Istanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Istanbul Basaksehir
6th · 39 pts · 24 played
DWLWW
2–1Full time
Goztepe
5th · 42 pts · 24 played
WDDLD
Our take
Istanbul Basaksehir were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Istanbul Basaksehir. Istanbul Basaksehir had 7.8 days of rest, Goztepe 6.8 and had to travel 328 km.
Away travel328 kmRest days7.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Istanbul Basaksehir53%
Draw26%
Goztepe21%
Istanbul Basaksehir46%
Draw26%
Goztepe27%
Istanbul Basaksehir55%
Draw25%
Goztepe20%
Istanbul Basaksehir46%
Draw27%
Goztepe27%
Istanbul Basaksehir52%
Draw26%
Goztepe22%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeYasin Kol
- Cards per match 5.7
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 33
Team strength
Istanbul BasaksehirGoztepe
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
32
AttackIn forecast
39
34
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGoztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Istanbul BasaksehirGoztepe
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.08
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
88%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
58%
12.96
ShotsContext
12.92
4.54
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.39
35%
On target shareContext
33%
8.78
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
65%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
1.65
OffsidesContext
1.85
12.04
Shots allowedContext
11.58
4.08
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.64
3.86
BlocksContext
3.57
3.08
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.95
76%
Save rateContext
81%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
432
PassesContext
248
367
Accurate passesContext
171
85%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.04
FoulsContext
16.75
13.13
Fouls sufferedContext
9.38
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.86
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
100%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.70
ShotsContext
12.90
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
40%
On target shareContext
32%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
70%
Box shareContext
65%
16%
ConversionContext
8%
1.17
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.70
Shots allowedContext
12.10
3.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.38
4.00
BlocksContext
3.90
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
74%
Save rateContext
74%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
441
PassesContext
249
376
Accurate passesContext
172
85%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.76
14.10
FoulsContext
16.50
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Goztepe
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel328 km656 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Istanbul Basaksehir |
Goztepe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 27 Feb | 6.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 328 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 962 km | 656 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
3J. Opoku
2B. Özdemir
5Léo Duarte
20U. Güneş
21C. Opéri
11A. Fayzullaev
7Y. Sarı
42Ö. Şahiner
14E. Shomurodov
9D. Selke
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
3Allan
15A. Cherni
20N. Miroshi
30A. Dennis
77O. Bayrak
8A. Antunes
9Juan
19Jeh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Istanbul Basaksehir
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Goztepe
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Istanbul Basaksehir-1.9 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Goztepe+1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Istanbul Basaksehir · Home
1.42points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-3
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.33
Goztepe · Away
1.58points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-3
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 0.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Istanbul Basaksehir | Goztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Besiktas | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A | L 0–4 AW 3–0 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Rizespor | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Kayserispor | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 5–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Samsunspor | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 3–4 H | L 1–2 H |
| Genclerbirligi | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 4–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Galatasaray | L 1–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 39 of 69 · 1.70 per game | 39 of 69 · 1.70 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Istanbul Basaksehir wins0 draws2 Goztepe wins
Goals per game1.67 – 2.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 5 Oct 2025Goztepe1–0Istanbul Basaksehir
- 28 Apr 2025Goztepe4–1Istanbul Basaksehir
- 30 Nov 2024Istanbul Basaksehir4–1Goztepe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.08 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 1.79 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 58% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 33% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 58% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 33% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 1.90 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 4.58 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 9.41 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 15/23 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 13/23 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 12/23 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.46 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.54 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.92 | 4.71 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 18/24 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 54% 13/24 | 42% 10/24 | |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 10.00 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.10 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yasin Kol 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.27league 4.41
Red cards0.42league 0.21
Cards 5+64%league 45%
Fouls26.8league 26.0
Penalties0.30league 0.25
Home wins33%league 38%
Istanbul Basaksehir2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 Jan 26H · Fatih Karagümrük2–12
- D5 Oct 24H · Kayserispor1–11
Goztepe6 with this referee
Record2-4-0
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- D8 Feb 26A · Konyaspor0–04
- W21 Dec 25H · Samsunspor2–01
- W1 Nov 25H · Genclerbirligi1–00
- D16 Aug 25H · Fenerbahce0–07
- D16 Mar 25H · Eyüpspor1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Istanbul Basaksehir24 games · scored 42 · conceded 26
3
0-15
7
2
16-30
7
7
31-45
7
3
46-60
8
7
61-75
10
7
76-90
Goztepe24 games · scored 27 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
6
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 23 · conceded 10
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
4
61-75
6
2
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
