Istanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Istanbul Basaksehir
11th · 10 pts · 10 played
LLLDW
1–0Full time
Kocaelispor
10th · 11 pts · 10 played
DLWWW
Our take
Istanbul Basaksehir were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Istanbul Basaksehir had 5.2 days of rest, Kocaelispor 6.1 and had to travel 197 km.
Away travel197 kmRest days5.2 · 6.1Matches / 14d3 · 2
Istanbul Basaksehir45%
Draw26%
Kocaelispor29%
Istanbul Basaksehir45%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor29%
Istanbul Basaksehir45%
Draw26%
Kocaelispor28%
Istanbul Basaksehir38%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor36%
Istanbul Basaksehir44%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor29%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeBatuhan Kolak
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 7
Team strength
Istanbul BasaksehirKocaelispor
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
32
AttackIn forecast
16
34
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Istanbul BasaksehirKocaelispor
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
70%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.10
ShotsContext
9.40
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
33%
On target shareContext
34%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
60%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.80
12.10
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.44
BlocksContext
3.40
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
79%
Save rateContext
68%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
439
PassesContext
338
373
Accurate passesContext
264
85%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.67
12.20
FoulsContext
14.90
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
70%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.80
ShotsContext
9.40
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
33%
On target shareContext
34%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
61%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.80
12.60
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.56
BlocksContext
3.40
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
76%
Save rateContext
68%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
437
PassesContext
338
371
Accurate passesContext
264
85%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.67
12.70
FoulsContext
14.90
13.90
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,902 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Kocaelispor
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel197 km946 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Istanbul Basaksehir |
Kocaelispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 6.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,902 km | 946 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
42Ö. Şahiner
3J. Opoku
5Léo Duarte
6O. Bulut
20U. Güneş
2B. Özdemir
10Nuno da Costa
13Miguel Crespo
7Y. Sarı
14E. Shomurodov
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
1A. Jovanovic
2A. Dijksteel
6H. Smolčić
5B. Balogh
22A. Oğuz
14Show
8H. Keïta
75T. Bingöl
10K. Linetty
7Daniel Agyei
19S. Dursun
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Istanbul Basaksehir
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kocaelispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Istanbul Basaksehir-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Kocaelispor+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Istanbul Basaksehir · Home
0.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-1
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Kocaelispor · Away
0.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Istanbul Basaksehir | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Rizespor | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Konyaspor | L 1–2 A | W 3–2 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Besiktas | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Eyüpspor | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 4 of 18 · 0.67 per game | 11 of 18 · 1.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.40 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.40 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 8.45 | 9.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 8.45 | 9.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.30 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 6.20 | 5.50 | 5.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Batuhan Kolak 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.14league 4.74
Red cards0.14league 0.29
Cards 5+29%league 56%
Fouls24.3league 26.4
Penalties0.14league 0.28
Home wins14%league 37%
Istanbul BasaksehirNo previous matches with this referee.
KocaelisporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
