Istanbul Basaksehir
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Istanbul Basaksehir52.0%fair odds 1.92
Draw25.1%fair odds 3.98
Kayserispor22.8%fair odds 4.38
Expected goals1.71 – 1.06total 2.77
Likeliest score1–112.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Kayserispor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Istanbul Basaksehir ↓ · Kayserispor → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Istanbul Basaksehir goals, columns Kayserispor goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%8.36
- 1–010.1%9.88
- 2–19.7%10.29
- 2–09.2%10.90
- 0–06.9%14.56
- 0–16.0%16.58
- 1–26.0%16.64
- 3–15.5%18.05
- 3–05.2%19.11
- 2–25.1%19.44
Winning margin
12.7%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 3+
fair 7.90
16.1%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 2
fair 6.20
23.3%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 1
fair 4.30
25.1%
Draw
fair 3.98
14.2%
Kayserispor by 1
fair 7.06
6.2%
Kayserispor by 2
fair 16.19
2.5%
Kayserispor by 3+
fair 40.11
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Istanbul Basaksehir goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Kayserispor goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir win | 52.0% | 51.4% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 25.1% | 25.3% | -0.2 pp |
| Kayserispor win | 22.8% | 23.2% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.3% | 52.0% | +0.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.1% | 54.0% | +0.1 pp |
| Expected goals Istanbul Basaksehir | 1.71 | 1.69 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Kayserispor | 1.06 | 1.06 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Istanbul Basaksehir win52.0%1.92
- Draw25.1%3.98
- Kayserispor win22.8%4.38
- Double chance Istanbul Basaksehir or draw77.2%1.30
- Double chance Istanbul Basaksehir or Kayserispor74.9%1.34
- Double chance Kayserispor or draw48.0%2.09
- Draw no bet Istanbul Basaksehir69.5%1.44
- Draw no bet Kayserispor30.5%3.28
Goals
- Over 0.593.1%1.07
- Over 1.577.0%1.30
- Over 2.552.3%1.91
- Over 3.530.1%3.32
- Over 4.514.8%6.77
- Under 1.523.0%4.34
- Under 2.547.7%2.10
- Under 3.569.9%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes54.1%1.85
- No45.9%2.18
- Yes and over 2.542.2%2.37
- Istanbul Basaksehir win and yes24.2%4.13
- Draw and yes18.3%5.48
- Kayserispor win and yes11.6%8.60
Team goals
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 0.581.9%1.22
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 1.551.0%1.96
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 2.524.6%4.07
- Kayserispor over 0.565.3%1.53
- Kayserispor over 1.528.6%3.50
- Kayserispor over 2.59.1%10.94
- Istanbul Basaksehir clean sheet34.7%2.88
- Kayserispor clean sheet18.1%5.54
- Istanbul Basaksehir win to nil27.8%3.60
- Kayserispor win to nil11.2%8.93
Handicap
- Istanbul Basaksehir −1.528.8%3.47
- Istanbul Basaksehir −2.512.7%7.90
- Kayserispor +1.571.2%1.40
- Kayserispor +2.587.3%1.14
- Kayserispor −1.58.7%11.53
- Istanbul Basaksehir +1.591.3%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored12
Favourite won41.7%
Avg chance given to result41.8%
1X2 Brier0.562
Over 2.5 called right50.0%
BTTS called right33.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.3% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 6 | 45.5% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 1 | 55.3% | 0.0% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 62.0% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 78.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 6 of 12 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5139 | 0.4723 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.8% | 46.6% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 6 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 12 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.