Ipswich
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Liverpool were slight favourites.
Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 47). Ipswich had 5.1 days of rest, Liverpool 6.3 and had to travel 316 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel316 kmRest days5.1 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Ipswich22%
Draw20%
Liverpool58%
Ipswich22%
Draw24%
Liverpool54%
Ipswich22%
Draw20%
Liverpool58%
Ipswich16%
Draw17%
Liverpool67%
Ipswich22%
Draw20%
Liverpool57%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 66%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ipswich, Suffolk)
18°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 14 km/h
- Humidity 58%
RefereeDarren England
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 123
Team strength
Ipswich
Liverpool
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
49
Current StrengthIn forecast
84
59
AttackIn forecast
85
50
DefenceIn forecast
84
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLiverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
IpswichLiverpool
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
3.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
2.37
2.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.94
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.50
ShotsContext
20.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
42%
On target shareContext
28%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
73%
Box shareContext
60%
21%
ConversionContext
10%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
22.00
Shots allowedContext
12.50
7.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
8.00
BlocksContext
5.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
53%
Save rateContext
57%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
65%
346
PassesContext
538
281
Accurate passesContext
469
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.00
FoulsContext
14.00
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
3.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.10
ShotsContext
16.30
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
39%
On target shareContext
31%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
10.30
72%
Box shareContext
63%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.44
14.20
Shots allowedContext
12.80
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
5.30
BlocksContext
3.70
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
64%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
392
PassesContext
501
314
Accurate passesContext
426
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.40
FoulsContext
11.50
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ipswich
WL
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km555 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 58 · 3 pts vs 2.1 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ipswich |
Liverpool |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Premier League 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 6.3Premier League 2026-2027, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 316 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 555 km | 390 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ipswich
Confirmed XI
37K. Scherpen(G)
3L. Davis
24J. Greaves
6I. Diop
26D. O'Shea
25E. Palacios
23S. Lukić
38D. Maeda
10J. Enciso
7I. Fatawu
19Emersonn
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez
4V. van Dijk
5J. Jacquet
33R. Araujo
10A. Mac Allister
8D. Szoboszlai
18C. Gakpo
7F. Wirtz
23Víctor Muñoz
9A. Isak
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ipswich
Absences are shown before kick-off
Liverpool
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ipswich-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Liverpool+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Ipswich · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Liverpool · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Ipswich wins0 draws2 Liverpool wins
Goals per game0.50 – 3.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 25 Jan 2025Liverpool4–1Ipswich
- 17 Aug 2024Ipswich0–2Liverpool
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ipswich | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 4.00 | 3.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Ipswich | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 3.50 | 3.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 70% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 90% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ipswich | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.00 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 3.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 7.00 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Ipswich | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 10.20 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.10 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Darren England 123 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.25league 3.75
Red cards0.11league 0.05
Cards 5+42%league 30%
Fouls22.2league 22.8
Penalties0.26league 0.20
Home wins44%league 50%
Ipswich4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L26 Feb 25A · Manchester United2–34
- L27 Dec 24A · Arsenal0–11
- W10 Nov 24A · Tottenham2–15
- W12 Dec 23A · Watford2–14
Liverpool10 with this referee
Record3-4-3
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D24 May 26H · Brentford1–12
- L3 May 26A · Manchester United2–32
- L21 Mar 26A · Brighton1–25
- W30 Nov 25A · West Ham2–00
- W20 Sep 25H · Everton2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ipswich2 games · scored 4 · conceded 6
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Liverpool2 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Ipswich10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
6
3
46-60
5
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
