep Martínez(G)
95A. Bastoni
6J. Stones
25M. Akanji
30Carlos Augusto
22H. Mkhitaryan
7P. Zieliński
23N. Barella
17A. Diouf
94F. Esposito
9M. Thuram
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
77E. Ebosse
27C. Kabasele
14J. Abankwah
11H. Kamara
38L. Miller
8J. Karlström
23M. Vojvoda
32J. Ekkelenkamp
46Unai Gómez
9K. Davis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Inter
Absences are shown before kick-off
Udinese
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Inter+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Udinese+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Inter · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Udinese · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Inter | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Monza | W 4–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
8 Inter wins0 draws2 Udinese wins
Goals per game2.10 – 1.10
Over 2.580%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets30% · 0%
- 17 Jan 2026Udinese0–1Inter
- 31 Aug 2025Inter1–2Udinese
- 30 Mar 2025Inter2–1Udinese
- 28 Sep 2024Udinese2–3Inter
- 8 Apr 2024Udinese1–2Inter
- 9 Dec 2023Inter4–0Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Inter | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.67 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 3.33 | 3.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Inter | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.60 | 3.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Inter | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 11.66 | 9.00 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 0.67 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 3.34 | 3.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Inter | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.10 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 3.10 | 3.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Pairetto 74 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.46league 3.10
Red cards0.26league 0.03
Cards 5+51%league 18%
Fouls25.3league 22.4
Penalties0.41league 0.05
Home wins38%league 41%
Inter6 with this referee
Record3-2-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D15 Jan 25H · Bologna2–20
- D15 Sep 24A · Monza1–12
- W9 Mar 24A · Bologna1–01
- L15 Apr 23H · Monza0–12
- W9 Jan 22H · Lazio2–11
Udinese5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W2 Mar 26H · Fiorentina3–01
- L25 Apr 24H · AS Roma1–23
- D14 Jan 24A · Fiorentina2–21
- L21 May 23H · Lazio0–13
- D30 Jan 23H · Verona1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Inter3 games · scored 8 · conceded 3
2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Udinese3 games · scored 5 · conceded 5
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 23 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
6
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
7
2
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
