Istanbul Basaksehir
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Istanbul Basaksehir
6th · 39 pts · 24 played
DWLWW
2–1Full time
Goztepe
5th · 42 pts · 24 played
WDDLD
Istanbul Basaksehir52.9%fair odds 1.89
Draw25.8%fair odds 3.88
Goztepe21.3%fair odds 4.69
Expected goals1.65 – 0.96total 2.61
Likeliest score1–112.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Goztepe
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Istanbul Basaksehir ↓ · Goztepe → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Istanbul Basaksehir goals, columns Goztepe goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%8.15
- 1–011.5%8.69
- 2–010.0%10.00
- 2–19.6%10.41
- 0–08.0%12.54
- 0–16.4%15.51
- 1–25.6%17.87
- 3–05.5%18.18
- 3–15.3%18.93
- 2–24.6%21.67
Winning margin
12.4%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 3+
fair 8.04
16.5%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 2
fair 6.08
24.0%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 1
fair 4.16
25.8%
Draw
fair 3.88
13.7%
Goztepe by 1
fair 7.28
5.6%
Goztepe by 2
fair 17.93
2.0%
Goztepe by 3+
fair 49.44
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Istanbul Basaksehir goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
9%4+
Goztepe goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir win | 52.9% | 52.0% | +0.9 pp |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.9% | -0.1 pp |
| Goztepe win | 21.3% | 22.1% | -0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.4% | 48.6% | -0.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.5% | 51.0% | -0.5 pp |
| Expected goals Istanbul Basaksehir | 1.65 | 1.64 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Goztepe | 0.96 | 0.98 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Istanbul Basaksehir win52.9%1.89
- Draw25.8%3.88
- Goztepe win21.3%4.69
- Double chance Istanbul Basaksehir or draw78.7%1.27
- Double chance Istanbul Basaksehir or Goztepe74.2%1.35
- Double chance Goztepe or draw47.1%2.12
- Draw no bet Istanbul Basaksehir71.3%1.40
- Draw no bet Goztepe28.7%3.48
Goals
- Over 0.592.0%1.09
- Over 1.574.1%1.35
- Over 2.548.4%2.07
- Over 3.526.6%3.76
- Over 4.512.4%8.07
- Under 1.525.9%3.86
- Under 2.551.6%1.94
- Under 3.573.4%1.36
Both teams to score
- Yes50.5%1.98
- No49.5%2.02
- Yes and over 2.538.2%2.62
- Istanbul Basaksehir win and yes22.6%4.42
- Draw and yes17.8%5.62
- Goztepe win and yes10.1%9.91
Team goals
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 0.580.8%1.24
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 1.549.1%2.04
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 2.522.9%4.36
- Goztepe over 0.561.7%1.62
- Goztepe over 1.525.0%4.00
- Goztepe over 2.57.3%13.66
- Istanbul Basaksehir clean sheet38.3%2.61
- Goztepe clean sheet19.2%5.20
- Istanbul Basaksehir win to nil30.3%3.30
- Goztepe win to nil11.2%8.89
Handicap
- Istanbul Basaksehir −1.528.9%3.46
- Istanbul Basaksehir −2.512.4%8.04
- Goztepe +1.571.1%1.41
- Goztepe +2.587.6%1.14
- Goztepe −1.57.6%13.16
- Istanbul Basaksehir +1.592.4%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored216
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result40.6%
1X2 Brier0.591
Over 2.5 called right53.2%
BTTS called right53.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 30 | 38.1% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 90 | 44.0% | 40.0% |
| 50–60% | 52 | 54.9% | 53.8% |
| 60–70% | 25 | 65.0% | 72.0% |
| 70–80% | 15 | 76.0% | 80.0% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 82.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 184 of 216 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5930 | 0.5811 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.5% | 41.6% |
| Favourite won | 51.6% | 52.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 184 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 216 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.