Istanbul Basaksehir vs Trabzonspor – 24 Nov 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 13 Mon, Nov 24 · 17:00 Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, İstanbul

Istanbul Basaksehir 12th · 13 pts · 12 played LDWWL

3–4Full time

Trabzonspor 3rd · 25 pts · 12 played WWWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 26). Istanbul Basaksehir had 17 days of rest, Trabzonspor 16.1 and had to travel 904 km.

Away travel904 kmRest days17 · 16.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Istanbul Basaksehir36%

Draw26%

Trabzonspor37%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.43

Istanbul Basaksehir35%

Draw27%

Trabzonspor37%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.36

Istanbul Basaksehir36%

Draw27%

Trabzonspor37%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.40

Istanbul Basaksehir29%

Draw26%

Trabzonspor45%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.60

Istanbul Basaksehir36%

Draw27%

Trabzonspor38%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.38

Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 21

Team strength

Istanbul Basaksehir

Trabzonspor

26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 38

36 Current StrengthIn forecast 46

32 AttackIn forecast 54

35 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Istanbul Basaksehir

Attack—

Defense risk—

Trabzonspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Istanbul Basaksehir

Trabzonspor

1.08 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.92 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.67

1.15 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.33

75% Scored inContext 83%

42% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.08 ShotsContext 13.58

3.58 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

30% On target shareContext 33%

8.18 Shots in the boxContext 9.09

62% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.20

12.25 Shots allowedContext 14.50

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.36 BlocksContext 4.36

3.42 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

80% Save rateContext 90%

58% PossessionIn forecast 50%

445 PassesContext 400

381 Accurate passesContext 338

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.88 Team ratingContext 7.01

11.67 FoulsContext 11.92

14.25 Fouls sufferedContext 14.17

2.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.17

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.41

80% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.20 ShotsContext 14.10

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

29% On target shareContext 37%

8.22 Shots in the boxContext 9.89

60% Box shareContext 65%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.22

12.60 Shots allowedContext 15.40

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.67 BlocksContext 4.78

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.25

81% Save rateContext 90%

58% PossessionIn forecast 49%

452 PassesContext 396

388 Accurate passesContext 335

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.86 Team ratingContext 7.00

10.80 FoulsContext 12.10

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Istanbul Basaksehir

Rest17 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Trabzonspor

Rest16.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel904 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Istanbul Basaksehir	Trabzonspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	17Süper Lig 2025-2026, 7 Nov	16.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	904 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Istanbul Basaksehir Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16M. Şengezer(G)

36F. Ebosele 27O. Ba 5Léo Duarte 6O. Bulut

20U. Güneş 8O. Kemen

25A. Harit 14E. Shomurodov 23D. Türüç

9D. Selke

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Trabzonspor Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

24A. Onana(G)

19M. Eskihellaç 44A. Batagov 5O. Yokuşlu 20Wagner Pina

26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli 42Christ Inao Oulaï

22O. Zubkov 99F. da Silva 7E. Višća

30E. Onuachu

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Istanbul Basaksehir Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Trabzonspor Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Istanbul Basaksehir+0.1 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Trabzonspor+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Istanbul Basaksehir · Home 1.20points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 1-3-1
Scored: 0.80
Conceded: 0.80

Trabzonspor · Away 2.00points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-1
Scored: 1.40
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 8 this season

Opponent	Istanbul Basaksehir	Trabzonspor
Kocaelispor	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 H
Antalyaspor	W 4–0 A	W 1–0 H
Rizespor	D 0–0 A	W 2–1 A
Galatasaray	L 1–2 H	D 0–0 A
Alanyaspor	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Fatih Karagümrük	W 2–0 A	W 4–3 A
Eyüpspor	D 0–0 H	W 2–0 H
Kayserispor	D 1–1 H	W 4–0 H
Points	13 of 24 · 1.63 per game	20 of 24 · 2.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Istanbul Basaksehir wins1 draws3 Trabzonspor wins

Goals per game0.25 – 1.50 Over 2.525% Both scored25% Clean sheets0% · 75%

15 Mar 2025Istanbul Basaksehir0–3Trabzonspor
19 Oct 2024Trabzonspor1–0Istanbul Basaksehir
18 May 2024Istanbul Basaksehir0–1Trabzonspor
23 Dec 2023Trabzonspor1–1Istanbul Basaksehir

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Istanbul Basaksehir	Trabzonspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.08	1.50
Conceded per game	0.92	0.67
Match goals	2.00	2.17	2.83
Over 1.5	67%	58%
Over 2.5	42%	25%	54%
Over 3.5	8%	17%
Both teams scored	50%	42%	58%
Clean sheets	42%	50%
Failed to score	25%	17%
Games	12	12

	Istanbul Basaksehir	Trabzonspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.60
Conceded per game	1.00	0.80
Match goals	2.20	2.40	2.83
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	54%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	58%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Istanbul Basaksehir	Trabzonspor	League
Corners
Corners won	5.75	4.20
Corners conceded	4.58	5.20
Match total	10.33	9.40	9.54
Over 8.5	83% 10/12	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	67% 8/12	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	58% 7/12	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.42	1.67
Opponent cards	3.00	2.33
Match total	5.42	4.00	4.82
Over 3.5	83% 10/12	58% 7/12
Over 4.5	67% 8/12	33% 4/12

	Istanbul Basaksehir	Trabzonspor	League
Corners
Corners won	5.90	4.38
Corners conceded	4.40	5.13
Match total	10.30	9.51	9.54
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.60
Opponent cards	3.10	2.60
Match total	5.50	4.20	4.82
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 21 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.67league 4.52

Red cards0.19league 0.27

Cards 5+57%league 49%

Fouls24.8league 26.0

Penalties0.19league 0.26

Home wins29%league 37%

Istanbul Basaksehir

No previous matches with this referee.

Trabzonspor2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W18 Oct 25A · Rizespor2–10
D5 May 25A · Kasimpasa1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.