Inter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were clear favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Verona. Inter had 7.9 days of rest, Verona 7.1 and had to travel 141 km.
Away travel141 kmRest days7.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Inter77%
Draw16%
Verona7%
Inter88%
Draw9%
Verona3%
Inter77%
Draw17%
Verona7%
Inter71%
Draw20%
Verona9%
Inter78%
Draw15%
Verona7%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 38%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Milano)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAndrea Calzavara
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 2
Team strength
Inter
Verona
85
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
91
AttackIn forecast
15
73
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVerona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
InterVerona
2.36
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
0.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.61
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.59
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
94%
Scored inContext
47%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
16.92
ShotsContext
10.83
5.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.69
35%
On target shareContext
33%
12.06
Shots in the boxContext
6.06
72%
Box shareContext
55%
14%
ConversionContext
6%
1.91
OffsidesContext
2.17
8.83
Shots allowedContext
13.08
3.32
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
2.90
BlocksContext
4.14
2.48
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
75%
Save rateContext
62%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
536
PassesContext
326
471
Accurate passesContext
246
88%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.67
12.92
FoulsContext
15.58
10.64
Fouls sufferedContext
9.25
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.31
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
+0.88
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
90%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.20
ShotsContext
11.70
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
36%
On target shareContext
27%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
76%
Box shareContext
49%
17%
ConversionContext
4%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.70
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
72%
Save rateContext
61%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
541
PassesContext
314
481
Accurate passesContext
240
89%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.70
FoulsContext
16.20
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Inter
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km957 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Verona
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel141 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Inter |
Verona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 9 May | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 141 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 957 km | 524 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
15F. Acerbi
6S. de Vrij
36M. Darmian
30Carlos Augusto
22H. Mkhitaryan
8P. Sučić
17A. Diouf
11L. de Lima
10L. Martínez
14A. Bonny
Verona
Confirmed XI
1L. Montipò(G)
3M. Frese
6N. Valentini
5A. Edmundsson
15V. Nelsson
7R. Belghali
24A. Bernede
63R. Gagliardini
4S. Lovrić
18K. Bowie
10T. Suslov
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Inter
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Verona
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Inter+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Verona-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Inter · Home
2.44points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 14-2-2
- Scored
- 2.72
- Conceded
- 0.83
Verona · Away
0.67points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-6-10
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.78
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Inter | Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Lazio | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Parma | W 2–0 HW 2–0 A | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Torino | D 2–2 AW 5–0 H | L 1–2 AL 0–3 H |
| Cagliari | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A | L 0–4 AD 2–2 H |
| Como | W 4–3 AW 4–0 H | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| AS Roma | W 5–2 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Fiorentina | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Genoa | W 2–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Lecce | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Juventus | W 3–2 HL 3–4 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Sassuolo | W 5–0 AW 2–1 H | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Cremonese | W 2–0 AW 4–1 H | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Pisa | W 6–2 HW 2–0 A | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Udinese | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | L 1–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Napoli | D 2–2 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Bologna | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Points | 82 of 105 · 2.34 per game | 20 of 105 · 0.57 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
8 Inter wins1 draws0 Verona wins
Goals per game2.67 – 0.56
Over 2.567%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets56% · 0%
- 2 Nov 2025Verona1–2Inter
- 3 May 2025Inter1–0Verona
- 23 Nov 2024Verona0–5Inter
- 26 May 2024Verona2–2Inter
- 6 Jan 2024Inter2–1Verona
- 3 May 2023Verona0–6Inter
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Inter | Verona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.36 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 1.61 | |
| Match goals | 3.22 | 2.28 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 53% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 47% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 6% | 53% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| Inter | Verona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 1.70 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Inter | Verona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.03 | 3.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.86 | 4.69 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 8.55 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 21/36 | 54% 19/35 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 18/36 | 31% 11/35 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 15/36 | 23% 8/35 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.42 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.69 | |
| Match total | 3.42 | 4.11 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 12/36 | 56% 20/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 19% 7/36 | 42% 15/36 | |
| Inter | Verona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.30 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 7.80 | 8.50 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.80 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andrea Calzavara Italy · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 3.69
Red cards0.00league 0.19
Cards 5+0%league 35%
Fouls27.0league 24.7
Penalties0.50league 0.28
Home wins50%league 39%
InterNo previous matches with this referee.
VeronaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Inter36 games · scored 85 · conceded 31
12
2
0-15
10
4
16-30
14
8
31-45
14
2
46-60
15
4
61-75
20
11
76-90
Verona36 games · scored 24 · conceded 58
1
8
0-15
7
6
16-30
7
10
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
9
61-75
1
18
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 23 · conceded 10
3
0-15
2
16-30
5
4
31-45
6
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Verona10 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
2
0-15
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
