Istanbul Basaksehir
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Istanbul Basaksehir
6th · 44 pts · 28 played
WWLDD
3–0Full time
Genclerbirligi
15th · 25 pts · 28 played
DDLLL
Istanbul Basaksehir65.7%fair odds 1.52
Draw21.2%fair odds 4.72
Genclerbirligi13.1%fair odds 7.62
Expected goals2.03 – 0.79total 2.82
Likeliest score2–012.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Genclerbirligi
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Istanbul Basaksehir ↓ · Genclerbirligi → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Istanbul Basaksehir goals, columns Genclerbirligi goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–012.3%8.14
- 1–011.6%8.61
- 1–110.1%9.92
- 2–19.7%10.31
- 3–08.3%12.06
- 3–16.6%15.26
- 0–06.5%15.40
- 0–14.2%23.70
- 4–04.2%23.80
- 2–23.8%26.09
Winning margin
21.1%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 3+
fair 4.73
20.3%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 2
fair 4.93
24.3%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 1
fair 4.12
21.2%
Draw
fair 4.72
9.2%
Genclerbirligi by 1
fair 10.92
3.1%
Genclerbirligi by 2
fair 32.41
0.9%
Genclerbirligi by 3+
fair 113.84
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Istanbul Basaksehir goals
13%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
15%4+
Genclerbirligi goals
45%0
36%1
14%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir win | 65.7% | 64.9% | +0.8 pp |
| Draw | 21.2% | 21.6% | -0.4 pp |
| Genclerbirligi win | 13.1% | 13.6% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 52.7% | +0.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.9% | 47.8% | +0.1 pp |
| Expected goals Istanbul Basaksehir | 2.03 | 1.99 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Genclerbirligi | 0.79 | 0.79 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Istanbul Basaksehir win65.7%1.52
- Draw21.2%4.72
- Genclerbirligi win13.1%7.62
- Double chance Istanbul Basaksehir or draw86.9%1.15
- Double chance Istanbul Basaksehir or Genclerbirligi78.8%1.27
- Double chance Genclerbirligi or draw34.3%2.92
- Draw no bet Istanbul Basaksehir83.4%1.20
- Draw no bet Genclerbirligi16.6%6.01
Goals
- Over 0.593.5%1.07
- Over 1.577.7%1.29
- Over 2.553.4%1.87
- Over 3.531.2%3.21
- Over 4.515.5%6.46
- Under 1.522.3%4.48
- Under 2.546.6%2.15
- Under 3.568.8%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes47.9%2.09
- No52.1%1.92
- Yes and over 2.537.8%2.64
- Istanbul Basaksehir win and yes26.8%3.73
- Draw and yes14.7%6.82
- Genclerbirligi win and yes6.4%15.55
Team goals
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 0.586.8%1.15
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 1.560.1%1.66
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 2.533.0%3.03
- Genclerbirligi over 0.554.6%1.83
- Genclerbirligi over 1.518.8%5.33
- Genclerbirligi over 2.54.6%21.74
- Istanbul Basaksehir clean sheet45.4%2.20
- Genclerbirligi clean sheet13.2%7.58
- Istanbul Basaksehir win to nil38.9%2.57
- Genclerbirligi win to nil6.7%14.94
Handicap
- Istanbul Basaksehir −1.541.4%2.41
- Istanbul Basaksehir −2.521.1%4.73
- Genclerbirligi +1.558.6%1.71
- Genclerbirligi +2.578.9%1.27
- Genclerbirligi −1.54.0%25.23
- Istanbul Basaksehir +1.596.0%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored253
Favourite won52.2%
Avg chance given to result40.9%
1X2 Brier0.583
Over 2.5 called right53.8%
BTTS called right52.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 39 | 38.2% | 38.5% |
| 40–50% | 101 | 44.1% | 41.6% |
| 50–60% | 65 | 55.0% | 58.5% |
| 60–70% | 28 | 65.3% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 75.7% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 82.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 203 of 253 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5871 | 0.5723 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.7% | 42.0% |
| Favourite won | 53.7% | 54.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 203 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Besiktas 4–2 Antalyaspor68·19·13
- ✓Rizespor 4–1 Samsunspor39·27·34
- ✓Goztepe 1–3 Galatasaray30·26·44
- ✗Kocaelispor 0–0 Istanbul Basaksehir33·27·39
- ✓Fenerbahce 1–0 Besiktas45·26·29
- ✓Antalyaspor 3–0 Eyüpspor38·28·34
- ✗Samsunspor 2–2 Konyaspor46·27·27
- ✗Fatih Karagümrük 2–1 Rizespor32·29·40
- ✓Trabzonspor 2–1 Galatasaray39·25·36
- ✗Gazişehir Gaziantep 1–1 Alanyaspor42·27·31
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 253 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.