Istanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Istanbul Basaksehir were slight favourites.
Istanbul Basaksehir were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 19). Absences weigh more on Istanbul Basaksehir. Istanbul Basaksehir had ? days of rest, Kayserispor ? and had to travel 613 km.
Away travel613 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Istanbul Basaksehir52%
Draw25%
Kayserispor23%
Istanbul Basaksehir53%
Draw25%
Kayserispor22%
Istanbul Basaksehir53%
Draw25%
Kayserispor22%
Istanbul Basaksehir44%
Draw27%
Kayserispor29%
Istanbul Basaksehir51%
Draw25%
Kayserispor23%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeKadir Saglam
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 3
Team strength
Istanbul Basaksehir
Kayserispor
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
32
AttackIn forecast
16
34
DefenceIn forecast
17
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Istanbul BasaksehirKayserispor
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
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—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
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—
ConversionContext
—
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
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BlocksContext
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—
Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
2.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
2.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.67
ShotsContext
9.00
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
36%
On target shareContext
49%
9.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
67%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
20%
3.17
OffsidesContext
2.56
15.67
Shots allowedContext
16.50
6.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.56
BlocksContext
4.78
4.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
66%
Save rateContext
79%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
417
PassesContext
343
346
Accurate passesContext
274
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.97
11.78
FoulsContext
11.60
15.33
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kayserispor
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel613 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Istanbul Basaksehir |
Kayserispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 613 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
6O. Bulut
3J. Opoku
5Léo Duarte
36F. Ebosele
77I. Brnić
20U. Güneş
4O. Ergün
23D. Türüç
14E. Shomurodov
10Nuno da Costa
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
25B. Bayazıt(G)
23L. Carole
4S. Denswil
5S. Hosseini
11G. Sazdağı
79Y. Ackah
37G. Jung
7Miguel Cardoso
10João Mendes
20Carlos Mané
30A. Opoku
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Istanbul Basaksehir
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kayserispor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Istanbul Basaksehir-1.4 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Kayserispor+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Istanbul Basaksehir · Home
No home games yet this season.
Kayserispor · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Istanbul Basaksehir wins2 draws2 Kayserispor wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 8 Mar 2025Kayserispor3–1Istanbul Basaksehir
- 5 Oct 2024Istanbul Basaksehir1–1Kayserispor
- 19 Feb 2024Istanbul Basaksehir2–3Kayserispor
- 2 Oct 2023Kayserispor0–0Istanbul Basaksehir
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 54% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 54% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 8.42 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.63 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 9.13 | 10.78 | 8.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.00 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kadir Saglam Türkiye · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.58
Red cards0.00league 0.50
Cards 5+33%league 42%
Fouls27.3league 25.6
Penalties0.00league 0.42
Home wins67%league 42%
Istanbul Basaksehir1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L28 Apr 25A · Goztepe1–42
Kayserispor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D25 May 25H · BB Bodrumspor1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Istanbul BasaksehirKayserisporIstanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 20 · conceded 19
2
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
7
5
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
