Istanbul Basaksehir vs Besiktas – 15 Feb 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 22 Sun, Feb 15 · 17:00 Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, İstanbul

Istanbul Basaksehir 6th · 33 pts · 21 played WWWDW

2–3Full time

Besiktas 5th · 37 pts · 21 played WWDWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Istanbul Basaksehir were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Istanbul Basaksehir. Istanbul Basaksehir had 7.2 days of rest, Besiktas 7 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days7.2 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Istanbul Basaksehir44%

Draw25%

Besiktas31%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.36

Istanbul Basaksehir41%

Draw27%

Besiktas32%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.23

Istanbul Basaksehir43%

Draw25%

Besiktas31%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.36

Istanbul Basaksehir36%

Draw26%

Besiktas39%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.53

Istanbul Basaksehir43%

Draw26%

Besiktas31%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.30

Over 2.5 58% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeMehmet Turkmen

Cards per match 3.0
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 13

Team strength

Istanbul Basaksehir

Besiktas

35 L90 StrengthIn forecast 38

36 Current StrengthIn forecast 50

32 AttackIn forecast 60

34 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Istanbul Basaksehir

Attack—

Defense risk—

Besiktas

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Istanbul Basaksehir

Besiktas

1.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.76

1.05 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.93

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

+0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

86% Scored inContext 90%

33% Clean sheetsContext 24%

13.00 ShotsContext 16.10

4.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.38

35% On target shareContext 40%

8.80 Shots in the boxContext 10.57

64% Box shareContext 68%

13% ConversionContext 11%

1.71 OffsidesContext 2.39

12.00 Shots allowedContext 12.05

4.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.85

3.68 BlocksContext 3.05

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.74

78% Save rateContext 69%

55% PossessionIn forecast 55%

437 PassesContext 424

373 Accurate passesContext 351

85% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.88

12.86 FoulsContext 12.71

13.05 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67

2.05 Yellow cardsContext 2.24

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.19

This league season, per match · 21 and 21 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 2.02

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

+0.77 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

100% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.60 ShotsContext 19.20

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.80

38% On target shareContext 41%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.10

68% Box shareContext 60%

16% ConversionContext 10%

1.20 OffsidesContext 2.22

12.00 Shots allowedContext 12.40

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

4.00 BlocksContext 3.40

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

74% Save rateContext 72%

55% PossessionIn forecast 58%

435 PassesContext 454

371 Accurate passesContext 380

85% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.94

13.80 FoulsContext 12.30

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Istanbul Basaksehir

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Besiktas

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Istanbul Basaksehir	Besiktas
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Feb	7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	5.8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Istanbul Basaksehir Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16M. Şengezer(G)

21C. Opéri 3J. Opoku 5Léo Duarte 42Ö. Şahiner

20U. Güneş 8O. Kemen

25A. Harit 14E. Shomurodov 11A. Fayzullaev

9D. Selke

Besiktas Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

30E. Destanoğlu(G)

33R. Yılmaz 35Tiago Djaló 12E. Agbadou 62A. Murillo

23K. Asllani

19E. Touré 10O. Kökçü 15Junior Olaitan 18V. Černý

9H. Oh

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Istanbul Basaksehir Absences are shown before kick-off

Besiktas Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Istanbul Basaksehir+0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Besiktas-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Istanbul Basaksehir · Home 1.40points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 3-5-2
Scored: 1.70
Conceded: 1.30

Besiktas · Away 1.60points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 4-4-2
Scored: 1.80
Conceded: 1.30

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Istanbul Basaksehir	Besiktas
Eyüpspor	W 2–1 AD 0–0 H	D 2–2 AW 2–1 H
Rizespor	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A	W 1–0 H
Kayserispor	W 3–0 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 HW 4–0 A
Fatih Karagümrük	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A	W 2–0 A
Gazişehir Gaziantep	W 5–1 H	D 2–2 H
Samsunspor	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 H
Fenerbahce	D 1–1 H	L 2–3 H
Kasimpasa	W 3–1 A	D 1–1 A
Trabzonspor	L 3–4 H	D 3–3 A
Genclerbirligi	L 1–2 A	L 1–2 H
Kocaelispor	W 1–0 H	W 3–1 H
Antalyaspor	W 4–0 A	W 3–1 A
Galatasaray	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 A
Goztepe	L 0–1 A	L 0–3 A
Konyaspor	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A
Alanyaspor	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 HL 0–2 A
Points	33 of 60 · 1.65 per game	34 of 60 · 1.70 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Istanbul Basaksehir wins2 draws2 Besiktas wins

Goals per game0.80 – 0.80 Over 2.520% Both scored40% Clean sheets40% · 40%

13 Sep 2025Besiktas2–1Istanbul Basaksehir
12 Apr 2025Besiktas0–2Istanbul Basaksehir
10 Nov 2024Istanbul Basaksehir0–0Besiktas
4 Apr 2024Istanbul Basaksehir1–1Besiktas
12 Nov 2023Besiktas1–0Istanbul Basaksehir

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Istanbul Basaksehir	Besiktas	Forecast
Scored per game	1.71	1.76
Conceded per game	1.05	1.29
Match goals	2.76	3.05	3.01
Over 1.5	81%	90%
Over 2.5	57%	62%	58%
Over 3.5	24%	38%
Both teams scored	62%	67%	61%
Clean sheets	33%	24%
Failed to score	14%	10%
Games	21	21

	Istanbul Basaksehir	Besiktas	Forecast
Scored per game	2.40	1.90
Conceded per game	1.30	1.20
Match goals	3.70	3.10	3.01
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	58%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	80%	70%	61%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Istanbul Basaksehir	Besiktas	League
Corners
Corners won	4.95	5.50
Corners conceded	5.30	4.40
Match total	10.25	9.90	9.40
Over 8.5	70% 14/20	65% 13/20
Over 9.5	60% 12/20	50% 10/20
Over 10.5	55% 11/20	35% 7/20
Cards
Cards	2.19	2.43
Opponent cards	2.52	3.00
Match total	4.71	5.43	4.70
Over 3.5	71% 15/21	86% 18/21
Over 4.5	52% 11/21	57% 12/21

	Istanbul Basaksehir	Besiktas	League
Corners
Corners won	4.22	5.50
Corners conceded	6.11	3.20
Match total	10.33	8.70	9.40
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.40
Opponent cards	2.00	3.50
Match total	4.00	5.90	4.70
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mehmet Turkmen Türkiye · 13 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.92league 4.45

Red cards0.08league 0.23

Cards 5+23%league 47%

Fouls23.5league 26.0

Penalties0.15league 0.27

Home wins54%league 37%

Istanbul Basaksehir

No previous matches with this referee.

Besiktas2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L19 Sep 25A · Goztepe0–31
D18 May 25A · Alanyaspor1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.