Istanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Istanbul Basaksehir
6th · 44 pts · 28 played
WWLDD
3–0Full time
Genclerbirligi
15th · 25 pts · 28 played
DDLLL
Our take
Istanbul Basaksehir were clear favourites.
Istanbul Basaksehir were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Istanbul Basaksehir. Istanbul Basaksehir had 4.8 days of rest, Genclerbirligi 7 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days4.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Istanbul Basaksehir66%
Draw21%
Genclerbirligi13%
Istanbul Basaksehir64%
Draw21%
Genclerbirligi15%
Istanbul Basaksehir64%
Draw22%
Genclerbirligi14%
Istanbul Basaksehir59%
Draw24%
Genclerbirligi17%
Istanbul Basaksehir65%
Draw22%
Genclerbirligi14%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Sansalan
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.59
- Matches 17
Team strength
Istanbul BasaksehirGenclerbirligi
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
32
AttackIn forecast
13
34
DefenceIn forecast
16
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Istanbul BasaksehirGenclerbirligi
1.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.07
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.39
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
79%
Scored inContext
61%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
12.64
ShotsContext
10.04
4.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
35%
On target shareContext
32%
8.84
Shots in the boxContext
5.96
66%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.68
OffsidesContext
1.96
12.39
Shots allowedContext
14.57
4.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.46
3.81
BlocksContext
4.26
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
75%
Save rateContext
70%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
427
PassesContext
305
361
Accurate passesContext
239
84%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.54
FoulsContext
12.32
13.14
Fouls sufferedContext
12.89
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.11
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
0.70
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
70%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.00
ShotsContext
9.60
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.13
39%
On target shareContext
26%
9.75
Shots in the boxContext
5.56
71%
Box shareContext
53%
12%
ConversionContext
6%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.63
11.90
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.90
BlocksContext
4.22
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
72%
Save rateContext
76%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
418
PassesContext
304
349
Accurate passesContext
236
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.68
12.90
FoulsContext
13.10
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km394 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genclerbirligi
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel352 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Istanbul Basaksehir |
Genclerbirligi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 6 Apr | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 394 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
21C. Opéri
3J. Opoku
5Léo Duarte
42Ö. Şahiner
20U. Güneş
8O. Kemen
77I. Brnić
14E. Shomurodov
7Y. Sarı
91B. Yıldırım
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
24Ricardo Velho(G)
23M. Hanousek
4Žan Žužek
2T. da Silva
13Pedro Pereira
15A. Dele-Bashiru
7H. Onyekuru
70F. Tongya
35O. Ülgün
11G. Gürpüz
22S. Koïta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Istanbul Basaksehir
Absences are shown before kick-off
Genclerbirligi
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Istanbul Basaksehir+1.3 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Genclerbirligi-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Istanbul Basaksehir · Home
1.50points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-6-3
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 1.21
Genclerbirligi · Away
0.43points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-10
- Scored
- 0.64
- Conceded
- 1.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Istanbul Basaksehir | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | D 0–0 HW 4–0 A | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Goztepe | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Konyaspor | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Besiktas | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Rizespor | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Kayserispor | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 5–1 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Samsunspor | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 AL 1–3 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 3–4 H | W 4–3 H |
| Points | 44 of 81 · 1.63 per game | 22 of 81 · 0.81 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Istanbul Basaksehir wins0 draws1 Genclerbirligi wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 7 Nov 2025Genclerbirligi2–1Istanbul Basaksehir
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.07 | 1.39 | |
| Match goals | 2.64 | 2.39 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 54% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 39% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.00 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 4.19 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.19 | 5.37 | |
| Match total | 9.86 | 9.56 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 16/27 | 70% 19/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 14/27 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 13/27 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.32 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.39 | 2.04 | |
| Match total | 4.68 | 4.36 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 19/28 | 57% 16/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 14/28 | 46% 13/28 | |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.20 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 10.20 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.50 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Sansalan Türkiye · 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.82league 4.41
Red cards0.24league 0.21
Cards 5+59%league 45%
Fouls24.6league 26.1
Penalties0.59league 0.27
Home wins59%league 40%
Istanbul Basaksehir1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W22 Dec 25H · Gazişehir Gaziantep5–13
Genclerbirligi1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L9 Feb 26A · Fenerbahce1–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Istanbul Basaksehir28 games · scored 44 · conceded 30
4
0-15
7
2
16-30
7
8
31-45
7
4
46-60
9
8
61-75
10
8
76-90
Genclerbirligi28 games · scored 28 · conceded 39
4
2
0-15
5
4
16-30
4
10
31-45
5
7
46-60
4
8
61-75
6
8
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
